Volatility is the toll we pay to invest.
Accept it.
The market corrects:
•3%, 7x times a year
•5%, 3 times a year
•10%, once a year
•15%, every 2 years
•20%, every 3.5 years
S&P 500 intra-year declines vs. calendar year returns
US 10-year Treasuries are offering about the greatest amount of yield versus the S&P 500's earnings yield going back to 2003. Either earnings have to keep outperforming, or bonds will start looking like an increasingly attractive alternative.
S&P 500 earnings are now expected to increase by 25% this year. We've never seen earnings growth this high outside of post-recessionary rebounds. An unprecedented boom fueled by massive EPS gains in big tech.
Video: https://t.co/HdoFAnN6sC
S&P 500 earnings are now expected to increase by 23% this year. We've never seen earnings growth this high outside of post-recessionary rebounds. An unprecedented boom fueled by massive EPS gains in big tech.
Video: https://t.co/MlNh6tnw11
Japanese 10-year yields hit a new post-1997 high of 2.52%. Longer-term yields are rising globally in tandem with surging oil prices, especially as companies and governments demonstrate a will to keep spending.
Morgan Stanley on why there is "growing evidence" the S&P 500 correction is getting closer to its ending
stages:
☑️"The S&P’s forward P/E ratio has now compressed by 17% which is in the range of prior growth scare outcomes in the absence of a recession or the Fed hiking."
☑️"The regression between earnings growth and crude when the two are negatively correlated implies that the market is priced for the move in oil prices thus far."
☑️"Equal weighted defensive sectors including Staples have actually underperformed the broader market since the conflict began."
You think the S&P 500 Index is too concentrated? Try going to another country for a while. The US is one of the *least* concentrated markets. Here's countries ranked by the % of market made up by top 10 biggest stocks, via @psarofagis in a banger note out today that is part of our ongoing 'Stop Overthinking Everything Because the Market Loves Punishing Midwits' theme..
Since 2015, investors have been warned nonstop about a “tech bubble” that has never seemed to pop – meanwhile, the NASDAQ-100 is up 550%.
Today, the same warnings are being applied to AI.
Below, I examine periods when normal market resets were mischaracterized as a bubble, why today’s AI cycle does not share those characteristics before concluding with the technical signals we are monitoring to confirm that AI remains in a sustained uptrend. ⬇️
https://t.co/bUdrg6mCdn
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