evabc

[evabc @evabcyy]

市场无圣杯 走势终完美
如果市场存在一个最接近圣杯的交易体系 那只会是趋势交易
但绝不是技术分析流派中的各种技法
识别趋势绝对不是仅仅看k线就能判断的

[evabc @evabcyy]

价值投资
刚接触技术分析的人会看不上价值投资 认为价值投资的群体不懂技术
但本质上价投与技术本质的核心都是识别趋势 技术在k线上识别趋势
价投在公司本质上识别趋势 核心都是识别趋势
越到后面越会感受到技术分析的局限性

[evabc @evabcyy]

技术分析对于识别趋势的作用十分有限 很多人过于推崇各种技法 smc pa ict 缠论 威科夫 道式 本质上这些技法的核心都只是把k线进行分型

[evabc @evabcyy]

技术分析
趋势交易中突破与趋势的关系与公鸡打鸣与太阳升起的关系是一样的
是因为太阳升起 所以公鸡打鸣 并不是公鸡打鸣叫起了太阳
同理 是因为趋势来了 所以突破一个个swing high 并不是突破swing high就会迎来趋势
技术分析本质上只是把不同的品种进行不同阶段的分类 其作用十分有限

[柴郡🔔｜Crypto+AI Plus @0xCheshire]

价格行为分析 Skill
https://t.co/3UC3exSQYV

[Ray Dalio @RayDalio]

https://t.co/WTy8hynCmb

[Market RebellionHQ @RebellioMarket]

📂 Technical Analysis
┃
┣ 📂 Chart Setup
┃ ┣ 📂 Monthly Chart
┃ ┣ 📂 Weekly Chart
┃ ┣ 📂 Daily Chart
┃ ┣ 📂 Clean Candles
┃ ┗ 📂 "Top-down first"
┃
┣ 📂 Market Structure
┃ ┣ 📂 Higher Highs
┃ ┣ 📂 Higher Lows
┃ ┣ 📂 Lower Highs
┃ ┣ 📂 Lower Lows
┃ ┗ 📂 "Trend before trade"
┃
┣ 📂 Trend Analysis
┃ ┣ 📂 Uptrend
┃ ┣ 📂 Downtrend
┃ ┣ 📂 Sideways Range
┃ ┣ 📂 Trendline Check
┃ ┗ 📂 "Do not fight price"
┃
┣ 📂 Support & Resistance
┃ ┣ 📂 Fresh Support
┃ ┣ 📂 Major Resistance
┃ ┣ 📂 Zone Marking
┃ ┣ 📂 Multiple Touches
┃ ┗ 📂 "Levels matter"
┃
┣ 📂 Demand & Supply
┃ ┣ 📂 Demand Zone
┃ ┣ 📂 Supply Zone
┃ ┣ 📂 Strong Rejection
┃ ┣ 📂 Base Formation
┃ ┗ 📂 "Where institutions may act"
┃
┣ 📂 Candlestick Behaviour
┃ ┣ 📂 Bullish Engulfing
┃ ┣ 📂 Bearish Engulfing
┃ ┣ 📂 Pin Bar Rejection
┃ ┣ 📂 Inside Bar
┃ ┗ 📂 "Close tells the truth"
┃
┣ 📂 Breakouts & Breakdowns
┃ ┣ 📂 Range Breakout
┃ ┣ 📂 Trendline Break
┃ ┣ 📂 Support Breakdown
┃ ┣ 📂 Retest Entry
┃ ┗ 📂 "Real or trap?"
┃
┣ 📂 Volume Analysis
┃ ┣ 📂 Breakout Volume
┃ ┣ 📂 Dry Pullback
┃ ┣ 📂 Climax Volume
┃ ┣ 📂 Weak Participation
┃ ┗ 📂 "Volume confirms price"
┃
┣ 📂 Chart Patterns
┃ ┣ 📂 Ascending Triangle
┃ ┣ 📂 Descending Triangle
┃ ┣ 📂 Rectangle
┃ ┣ 📂 Flag & Pole
┃ ┗ 📂 "Pattern with context only"
┃
┣ 📂 Multi-Timeframe Check
┃ ┣ 📂 Monthly Bias
┃ ┣ 📂 Weekly Structure
┃ ┣ 📂 Daily Setup
┃ ┣ 📂 Lower TF Trigger
┃ ┗ 📂 "Alignment is power"
┃
┣ 📂 Trade Planning
┃ ┣ 📂 Entry Zone
┃ ┣ 📂 Stop Loss
┃ ┣ 📂 Target 1
┃ ┣ 📂 Target 2
┃ ┗ 📂 Risk-Reward Check
┃
┣ 📂 Risk Management
┃ ┣ 📂 Fixed Risk Per Trade
┃ ┣ 📂 Position Sizing
┃ ┣ 📂 No Revenge Trade
┃ ┣ 📂 Capital Protection
┃ ┗ 📂 "First survive"
┃
┣ 📂 Trade Execution
┃ ┣ 📂 Wait for Confirmation
┃ ┣ 📂 No Early Entry
┃ ┣ 📂 Follow the Plan
┃ ┣ 📂 Exit Without Ego
┃ ┗ 📂 "Discipline is edge"
┃
┣ 📂 Common Traps
┃ ┣ 📂 Fake Breakout
┃ ┣ 📂 Late Entry
┃ ┣ 📂 Overtrading
┃ ┣ 📂 Ignoring Volume
┃ ┗ 📂 "Market loves teaching fees"
┃
┣ 📂 Post-Trade Review
┃ ┣ 📂 Screenshot Saved
┃ ┣ 📂 Mistake Logged
┃ ┣ 📂 Setup Reviewed
┃ ┣ 📂 Lesson Noted
┃ ┗ 📂 "Journal or repeat pain"
┃
┗ 📂 Final Result
┣ 📂 Clean Setup
┣ 📂 Patient Entry
┣ 📂 Managed Risk
┣ 📂 Profitable Exit
┗ 📂 Stop Loss Also Respected

[Slimm 📌 @Sxliiim]

VWAP, orderbook, footprint, delta, 40 indicators… just to get outperformed by a guy drawing 3 boxes and 2 lines on a chart.

[CryptoAmsterdam @damskotrades]

https://t.co/V75wCdCqQ2

[Va♰oshi @Vatoshi]

I colored every place I would trade

I like to be confirmed more if using leverage and jump in to the biggest trend

[Back @backquant]

Been a while, but I've made some new @kiyotaka_ai tools. Here's a quick rundown:

1. Imbalance Bubbles
> When bid (or ask) liquidity dominates within a chosen depth band it plots a bubble. Bubble size scales with imbalance strength so you can see how skewed the book is at a glance.

2. Orderbook Imbalance Levels
> Turns orderbook bid/ ask pressure into dynamic support and resistance zones. Only showing where imbalances aligns with pivot structure, auto-invalidates when broken.

3. Funding Momentum
> Rate of change in funding rather than raw. Shows whether funding is accelerating or decelerating, helping catch positioning shift before extremes show up in the rate itself.

4. Funding/ OI Ratio
> Funding rate divided by the change in open interest. Highlights when funding is stretched relative to how much positioning is being actually added.

5. OI Delta/ Price Delta
> How much OI is expanding or contracting per unit of price movement. Tells you whether moves are backed by fresh leverage or just churn.

I've also posted some simpler tools like the Hull with Hull Crossover, and Rolling Sharpe Ratio.

Check them out and let me know what you think!

[iain @ohiain]

I used to pick perfect chart patterns in dying sectors and wonder why they never moved, until I learned to follow the money first.

I used to pick stocks in a vacuum. I'd find a beautiful chart pattern, enter with confidence, and watch it go nowhere while stocks in another sector ripped 20%.

That changed when I started treating sector rotation as my primary filter.

Here's a simple process you can follow:

Every Sunday, I review the eleven sector ETFs.

$XLK, $XLF, $XLE, $XLV, $XLY, $XLP, $XLI, $XLC, $XLRE, $XLB, and $XLU.

I'm looking at their weekly charts to see which sectors are absorbing capital and which are bleeding it.

I rank them by relative strength against $SPY and $QQQ over the past 4 and 12 weeks.

The top three get my attention.
The bottom three get blacklisted.

I don't care how pretty an individual stock looks if its sector is getting sold.

Then I drill down to individual stocks within the leading sectors. This is where stage analysis becomes a piece to the puzzle.

I'm hunting for stocks/sectors that have built large, multi month/year stage 1 bases... those long, choppy consolidations where a stock goes sideways after a prior move.

The longer the base, the bigger the potential move when it breaks out. I want to see multiple weeks built out on the weekly chart... but a great weekly base isn't enough.

I rotate down to the daily timeframe to assess if the risk/reward is actually there.

Is the stock coiling tight?
Are the daily candles contracting in range?
Is it riding along a rising 9/21 or 50EMA?

I'm looking for asymmetric setups where I can risk little to make 5-10x my risk. If the daily is too loose or choppy, I pass, even if the weekly looks perfect.

I also watch for the rotation warning signs.

When a leading sector starts making lower highs, or when its top holdings begin breaking support levels, I tighten stops and reduce exposure, because sector leadership doesn't last forever.

For example, within the recent months Technology led, then money rotated into financials and industrials.

The edge is to simply trade with the current, not against it.

When a sector has institutional money pouring in, individual stocks within it get lifted. Your mediocre setup in a hot sector will outperform a perfect setup in a weak one.

With this method, I'm no longer fighting the market's underlying currents.

I'm identifying where capital is flowing, finding stocks with big bases within those leading sectors, and waiting for the daily chart to tighten up before entry.

Keepin' it simple and repeatable!

[Koroush AK @KoroushAK]

https://t.co/iVaMWMwHVa