Jay

Creator of the Point Efficiency Model (PEM) 📊 | CFB Analytics, Power Ratings & Projections | Weekly PEM Rankings, Matchups & Results | 🥃 Whiskey Collector

[Jay @FansOfCFB]

What is PEM?

PEM, or Point Efficiency Model, is a schedule-adjusted measure of how effectively a college football team produces and prevents points, expressed on a point-based power-rating scale.

It is not simply an efficiency ranking, a box-score model, or a résumé ranking. PEM evaluates offense and defense independently, then places that performance in the context of the competition a team has faced and the résumé it has built.

At its core, PEM is based on the idea that all production is not equal. Scoring production is evaluated alongside the efficiency with which it is created or prevented, rather than treating every point or possession the same.

A win does not automatically mean a team played well, and a loss does not automatically mean it played poorly. The underlying performance still matters.

Because PEM is expressed in points, the difference between two teams’ ratings serves as the baseline for a projected matchup margin before home-field advantage.

[Jay @FansOfCFB]

@humphrey5 It is not. Definitely changes things.

[Jay @FansOfCFB]

Iowa is a 3-point underdog in Seattle. PEM has Iowa winning by 11.1.

Friday's biggest EDGE: 14.1.

The matchup that stands out is Iowa's No. 9 PEM defense against Washington's No. 90 offense. Iowa +3 is the PEM ATS pick.

[Jay @FansOfCFB]

Wyoming's offense is No. 134 in PEM. San Jose State gets that matchup at home Friday.

The line is San Jose State -6. PEM projects a 13.9-point win, giving San Jose State 7.9 points of EDGE and the ATS pick.

8 PM CT.

[Jay @FansOfCFB]

Washington State–Utah State is one of the closest PEM/line comparisons this week.

Utah State -5.5 on the line, -4.9 in PEM. Washington State +5.5 is the ATS pick, with just 0.6 points of EDGE.

8 PM CT.

[Jay @FansOfCFB]

MAC title-game projection:

Toledo vs. Western Michigan
PEM: Toledo −4.0

The most frequent matchup across 10,000 season simulations.

[Jay @FansOfCFB]

MAC's projected race after Week 5.

Toledo leads with a 45.6% conference-title chance.

Every team's projected record and playoff chances below.

[Jay @FansOfCFB]

MAC offense and defense through Week 5.

PEM's top offense: Toledo
Top defense: Western Michigan

Every team ranked on both sides of the ball.

[Jay @FansOfCFB]

MAC PEM ratings through Week 5.

Toledo leads at 4.3. Every team ranked below.

[Jay @FansOfCFB]

USC at Penn State is almost dead even in PEM.

Penn State -1.5 on the line. PEM has USC by 0.4, making USC +1.5 the ATS pick.

USC's No. 11 PEM offense against Penn State's No. 11 defense is the matchup to watch Saturday.

[Jay @FansOfCFB]

Mountain West title-game projection:

New Mexico vs. North Dakota State
PEM: New Mexico −5.9

The most frequent matchup across 10,000 season simulations.

[Jay @FansOfCFB]

Mountain West's projected race after Week 5.

New Mexico leads with a 41.8% conference-title chance.

Every team's projected record and playoff chances below.

[Jay @FansOfCFB]

Mountain West offense and defense through Week 5.

PEM's top offense: New Mexico
Top defense: New Mexico

Every team ranked on both sides of the ball.

[Jay @FansOfCFB]

Mountain West PEM ratings through Week 5.

New Mexico leads at 8.5. Every team ranked below.

[Collin Wilson @Collin1]

South Alabama scored three touchdowns in 3 minutes 8 seconds of play

[Jay @FansOfCFB]

Through Week 5 — Wake Forest: 4-1, 9.8-2.2 expected by PEM.

The full schedule, completed results and current PEM spreads for the games ahead. Simulated CFP chance: 27.9%.

[Jay @FansOfCFB]

Through Week 5 — Northwestern: 3-1, 9.2-2.8 expected by PEM.

The full schedule, completed results and current PEM spreads for the games ahead. Simulated CFP chance: 29.4%.

[Jay @FansOfCFB]

We do not use games against FCS opponents as a piece of our data

[The Car @2019ShelbyGT350]

@FansOfCFB And those SEC offensive #'s are inflated by all the FCS teams they play.....You know the SEC plays more FCS teams then any other conference and has for years!!!

[Jay @FansOfCFB]

Sun Belt title-game projection:

James Madison vs. Louisiana
PEM: James Madison −8.4

The most frequent matchup across 10,000 season simulations.

[Jay @FansOfCFB]

Sun Belt's projected race after Week 5.

James Madison leads with a 36.9% conference-title chance.

Every team's projected record and playoff chances below.

[Jay @FansOfCFB]

Sun Belt offense and defense through Week 5.

PEM's top offense: James Madison
Top defense: Louisiana

Every team ranked on both sides of the ball.