upvbasic

wgmi

[upvbasic @fallernen]

Today's trade
1. loss, got sweeped out bcs of prior high
2. missed entry
3. close partial on the mean, but the rest roundtripped bcs away of screen

[upvbasic @fallernen]

@swingsonly 😭😭

[upvbasic @fallernen]

@derivativemonky @koolkrypto223 @tradeparadigm do u now trade options more?

[Aporia @0xaporia]

I think most people approach trading backwards. They assume profitability *requires* some secret strategy (an edge nobody else has discovered yet). So they spend their time hunting for that hidden key and fail miserably. No wonder, though, because this is quant-fund, PhD, millions-in-research hard.

For the average trader, this is a misguided premise. The information that would actually make you profitable is already out there, freely available. You could probably head to Google, type "trend following strategy" or some other keyword, and find something that works today.

So, the real constraint is not access, but rather one of two things:

• You don't like the risk
Running it means sitting through drawdowns, stomaching volatility, etc. The profit is priced in discomfort and it genuinely sucks ass.

• Capturing it takes infrastructure you don't have
The idea is real, you'd happily take it, but the way it actually pays out demands things you can't put on the table. Data feeds, automation, capital, tooling, etc.

So once you strip away the fantasy of the secret strategy, what you're actually left with is quite simple. It always comes back to risk. Either getting comfortable holding risk you were previously unwilling to hold, or learning to take on the specific risk that actually compensates you for carrying it.

[Cred @CryptoCred]

As someone who loves trading technicals

I think learning about markets via technicals (like I did) is one of the worst ways to start

It’s a rigid framework where grown men argue with each other about the exact Japanese name for a specific candlestick or a box they’ve drawn on an arbitrary time frame

It doesn’t teach you the foundations - why markets move, different types of participants, microstructure, order types and their impact, perps vs spot, and all that stuff - market ‘plumbing’ as a category

One of the biggest issues with being hyperfocused on technicals is that they don’t teach you principles and market effects

Most technical setups can be decomposed into broad buckets which are well-established (trend, mean reversion, momentum, order flow / price impact, vol clustering etc.)

A lot of technical analysis is an often unknowing attempt to map those broad market effects into a recognisable pattern

But even a technical-first view is better served by understanding the underlying market effect first and then decomposing it, as opposed to focusing on the specific pattern without ever looking at what’s happening under the hood

“This type of triangle tends to go up” is a lot less useful than “this type of flow tends to resolve higher over N time frame”, even if you use the same triangle to identify it

Another example: if you’re drawing a support level and buying it, you’re assuming some version of buyers being more aggressive than sellers in that area over a given time frame and predicting a higher price as a result - but what does that mean?

Shorts closing / taking profit, allowing for mean reversion? Aggressive sellers being absorbed by passive buyers? Some price insensitive buyer predictably stepping in at a value area? Sellers getting margin called and forcibly trading at bad prices/causing a dislocation? Clustering of orders creating some sort of imbalance? And so on.

There’s definitely a risk of overthinking this stuff, and you can make money from charts alone

But if you haven’t thought about the underlying market effects and ‘plumbing’ for your setups you’ll likely be stuck in rigid pattern matching that doesn’t generalise and isn’t subject to deeper investigation and more nuanced application

Even if your main lens remains TA-focused, there is no harm in understanding the stuff you’re trading on a product level (eg perp contract specs, OI, funding, mark/last/index etc) and on a foundational level (why and how markets move)

Especially now that you can jam this stuff into an LLM and keep saying “dumb it down” until you get it, no excuse not to do your homework

This is something I really wish I did much earlier in my trading life, so hopefully it resonates with a fellow trader stuck in TA psychosis spending his mum’s credit card on a fourth Udemy candlestick course

Anyway GM

[upvbasic @fallernen]

@0iqredact yes my g, on the same process

[upvbasic @fallernen]

@re0h_198 will waiting either one decided

[upvbasic @fallernen]

@MoneyPrinter0x why 6/10?

[upvbasic @fallernen]

im deadd😭

[upvbasic @fallernen]

gg bull

[upvbasic @fallernen]

@0iqredact hahhah same, too afraid momentum shifting to the upside. every time see a weakness click on bid button

[upvbasic @fallernen]

yesterday scalps
its so hard for me because many things happen irl
ended with bad trade and day
the lesson is, be patient

[upvbasic @fallernen]

@tradethisway_ sbb, thankiess

[upvbasic @fallernen]

@SailorManCrypto @TraderMercury interested on 3 tap deviation, elaborate plss

[upvbasic @fallernen]

@tradethisway_ why nontime based better? kindly asking

[upvbasic @fallernen]

@satoshiheist what does he know

[upvbasic @fallernen]

@traderayer interesting

[upvbasic @fallernen]

@tofikyeah what's ur mainly trade? stock or crypto?

[upvbasic @fallernen]

@TheMensAdvocate would

[upvbasic @fallernen]

@TheMensAdvocate 😂