MONERO THESIS:
I don't think I have to point out the obvious privacy meta that IS happening.
A very concentrated trend of privacy integrated with AI has occurred recently:
- 9/18 NEAR announces confidential inference
- 9/22 NVIDIA publishes production benchmarks for confidential AI inference
- 9/30 Orbio announces Orbio Incognito
- 10/1 Ethereum Foundation announces zkAPI
These are obviously different applications of privacy, but I think they point toward a broader shift.
As more of our lives become integrated with AI, the value of controlling what information we disclose increases exponentially. Monero and Zcash address that at the monetary layer.
$ZEC is obviously an insanely promising product and will likely continue to grow. However, I have always found it hard to understand how it got so much more praise than Monero.
The central thesis of Zcash is privacy. It's a privacy coin. Yet, if the goal is to trade a privacy coin, why not trade the one so private that criminals willingly choose it over any other for anonymity?
Making transactions through Zcash is a nightmare, and being given the option to transact privately or publicly inherently removes guaranteed privacy. Privacy shouldn't depend on whether someone remembers to enable it, which wallet they're using, or whether they accidentally interact with a transparent address.
To be clear, I'm not arguing that Zcash's shielded cryptography is inferior. I just don't think the market's valuation on Monero is accurate.
Furthermore, Monero, has been around for more than a decade, has no conventional founding corporation controlling the network, and implements privacy as a protocol requirement rather than a feature.
Despite this, it sits at a market cap of $10B, while ZEC is at $24B as of right now. I meannnnnn somethings off, especially since privacy is clearly the meta rn, and you would think the og would collect most of the flows.
Another argument is that if it were the end of the world, and I wanted my millions of dollars to be privately accessible to me, I would rather buy illegal bazookas using Monero than Zcash. It just feels more private, I won't elaborate.
The chart is also just a magnet for 1k, so I feel like it's free rn, even if ZEC is the outperformer longterm.
so ya, that's my bull case for $XMR , and I'll be heavily looking into other privacy coins as well.
the bank account "agents gone rogue" that people are freaking out about is sooo blown out of proportion.
banks are just alarmed that agents PROMPTED BY USERS are transferring their money from x bank to one that gives better yields. or people are reporting fraud for charges that THEY prompted their agents indirectly.
this doesn't seem to have anything to do with safety, once again, just human error.
this is very bullish insurance companies though.
i will do everything in my power to get an absurd amount of wealth so that i can build in the name of God with no restrictions
and to revel in His grace, raising my children in such an environment where they feel it in their bones as well.
so @papertrade_xyz is basically perps casino version.
farming $Paper is going to be very fun. i'd say the main bottleneck is OI stalling and how fast the LP will reach $2M.
also, if OI ideally has around $5M of fresh headroom per side, does that not effectively cap how much can get through at once, which is not that large...? but then, if notional value is weighed when processing orders, the largest orders will be placed first, will this not clog OI?
people are saying lower leverage to preserve capital / get a better cost per $Paper is the ideal strategy, but this assumes the majority of people won't be jamming in size at high leverage during the flat emission zone, so emission value could get bad pretty fast. also, with lower leverage you get lower notional value, so maybe you are not prioritized.
i am excited nontheless
Today I call upon the blockchain industry to calmly begin planning for "bunker mode". My personal recommendation is to set in motion a controlled mass migration of assets to fresh addresses, i.e. addresses whose pubkeys remain hidden behind a hash.
Holders, starting with large and sophisticated ones, should consider moving the bulk of their funds to addresses that have never signed a transaction. And when they do sign one, they should also move remaining funds to a new address (possibly generated from the same seed phrase).
Don't rush. While I believe there is cause for action a rushed migration would do more harm than good. Don't panic either. Moving assets to protected addresses is a simple, preventative step which does not require new cryptography or new wallets.
IMO it is now reasonable to brace for the possibility that ECDSA breaks before qday, in the worst case in months not years. By "break" I mean fast private key recovery (e.g. in one week) on available hardware (e.g. a large GPU cluster).
Recent days have been humbling for human mathematical intuition. Long-held, unquestioned hypotheses have fallen. This includes the n log(n) bound for integer multiplication and the 3SUM conjecture. In hindsight, May's unexpected disproof of the Erdลs unit distance conjecture was our warning shot.
Yesterday's OpenAI drop made it clear that mathematical superintelligence is upon us. They say there are weeks where decades happen. We are about to live through weeks where centuries of mathematical progress happen. Could our magic 64-byte ECDSA signatures be too good to be true? Was it just security through obscurity all this time?
Elliptic curves feel especially vulnerable to superintelligence. Curves carry rich structure, with room for fancy tricks like Schoof, Frobenius, pairings. (By contrast, hashes are designed to minimise algebraic structure.)
Separately, as Ewin Tang can attest, an efficient quantum algorithm sometimes foreshadows an efficient classical one. We should be open to the possibility of a classical counterpart to Shor that breaks elliptic curves and RSA at once.
Also noteworthy is the striking under-representation of cryptographic breakthroughs among the 722 mathematical results OpenAI published. I've witnessed first-hand the US government censoring academic quantum cryptanalysis results. Backroom interventionism is my base case.
I urge large, sophisticated actors to lead by example. Project11's "risq list" (bitcoin-risq-list.projecteleven[.]com) is a great tracker of exposed BTC pubkeys. Binance, Bitbank, Robinhood, Bitfinex, and Tether have an opportunity to harden their cold storage. Next month I'll address institutions in London in a live Q&A (forum.ethereuminstitutional[.]org/london-2026).
Again, please do not rush. Wallets holding under 50 BTC enjoy partial cover from "Satoshi's shield", i.e. his 20K exposed addresses that hold 50 BTC each. Load-bearing signers like oracles and L2 security councils should consider rotating ECDSA pubkeys with every signed message and/or multi-signing with a hash-based schemes like SPHINCS.
Exiting bunker mode safely will require post-AI cryptography. My inclination is to go all-in on hash-based cryptography and avoid structured mathematical assumptions entirely, whether from curves, lattices, or isogenies. A single battle-tested hash (e.g. from the SHA or BLAKE families) yields plausible post-AI security.
The Ethereum roadmap on strawmap[.]org fully embraces hash-based cryptography with end-to-end formal verification as a response to the quantum threat. Those timelines must now be revisited and accelerated in light of mathematical superintelligence. I'll be pushing for maximum defensive acceleration.
@paperstrategy_@eth_elian if the goal is paper there really is no point in hedging. by the time you close a profitable position to switch it, the flat emission window will be over.