Thierry Laduguie

The farther backward you can look, the farther forward you can see

[MBAeconomics @MBAeconomics1]

10 year Treasury 4.7%+
20 year Treasury 5.2%+
30 year Treasury nearly 5.2%

The Japanese Yen is nearly 164.

The world is selling off American debt. Noone wants it. Trillions worth of debt has to be rolled over as well, and current yields are not attracting buyers.

The USA is on the verge of a debt doom loop, where higher rates cause money printing and yield curve control, which causes inflation and real rates to remain negative even while rates rise.

This is stagflation, and the most powerful assets to own are #gold and #silver.

[Thierry Laduguie @eyield]

If the fear of higher interest rates has hit gold the S&P 500 does not seem to be affected. Yet higher interest rates are bearish for tech stocks, this divergence between gold and the S&P 500 will end. The key is that investors don’t believe interest rates will be considerably higher in the future, they could go up by 25bps or 50bps but upside is limited due to the enormous amount of debt to be serviced. At some point in the future gold and stocks will rally #gold #XUAUSD $SPX

[Thierry Laduguie @eyield]

Investors are shifting focus from pure artificial intelligence (AI) hype to actual, near-term earnings. High-profile moments—such as Apple raising hardware prices due to surging memory chip costs and reports of Nvidia's GPU spot prices cooling off—have triggered profit-taking. Wall Street is nervously watching for signs of inflation stickiness. A strong jobs report could prompt a more hawkish Federal Reserve, with some analysts pricing in an interest rate hike as early as September

[Thierry Laduguie @eyield]

That’s the reason why I believe the next leg down will be short lived, it is not a bear market but a correction in a bull market. Companies will become profitable due to AI, earnings will grow, demand for commodities will grow, this is positive for the FTSE 100 and S&P 500 #FTSE $FTSE $SPX #NASDAQ

[Thierry Laduguie @eyield]

Markets rallied strongly yesterday driven by a massive surge in tech stocks. The market had been suffering from AI fatigue and valuation anxiety, with investors worried that tech companies were spending billions on artificial intelligence without seeing a return on investment

[Thierry Laduguie @eyield]

However, blockbuster earnings and guidance from heavyweights Micron Technology and Qualcomm completely flipped the script. Micron blew past expectations with stunning quarterly revenue (surging to over $41 billion), proving that hardware and memory chip demand remains incredibly high. Qualcomm followed suit by drastically raising its long-term data center and non-handset revenue forecasts. This reassured investors that the recent tech sell-off was just a temporary valuation reset, not a permanent structural peak

[Thierry Laduguie @eyield]

@TFMetals I agree. More importantly the correlation between gold and the FTSE 100, they tend to move together. the FTSE 100 is near a bottom

[Thierry Laduguie @eyield]

Gold is probably at the bottom #gold #XAUUSD

[Thierry Laduguie @eyield]

Adding pressure to equities is a hawkish shift from the Federal Reserve. Last week, the Fed (under new chair Kevin Warsh) signalled potential interest rate hikes later this year to counter inflation risks stemming from recent Middle East conflicts. Bond yields remain elevated, with the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield sitting around 4.5%. This fear of higher interest rates was supported by better than expected US manufacturing and services PMIs, the economy will become stronger and this will be positive for the stock market. But in the short term the fear of higher interest rates will persist so the direction of the stock market is down in the short term, up in the long term $SPX #NASDAQ

[Thierry Laduguie @eyield]

Wall Street suffered a steep drop yesterday, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite tumbling 2.21% and the S&P 500 falling 1.44%. Investor anxiety is spiking over high valuations and the staggering capital expenditure big tech companies are pouring into AI infrastructure. Major hardware and memory makers like Micron (down 13.2%) and Qualcomm (down 8%) took massive hits, while Nvidia dropped 4.1%, slipping back below the $5 trillion market value threshold. Investors are highly focused on Micron’s earnings report, which drops later today after the close and will likely serve as a major health check for AI hardware demand

[Thierry Laduguie @eyield]

There is regular activity of US B1 and B52 bombers in the sky in the UK, I am not sure why, the war with Iran is over so why are they flying?

[Thierry Laduguie @eyield]

That is why gold is going down, interest rates are going up but stock investors are not paying attention. Gold is approaching a bottom below its 200-day moving average. As inflation becomes stronger gold will rally because real rates will fall #gold #XAUUSD

[Thierry Laduguie @eyield]

Markets rallied after president Trump announced the cancellation of planned military strikes against Iran, stating that discussions have reached the highest levels of leadership and a deal is close to being signed. Markets are difficult to trade when Trump intervenes, he can change the direction of the market depending on what he says

[Thierry Laduguie @eyield]

However the news is in line with the wave count, I expected a bounce. Despite the bullish geopolitical news, macroeconomic hurdles remain underneath the surface. Thursday's Producer Price Index (PPI) data actually came in hotter than economists expected (headline PPI climbed 1.1% in May), meaning wholesale inflation is still running hot

[Thierry Laduguie @eyield]

Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report was strong, fading hopes for near-term Federal Reserve rate cuts. Nonfarm Payrolls report came in at 172,000 jobs (well above the 80,000 expected), pushing the 10-year Treasury yield up to 4.54% on fears that the Fed will keep interest rates higher for longer to tame economic growth. This comes at a time when oil is rallying near $100. A strong economy is associated with high oil prices, plus we have the AI infrastructure build out and the Middle East conflict, all bullish for oil and inflation. Expect bond yields to continue to rally and stocks to correct. In this environment interest rates are likely to go up, that’s why stocks are declining. But this is not a bear market, the correction will be short lived $FTSE #FTSE $SPX #NASDAQ

[Thierry Laduguie @eyield]

The BTI, a sentiment indicator, turned bearish three days after the S&P 500 made a new all-time high. Global markets are reacting heavily to a massive tech-led selloff from Friday and escalating geopolitical tensions over the weekend. Friday saw a severe correction in semiconductor and tech shares, leading to a 4% plunge in the Nasdaq Composite—its worst single session in over a year. Heavyweights like Broadcom, Micron, and Marvell Technology suffered double-digit losses as investors took profits from the extended AI rally

[Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm]

Just heard during a financial television interview on equity investing: “ANY pullback is an opportunity to buy.”
This echoes quite a broad market belief -- conditioned by years of policy puts and outcomes-- that has increasingly ensured market corrections are remarkably limited in both magnitude and duration.
Yet the deeper this belief is embedded in the system, the greater the risk of unsettling volatility in the event of a serious challenge, whether from fundamentals, technicals, valuations, or all three.
#markets #investing #investors

[Thierry Laduguie @eyield]

@brain_stimulus It’s fake, created by AI

[Thierry Laduguie @eyield]

@DefiWimar He will sign a peace memorandum because the US cant defeat Iran, Iran is not Venezuela

[Thierry Laduguie @eyield]

@FoxNews These are probably flying devices used to spy on the US and the government thinks they are UFOs 😂😂