@AlbertVarzari @KoreAstra @formlessforms @dissentingj@JustinWolfers I see that you like to resort to insults when confronted with facts...just like your fearful leader.
and the cowardly block was an excellent touch too 😂
Trying to say this in English: If today's jobs numbers caused you to dramatically shift your assessment of the economy, you're doing it wrong.
Markets are reacting to today's jobs report as if it were pretty good news, but it's far short of great news and that seems about right.
A data point on how (un)informative today's payrolls number was.
Stocks rose about 2-3% on the news.
That's the sort of response you would see if payrolls were half a million or maybe a million higher than expected. In reality, today's number was 10 million higher than forecast
Another attempt at perspective.
20 million people lost their jobs, causing unemployment to rise near Depression levels.
Today's data says 1-in-8 of those jobs returned.
But the real question is what'll happen to the rest? Even if half return we're replaying the Great Recession
What do today's numbers tell us about the recovery?
Very little, I'm afraid. We knew that a partial unwinding of the shutdown would lead to a partial reversal of job losses.
The important question remains how many jobs will resume, and how quickly. That remains unknown.
Or as I would say to my freshman econ students: Don't confuse levels and changes.
The changes are going to be dramatic and positive, but that's largely because the levels are even more dramatically negative.
Over the next few months, we all need to remember that these 3 things can all be true:
1. Covid pushed the economy into a massive hole
2. It's so deep that even just a partial recovery will yield historically unprecedented growth rates
3. The economy is still in a bad bad place
A totally serious proposition: Given the technical measurement problems that even the BLS acknowledges, journalists should refer to the unemployment rate for May as having been 16%. That's the reality of our times. (On a similar basis, unemployment was 19% last month.)
Important line in the BLS release:
If the workers who were recorded as employed but absent from work due to "other reasons" had been classified as unemployed on temporary layoff in May, the overall unemployment rate would have been about 3 percentage points higher than reported.
in fact, it mostly just includes dentists going back to work...and other hospital workers. there were no jobs created for all the working class ppl to replace what was lost...therefore no V shaped economic return
BREAKING: US unemployment rate fell to 13.3% in May, down from 14.7% in April
2.5 million jobs GAINED in May
20.5 million lost in April
701,000 in March
NOTE: This data doesn't include people who stopped looking for work or lost hours
do not, I repeat DO NOT, trust those "job numbers" tRump is touting. there's no way we added 2.5 million jobs in May and there's no way we're getting a V shaped rebound. keep in mind this is after the WH said it would not release economic data this summer.
@nytimes do your thing
who here remembers that fat rat running twice on the White House podium...add it up with synchronicity and that recent word of a covid infestation is looking like a whole new plague
Lots of people get their stimulus payment direct deposited through Tuesday night and then all of a sudden right after @IRSNews launches its Get My Payment tool on Wednesday, no one can get their payments anymore...coincidence?
#PaymentStatusNotAvailable