ETM Analytics

Global macro and financial market intelligence for professional traders and asset managers.
Independent macro heretics | Est. 2004

[ETM Analytics @etmanalytics]

Big shift in market implied rates outlook. Risk is for a 25 bpt hike this Thursday at the South African Reserve Bank MPC #bank #MPC #interestrates

[ETM Analytics @etmanalytics]

Global bonds facing the worst year in a decade, African bonds remain resilient. For more insight on this topic see ETM's latest strategy note at https://t.co/JpOetUqf1m.
#bonds #fixedincome #africa #marketstrategy

[ETM Analytics @etmanalytics]

The fears surrounding Chinese property giant Evergrande have hit emerging markets and risk assets hard. ETM remains focused on the fall out and will unpack the impact to the markets it covers as new insights and information becomes available. https://t.co/JpOetUqf1m

[ETM Analytics @etmanalytics]

SA Retail sales hit hard in July, reflecting looting and pessimistic consumer confidence see https://t.co/JpOetUqf1m for full breakdown

[ETM Analytics @etmanalytics]

The following chart shows the rise in shipping costs. Corporates struggle with both the logistical bottlenecks and the rising shipping rates. How does this impact inflation and longer term price pressures Talk to us, https://t.co/JpOetUqf1m

[ETM Analytics @etmanalytics]

Out Today: The South Africa Q3 TransUnion Consumer Credit Index.

https://t.co/sQFJbOeiZC

Index remained weak in Q3 on the back of weak income growth estimates and elevated defaults. Payment holidays and low rates limiting credit distress for now.

[Russell Lamberti @RussLamberti]

This is getting widely shared with nearly 15,000 views across various platforms in 48 hours. Watch 👇

The Definitive SA Lockdown Presentation
https://t.co/HAg1ut6gvS

[ETM Analytics @etmanalytics]

Advocates for lockdown failed to consider that the economy is our most important life-support system – shutting it down does grave harm to life, health and human well-being.

ETM supports Business for Ending Lockdown (B4EL).
https://t.co/SvAzmCyjai

[ETM Analytics @etmanalytics]

The same data but looked at in another way. Annualised deficit in ZAR billion. Few things as permanent as a temporary government deficit.

[ETM Analytics @etmanalytics]

Chart of the week: Tracking South African government revenue and spending. Money in, money out. Revenue problem or spending problem?

[ETM Analytics @etmanalytics]

"Repayment holidays are ending in Q3. Some credit providers will need to restructure terms of loans to further mitigate consumer burdens." "...costs
will escalate as life slowly gets back to normal."

[ETM Analytics @etmanalytics]

The @TransUnionSA Consumer Credit Index for Q2 2020 is out today: https://t.co/JlCh5qOhu2

The result may seem surprisingly good given COV19 lockdown, but much more hardship is expected in Q3.

[ETM Analytics @etmanalytics]

"New defaults increased by an estimated 21% from Q2 2019 after rising 5% y/y in Q1. On a seasonally adjusted basis, the rate of new defaults increased by 11% during the quarter, the highest rate on record since 2006."

[Russell Lamberti @RussLamberti]

Register below for today's webinar (at 11:00 SA time) where I will talk with Andile Group CEO Andries Brink on 'The Race between Innovation and Plunder.'

Register: https://t.co/OmkwgcPSme

[ETM Analytics @etmanalytics]

Chart of the week: Lockdown stringency vs GDP growth - Q1 2020.

[ETM Analytics @etmanalytics]

Thanks John. The April PMI number surprised us. @RussLamberti did the necessary digging. Mystery solved. US PMI suffers from the same anomaly - beware!

[Russell Lamberti @RussLamberti]

Some responses to this thread.

1. The economic losses are implicitly IN ADDITION to those expected from a global recession. We shd make that explicit in the paper, thanks. We estimate lockdown to be around 3-5x worse for GDP than non-lockdown (depending on duration).

[ETM Analytics @etmanalytics]

For those who believe that the lockdown should continue, please read through the following article carefully. Then decide whether you indeed believe that destructing the economy serves our objectives as a country

https://t.co/QtfSu3XfSY