Value Investing c2026:
“$90? Wow, look how cheap this is! It’s only 9x cash flow. Yes, the growth is low, but it’s durable growth and it’s buying back stock hand over fist. #Compounder
“Oh, now revenue growth is slowing? Good news is, at 8x cash flow, it’s cheaper than ever. And at least that CF is still growing a little. $81.
“Oh, cash flow is stagnating too? Now it’s 7x cash flow. Crazy cheap! Keep buying back those shares, Boss. $72.
“Oh, the company needs to reinvest margins to stabilize top-line declines? Sure, now cash flow is 20% lower, but the multiple is holding in at 6x on that lower cash flow. And my Lord, look at the share buybacks. These losses hurt, but this is so cheap. With these buybacks, I might eventually own the last share - I’m finna be rich. $48.
“Oh, now you have to stop buybacks and repay debt, pushing out shareholder returns for 2+ years? That’s fine because it’s so cheap: only 5x the smaller cash flow. $40.
“These declines are temporary - our new CEO will right the ship. And I get all this for $36?! Graham and Dodd would be proud. I bet this is what Buffett felt like in ‘74.”
when you share you found a 3x P/FCF stock, please don't fail to mention it is calculated on last year's cash flows and next year's will be down -30% and the year after that it will be another -50% hihi
I just published a full breakdown on how to calculate this, why I ignore the charts, and how operating leverage turns boring companies into cash-gushing machines.
Read the full breakdown for free here:
https://t.co/4N5qUyfGBE
A LOT of people treat the stock market like a casino.
They draw squiggly lines on charts, read the tea leaves, and hope for the best.
Here is the actual, middle-school math that drives a 126% stock return. 🧵
If a company grows profits by 20%, expands its multiple from 10x to 15x, and pays a 5% dividend... you don't just get a 25% return.
You get the Lollapalooza effect. 1+1 = 3.
@Floebertus Yeah ive come across the company doing a-z in poland but i think they didnt have an odd lot clause - so the arb play wouldnt work
But there is another odd lot at play now OPTU (also written about on my substack) - you could still be able to make it it closes on June 30th
💸ODD LOT ALERT: Aumann AG tender offer at €17.80 per share—a premium over the current market price of ~€15.45.
PROFIT: Buy 100 shares at €15.45: €1,545.00, Tender 100 shares at €17.80: €1,780.00
MAX GROSS PROFIT: €235.00
https://t.co/oFCnxLOqUf