Francisco Montalvo

Always trying to be the funny guy. Not always succeeding, but always trying.

[Francisco Montalvo @fassiko78]

@liron @DavidSacks @naval @getcallin @friedberg untenable. Strategic nukes mean the end of the world. So, he can play the nuclear card but has to do it in a way that doesn’t drive a complete revolt at home and further alienation abroad. And I think the distinction between a NATO country and non-NATO country is minimal.

[Francisco Montalvo @fassiko78]

@liron @DavidSacks @naval @getcallin @friedberg military leaders. What I found missing from your otherwise insightful conversation is how a tactical nuke changes the tide of the war. Remember that President Putin wants particular swaths of land - not a great idea to nuke there. Nuke Kyiv and you make Chinese and Indian support

[Francisco Montalvo @fassiko78]

@nicholadrummond @naval Count on traditional Western myopia. Try again 2028-2030.

[Francisco Montalvo @fassiko78]

@nicholadrummond @naval Purge internal threats (hard/soft kills) to complicate overthrow, maybe feed a few problems to Ukraine (ICC?). Informally designate horrifying heir apparent. Pragmatic sanctions relaxation as winter approaches, and life-saving energy is in higher demand.

[Francisco Montalvo @fassiko78]

@nicholadrummond @naval Withdraw some RAF from Crimea, tempting UAF to enter/ethnically cleanse (very hard to resist). EU/NATO use membership to keep Ukraine in check; Russian influence remains. Give Ukrainian civilians a chance to start recriminations, harp on broader Russophobia.

[Francisco Montalvo @fassiko78]

@ukraine_world Russia just learned what most have known for a long time. There are three mothers you never mess with:
Mother Nature
Mothers-in-law
and mother****in’ Ukrainians.

[Lulie @reasonisfun]

Optimism is not the glass half-full. It’s the tap.

[Francisco Montalvo @fassiko78]

The CDC recommends dancing if you want to, you can leave your friends behind.

[Francisco Montalvo @fassiko78]

Bern rate