Ext. β

Managing a high risk fund. Follow at your own risk. No financial advice. Mostly commentary on semiconductors/macro

[Ext. β @extreme_beta]

Macro seeming very heavy even with several good catalysts (e.g. blowout $MU ER). This is important to pay attention to for ST trades. Markets feel very toppy. I’m staying out.

[Ext. β @extreme_beta]

@JUST_KAWS It was already priced in

[Ext. β @extreme_beta]

This is key IMO, very good sign initially

[Kalshi Finance @Kalshi_Finance]

JUST IN: Micron $MU guides Q1 FY27 revenue to $61.5B, up another 13%

[Ext. β @extreme_beta]

All eyes on $MU ER today, it will say a lot. Things I’m looking for: signs of expanding future demand via their guidance (signaling continuation of the AI trade) vs not. S/T fund all in cash for now.

[Ext. β @extreme_beta]

Fundamentals perhaps leave much to be desired, but looking at technicals and the momentum building in $BTC & $ETH, wouldn’t be surprised to see a rally to 120-130K & 5K+ respectively the next few weeks-months. Have a position.

[Ext. β @extreme_beta]

back to the regular program until Monday market open

[Bull Theory @BullTheoryio]

BREAKING: 🇺🇸🇮🇷 Trump rejects Iran's ceasefire proposal and expects US strikes to resume after the midterms, per WSJ.

[Ext. β @extreme_beta]

With the odds of more fed hikes rising, on the lookout for longer term downturns. won’t be so eager to jump back in.

[Ext. β @extreme_beta]

Closed this position for ~43% gain. Market running a bit too hot too fast. Could continue higher though

[Ext. β @extreme_beta]

Buying dips in AI hardware this week as we head into the elections. expecting a good rally. time frame is weeks to months.

[Ext. β @extreme_beta]

Position up 32%, still holding. Started seeing the flow of good news already from the trump admin.

[Ext. β @extreme_beta]

@realMeetKevin Bubble keeps bubbling

[Ext. β @extreme_beta]

Today's CPI release was more of a risk removal. Markets already moving on to pricing in "the next" thing.

[Ext. β @extreme_beta]

following congressional trades - trailing 45D they seem to have gone further into tech/AI (bullish sign for tech/semis)

[Ext. β @extreme_beta]

@BullTheoryio is it really "insane volatility"? come on guys.

[Ext. β @extreme_beta]

interesting. now >50% chance of raise in September.

[Ext. β @extreme_beta]

JH hawkish speech, imo don't think they'll raise in Sep/Oct (before elections), but very likely in Dec

[Ext. β @extreme_beta]

We're expecting more cap-ex in tech/AI in the short term but markets feeling heavy. Not sensing the euphoria.

[Ext. β @extreme_beta]

@Kalshi_Finance was it "ABSOLUTELY INSANE" though? Reduce the noise please.

[Ext. β @extreme_beta]

you know what to do.

[Kalshi Finance @Kalshi_Finance]

JUST IN: Jim Cramer says investors should "sell semis"