Ex-Nematologist. Ph.D. Financial Blogger est. 2001. Jack of No Trades. @CMTAssociation Affiliate. Freelancer. #Usability#UX#UI. #Sectorbreadth analysis.
As we head into 2026 we have a mixed bag of metrics to look at. Those that are bullish tend to be near term (for next year), those that are bearish will likely gain influence in the years ahead until they can be held back no longer. $SPX, $COMPQ, $DJIA, $IWM.
coin ($BTCUSD.X) lose 5%+ as Semiconductors ($SOX) gain 5%. Go figure. This divergence can't continue, but which side blinks first remains to be seen. The Russell 2000 ($IWM) offers the best risk:reward at current levels.
The Nasdaq ($COMPQ) reached its measured move target today, so could be an aggressive short - but don't hold on if it pushes through. Equal weight averages ($SPXEW, $QQEW) made their breakout moves, and could still have more in the tank, but
I wrote a website for 18 years for free
This is not theory, it is real-time track record
It's easy to say after the fact "I made it"
Not so easy to show up for 18 years
I actually do not trust people that just showed up one day, and told us they won
That doesn't help me - show me how you build, when you build
Hey Ho, the rally goes. New breakouts, this time in the Russell 2000 ($IWM), just keep feeding into demand. The Semiconductor Index ($OX) looks set to double in value in just a few months. Who can stop this advance?
Equal weighted averages ($SPXEW and $QQEW) are getting into the game now. Nasdaq breadth metrics suggest we may even be some 2 years away from a major top, but at what cost in the long term? AI has its uses, but it's far from the finished product and is not Production ready, but
I had a discussion yesterday with somebody about Father Ted and we ended up trying to choose, at first, our top 5 moments, which became 10, and then 20.
Anyway, here's what I believe was my #4, featuring Ted, Dougal and "Your man from One Foot in the Grave. The, I don't believe it, man".
Enjoy the sunshine 🌞
Markets post gains, with the equal-weighted Nasdaq 100 ($QQEW ) managing to deliver a breakout. The Russell 2000 ($IWM) rallied off support and Bitcoin ($BTCUSD.X) edged higher. x
@JesperDavidsen1 Tests of support give relatively low risk entry points irrespective of distance from 200-day MA. But indices trading below their 200-day give the long term buy signals.
Selling was the dominant action today, but many indices remain in well established bull trends ($COMPQ, $SPX), while others develop the makings of new trading ranges ($IWM, $BTCUSD.X). Those looking to play long can look to buy support of latter ranges,
@JesperDavidsen1 The issue with an index like the Semiconductor Index so far above its 200-day MA is that a sizable sell off (>25%) will still leave the index above its 200-day, and therefore a bull trend.