evthinedge

Former Morgan Stanley Investment Banker • +EV Sports Bettor • NYC

[evthinedge @evthinedge]

WASHINGTON vs. TEXAS

🎯 TOTALS MARKET
📉 UNDER 7.5 RUNS
💵 PRICE: -102

📌 POSITION: UNDER 7.5

#MLB #SportsBetting

[evthinedge @evthinedge]

@ACric10010 @FiddlesPicks If you’re right enough, the market eventually tells you. You either beat the vig on the way in, or your model keeps getting validated by the market and you collect CLV. That’s the whole game.

[evthinedge @evthinedge]

@robpizzola @JoeyKnish22 Yeah, I think that’s the right way to look at it. One bad week doesn’t change the underlying edge. If anything, it’s a good reminder to stay patient and keep doing what’s worked.

[evthinedge @evthinedge]

@JoeyKnish22 Easy money attracts smart money until it isn’t easy anymore. The guys who keep winning will be the ones who keep finding something the market hasn’t fully priced in.

[evthinedge @evthinedge]

@KirkEvans0 Yeah, pretty much. You can’t outthink 12 months of variance. Stay in the game, keep improving, and let the sample size do its thing.

[evthinedge @evthinedge]

@FezzikSports Yeah, this is the part people overlook. A 1¢ edge sounds great on paper, but if it’s that thin, you need a ton of volume and bankroll for it to matter.

Finding the edge is one thing. Being able to actually monetize it is another.

[evthinedge @evthinedge]

@ACric10010 @FiddlesPicks If you’re consistently getting 1–3% CLV, the question is whether that edge is real and repeatable. The vig isn’t some extra hurdle after that. If you’re getting +EV numbers, you’re getting +EV numbers.

[evthinedge @evthinedge]

@DoctorRazzWSOP @FiddlesPicks If you actually have a real edge after vig, you should make money over enough bets. Getting rich is a different story though. You still have variance, bankroll limits, and the risk that your “edge” isn’t actually an edge.

[evthinedge @evthinedge]

@AdamSchefter Mexico City makes a lot of sense. 🇲🇽🏈 The passion for football is already there, and the market is huge. I could definitely see the NFL making Mexico City its first permanent international home.

[evthinedge @evthinedge]

🏈🇮🇪 TCU vs. North Carolina 🇮🇪🏈

Who will COVER in the Aer Lingus College Football Classic? 👀

🐸 TCU
🐏 UNC

📊 VOTE BELOW! 👇

#TCU #UNC #CollegeFootball #CFB

[evthinedge @evthinedge]

@FiddlesPicks CLV is the long term edge. Results won’t always go your way, but the process speaks for itself. Michael knows what he’s doing keep trusting the work and let it play out.

[evthinedge @evthinedge]

@FIVESTARINVEGAS What sport are we talking?

[evthinedge @evthinedge]

🐯 LSU Under 8.5 Wins 📉

Tough schedule + major roster changes + a new era in Baton Rouge = too many questions for me. I see LSU finishing 8-4.

🎯 Play: UNDER 8.5 Wins

#LSU #CFB #Betting

[evthinedge @evthinedge]

NFL Preseason Thursday recap: Favorites went 1-5 ATS. Underdogs went 5-1 ATS. Totals: 6 Unders, 0 Overs.

#NFL #NFLPreseason #NFLBetting #SportsBetting

[evthinedge @evthinedge]

@PlusEV The problem with sports betting is that a lot of “opportunities” are really just opportunities to lose money with confidence.

Investing young > betting young.

Time is your edge. Don’t waste it trying to outsmart the bookmaker.

[evthinedge @evthinedge]

@theblockspot Montreal

[evthinedge @evthinedge]

@TheRealMrACL The interesting part is how much of this is already in the number. Starter announcements create the initial move, then the question becomes whether the price has overcorrected. Preseason edges are usually more about snap expectations vs. the closing number than the headline itsel

[evthinedge @evthinedge]

The NFL futures the public is hammering right now:

🏈 Rams
🏈 Seahawks
🏈 Bills
🏈 Chiefs
🏈 Eagles

Just worth knowing where the public is putting their money. @CircaSports

[evthinedge @evthinedge]

@sharpedgelv In sports betting, a loss should tell you where your edge was wrong: price, matchup, injury, variance, or assumptions. Find the error, update, and don't pay for the same lesson twice.