evangrossman

Boston-based entrepreneur, focused on healthcare technology.
Dabbler in national and local politics.

[evangrossman @evangrossman]

Early results in GA, VA, and NC confirm Silver polling avgs in those states — ie. we likely won’t know the winner tonight. Things could change when some big counties come in, but the initial results are confirming the expected results...

[evangrossman @evangrossman]

For a great on-the-ground report on the caliber of the Harris Philly GOTV operation, read:
https://t.co/F98kWrBl2O
Also, initially concern was Harris '24 philly margin would be <'20Bid b/c Latino males but then Garbagegate

[Matthew Coker 🇺🇸🇺🇦🇮🇱 @CokerMD]

🧵It’s Election Day, and I wanted to share my observances in Philadelphia as a “retired” GOP operative now working in public affairs. First, I want to talk about what I’ve seen in my own neighborhood.

[evangrossman @evangrossman]

PA: Good news for Harris – Philadelphia turnout will exceed 900K

Philly: Biden’20 81% of 740k votes | statewide ‘20 TO was 6.1m; '24 est 6.9 mil statewide TOmeaning Harris would need >850k TO in Philly at similar margins to Biden

[evangrossman @evangrossman]

As of 6:30p, there are >650k in person votes. On Sunday there were 180k mail ballots received and 60k outstanding let’s assume 200k total mail)

That would suggest Philly Turnout of >900k As long as statewide is <7mil, hard to see Harris losing

[evangrossman @evangrossman]

@AdvanceGuyNotes What's being missed in all this is the number of people that saw Trump in the truck and thought he was doubling down on the Puerto Rican island 'joke', because they never heard Joe Biden's remarks.

[evangrossman @evangrossman]

@Garrett_Archer @maricopacounty Any context for how that compares to '20?

[evangrossman @evangrossman]

Final - Election Night Viewing Guide Links now updated, a numbers will change but the links will always point to latest version. https://t.co/1lKyVxR8tC

[evangrossman @evangrossman]

Rays of sunshine -- Optimism as we enter the fnial few dayshttps://open.substack.com/pub/evangrossman/p/rays-of-sunshine?r=ec16w&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true

[evangrossman @evangrossman]

Early voting analysis https://t.co/JMyPfEZ6jj

[evangrossman @evangrossman]

Dramatic decline in Trump low $ donations this cycle.... https://t.co/JZxxMwUdN1

[evangrossman @evangrossman]

My 2024 Election Night viewing guide is now available on Substack: https://t.co/UA1P32q4T2

[evangrossman @evangrossman]

@TurfSimba Wow, I hadn’t seen that…

[evangrossman @evangrossman]

@GrammarTable When I’m feeling erudite, I like to riff [off of] @grammartable tweets by including the original prompt as something to build [off of]

[evangrossman @evangrossman]

Yet another cognitive bias...

[Ethan Mollick @emollick]

When the Louisiana State University football team loses in an upset, it causes judges in Louisiana to add 1,296 days of punishment to juvenile defendants (& 136 extra days of jail time!) as the judges are grumpy. Judges with degrees from LSU are harshest. https://t.co/PxocqZM4OM

[evangrossman @evangrossman]

Why did George Santos win NY-03? As @M_CCarpenter says, "the stars may lie but the numbers never do." And, as Cook Political's chief wonk @Redistrict notes, the Dems did an exceptionally poor job at turnout...

[Dave Wasserman @Redistrict]

How bad was Democratic turnout in New York last November?

- In 2020, George Santos (R) captured 161,931 votes in #NY03 and lost by 12.5 pts.
- In 2022, George Santos (R) captured 145,824 votes in #NY03 and won by 7.5 pts.

My latest for @CookPolitical: https://t.co/fXQlblR935

[evangrossman @evangrossman]

Mario Cuomo famously noted, "politicians campaign in poetry, but they govern in prose." Kevin McCarthy & the gang of 20 freedom caucus members opposing him missed the memo and think governing requires ad libbed, freestyle that wouldn't even pass a chatGPT adverse selector...

[evangrossman @evangrossman]

@ZachPolett As does AP, finally

[evangrossman @evangrossman]

GAsen 10:15 update
Model shows Warnock, but closer to 50.5%

Based on 3.2m votes on SecState file (out of FCast 3.5m votes cast), model takes actuals where avail. by vote type (Adv, Abs, eDay) and used forecasts for counties and/or vote types with no data. #GApol

[evangrossman @evangrossman]

@ZachPolett I do not, I just re-ran the model with only 300k votes left and Warnock is up by 40k with limited oppty for Walker to catch up

[evangrossman @evangrossman]

Forsyth early vote was 33% for Warnock in Nov and 37% now... Cobb 65% now vs. 61% Nov (of EV) ignore the networks trying to keep watchers all night long, Warnock will win this... #GApol #GASenateRunoff

[evangrossman @evangrossman]

@ZachPolett Just tweeted the #s. In 64 counties with >90% of all votes counted, Warnock got 34.8% of eDay votes today vs. 32.2% in Nov (Nov #s are out of all 3 candidates)

[evangrossman @evangrossman]

@ZachPolett I'll post a few after my final EV analysis in 10min