This distribution phase feels like a massive change of hands.
Bitcoin investors' average cost basis is around $53K.
Historically, bear markets ended only after the price fell below the realized price. I thought that level would be hard to revisit, given institutional inflows and MSTR barely selling any BTC.
But current price action suggests unusually strong sell pressure.
• Since Jan 2023, MSTR bought 711,206 BTC and sold only 32 BTC, removing 711,174 BTC from circulation.
• Since BTC was also $63K in Mar 2024, ETFs absorbed 509,102 BTC and MSTR bought 650,706 BTC. That is 1,240,808 BTC absorbed, yet price is back at the same level.
• For context, exchange reserves are around 2.7M BTC, and Satoshi is estimated to hold around 1M BTC.
More BTC than Satoshi’s stack, nearly half of exchange reserves, has been absorbed, and price is still back at the same level.
🚨 SOMETHING MIGHT HAVE BROKEN INSIDE MICHAEL SAYLOR’S BITCOIN MACHINE.
$STRC was designed to stay near $100 forever. Strategy launched it in July 2025, raised $2.5 BILLION from investors, and used that money to buy more Bitcoin.
In return, investors got an 11.5% yearly yield paid monthly in cash.
The entire structure depended on one thing: keep the price near $100.
If STRC dropped below $100, Strategy could raise the dividend to attract buyers back. That is why STRC stayed stable for months.
Now the system is cracking and STRC just dropped to $94.84.
But Why?
Three things hit at the same time
• Bitcoin dumped toward $67K
• Strategy sold Bitcoin for the first time in 4 years
• Investors are now questioning how sustainable the dividends really are
The company sold 32 BTC worth $2.5 MILLION specifically to help fund STRC dividend payments.
That may sound small. But it completely breaks the never sell Bitcoin narrative Saylor built for years.
Markets are now pricing in the possibility that Strategy may eventually need to sell more BTC to support nearly $1.7 BILLION in yearly preferred dividend obligations.
At the same time, Strategy refused to raise the STRC dividend above 11.5% for the fourth straight month even as competitors started offering higher yields.
Strive is now offering 13% on a competing product. The entire trade now depends on one thing:
Bitcoin going higher.
Because if BTC keeps falling, pressure on the entire Strategy structure starts rising very fast.
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