Poète dubitatif

Entre grognard métaphysique et impulsif qui se maîtrise. Accessoirement #redteam, par esprit de contradiction.

[Poète dubitatif @evil_SDOC]

Le soleil matraque la côte. Pas un brin d’air ne balaie le détroit. L’humidité est si pesante qu’on se liquéfie sur place. Au loin, la mer se confond avec les montagnes pelées d’en face. Cet endroit est d’une beauté irréelle.

[Harry Boone @Harry_Boone]

Comment dit on pop corn en madarin ?

[Gandalv @Microinteracti1]

The United States has just nuked its own arms export business. Not with a missile. With a phone call.

Pete Hegseth rang Estonia’s defense minister and told him the HIMARS and Javelin deliveries are on hold.

Indefinitely. Months, not weeks. No timeline. No alternative. Just: sorry, we’re busy bombing Iran.

And that’s it. Twenty years of patient alliance-building, vaporized in a Monday morning call.

Here’s what European defense planners now know for certain: American weapons come with an asterisk. The asterisk reads “subject to cancellation whenever Washington decides its own adventure takes priority.”

You can sign the contracts. You can train your soldiers. You can build your entire defensive posture around US systems. And then one day, the ammo stops. No warning. No plan B.

Estonia is already shopping elsewhere. So is everyone else, with the kind of focus that only comes from genuine betrayal.

The Americans think this is a pause. Europe knows it’s a divorce.

[Chris Brunet @chrisbrunet]

the day the war began Niall celebrated by singing "America, fuck yeah" and declared "One thing I can confidently promise about the war: it will not last long"

now he admits with zero self-reflection or apology: "it will take longer than agreed upon or than the markets believe"

[John M. Donnelly @johnmdonnelly]

Approximate estimates of percentages of U.S. munitions expended in Iran war, per @CNN :
50% THAAD interceptors
50% Patriot interceptors
45% Precision Strike Missiles
30% Tomahawk missiles
20% Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missiles
20% Standard Missiles (SM-3 and SM-6)

[Jim Sciutto @jimsciutto]

Question: Does Iran still buy the president's threats?

@citrinowicz: “Unfortunately, no…it doesn't matter what the president will say or the vice president or secretary of war will say. It has zero influence on the Iranian calculus. From the Iranians’ standpoint, they have the upper hand. And if the U.S. wants to escalate, it will escalate. And if they want to reach an agreement, they have to accept the ten points that they sent them through the Pakistanis…The US is trying now to negotiate with the same regime we tried to topple, and now it's very hard to reach an agreement.”

[Scott Robertson @sarobertson_]

CARNEY: "There are some who say there's no need for a comprehensive plan. They believe we should wait it out in the hope that the United States will return to normal. That the good old days will come back. But hope isn't a plan and nostalgia is not a strategy."

[Paroles de Combattants de la Libération @paroles_la]

17 avril 1945. Il va mourir. Parti de France à 18 ans, il a combattu avec les SAS de la Bretagne à la Hollande où il vient d'être capturé. La salve du peloton d'exécution...Il s'effondre, mais n'est que blessé. Le coup de grâce...Son portefeuille arrête la balle! Lucien Neuwirth.

[Rep. Jack Kimble @RepJackKimble]

This is the biggest military victory since we stopped the Vietnamese from invading the United States back in the 1970s!! Thank you, President Trump.

[Stew Peters @realstewpeters]

TRUMP: “A year ago our country was an embarrassment. All over the world, they laughed at us.”

Trump was the president a year ago…

[Lazzyyyyyy @em_Lazzy]

The BBC just released a documentary on Israeli snipers shooting children in the head.
168 cases. 95 shot in the head or chest. Over two-thirds under age 12.
This has been happening since October 2023.
It is now April 2026.

[Poète dubitatif @evil_SDOC]

The Dork Knight.

There you go, fixed your handle for you.

[The Dank Knight 🦇 @capeandcowell]

Europe bout to find out what life without 12 weeks of vacation is like

[Gerard Baker @gerardtbaker]

Yes. I wonder why on earth they decided the US was no longer a reliable partner to work with. Real mystery that.

[Bruno Maçães @MacaesBruno]

US now saying Ceuta and Melilla not part of Spain. Not sure this is a veiled or unveiled threat against Spain’s territorial integrity but at least Spanish government knows where the threat will come from and it’s not Iran

[Harry Boone @Harry_Boone]

Je note qu'on a toujours pas vu Donald au chevet des pilotes americains du F-15 abattu en Iran..ni aucunes images de la resco par le CENTCOM.
En 95 les américains diffusaient des images de Scott o Grady le jour de sa recup'.

[Tuomas Malinen @mtmalinen]

The destroyed Iranian airforce has risen from the grave to escort Pakistani officials with an F-4 Phantom and MiG-29s.

It's a miracle!

[Danny (Dennis) Citrinowicz ,داني سيترينوفيتش @citrinowicz]

My friend, don't underestimate my contribution to the security of Israel and the United States in the campaign against Iran.

Unlike you, I have also practicality operated in the field (even as a major belive it or not) and I am familiar with the limits of power when dealing with Tehran.

As I wrote, I understand the frustration well and I’m certainly not angry. One does not judge a person in their moment of distress.I understand the shock that comes with realizing the gap between what is written in a theoretical or your imagined world and what actually happens in reality. It has happened even to those far more experienced than you.

That said, to my colleagues who are analysts of the Iranian arena that knows Iran, I say this: this is how total meltdown looks like.

Those whose entire professional life focus has been the campaign against Iran, and who are now realizing how flawed their strategy was, are looking scapegoat to blame.

If I were in their position, I would be concerned about what comes next, and what they will do the day after, when it becomes clear that their entire professional lives were built on illusions. It’s not an easy, I am sure of that.

I wish them all the best, and I would suggest they leave the Iranian analysis arena to true experts before continuing to offer misguided advice.

Stay safe Richard. You have my deepest sympathy.

[Michelle @D162Michele]

America's Strait of Hormuz blockade right now....

[Christopher David @Tazerface16]

CENTCOM claims there have been no breaches of the naval blockade in the last 24 hours, but we can clearly see ships going through the gaps.

It's dumb to destroy your credibility with easily proveable lies.

So fucking stupid.

[Mariska den Eelden 🇪🇺🇳🇱 @eeldenden]

Von der Leyen announced the EU will move to qualified majority voting. The end of the vetocracy; a step toward a more federal Europe

[Poète dubitatif @evil_SDOC]

Scénario optimiste: « on bloque les exportations de brut iranien pendant 20 jours ».

La gueule de l’économie mondiale dans 20 jours !!! Parce qu’en même temps, les Iraniens bloquent tout le reste du transit maritime aussi.

Attention à ne pas raconter n’importe quoi !

[Romain Mielcarek @romainmielcarek]

Blocus d'Ormuz.

Scénario optimiste : la production iranienne chute. Dans les vingt jours, ils tombent à court de cash. L'économie s'effondre. Le régime est forcé de négocier.

Scénario pessimiste : faute de pouvoir exporter son pétrole, l'Iran n'a aucune raison de laisser le détroit ouvert. Téhéran frappe tous les navires qui passent. Cela impacte les marchés de l'énergie, partout, y compris aux Etats-Unis.

L'autre question étant : les Etats-Unis vont-ils bloquer les navires de tous les pays ?

"Si M. Trump parvient à priver l’Iran de devises fortes et à provoquer une crise économique, tout en limitant l’impact sur les prix du pétrole et les flux de matières premières, en restreignant l’escalade militaire qui s’ensuivrait et en gérant la diplomatie délicate d’un blocus contre le transport maritime international, il pourrait revenir à la table des négociations dans de meilleures conditions.

Mais le régime iranien estime avoir remporté la première épreuve de force avec les États-Unis, puisqu’il a survécu à la guerre, conservé ses matières nucléaires et maintenu une emprise ferme sur Ormuz. Il a des raisons de croire qu’il peut à nouveau survivre à M. Trump. « C’est le long terme ou rien », déclare Kevin Rowlands, qui a dirigé le groupe de réflexion de la Royal Navy jusqu’à l’année dernière et qui édite désormais le RUSI Journal, une publication militaire. « On ne met pas en place un blocus pour une semaine. »"

Source: The Economist
https://t.co/JrittzWpAE