Numerous European Countries have been discussing the imminent implementation of a Digital Services Tax on American Companies, any Country that imposes such a Tax will immediately be met with a 100% TARIFF on any and all Goods. President DONALD J. TRUMP
@JoshMandell6@SimonDixonTwitt@toobaddown $5k would have been a good level. We could have seen a blow-off top around $30kβ40k and then a pullback to $10k. More people would have been involved, and the move to $100k made this bull market feel much weaker. AI also took center stage, which played a role as well.
My guest today is Paul Tudor Jones (@ptj_official), one of the greatest macro traders of all time.
He correctly predicted the 1987 stock market crash and shorted the Japanese bubble in 1990. For over 40 years, his flagship fund has had a negative correlation to the S&P 500. 100% of his returns are alpha.
He says today's market has so many similarities to 2000, "the easiest bear market I've ever seen in my whole life."
He makes the case for going long dollar-yen, why Bitcoin beats gold as an inflation hedge, and why he was wrong about Warren Buffett.
But what I'll remember most from this conversation is Paul's zest for life. He's 71 and still wakes at 2:30 every morning to trade the London open. He works out for two hours a day. He walks with his wife every evening. He travels the country chasing peak spring and peak fall. He's so excited about the songs picked for his funeral that he wishes he could be there to hear them.
Paul has lived five lifetimes in one. He's one of the most entertaining and interesting people I've met, and the conversation will leave you searching to be as passionate about what you do as he is about what he does.
Enjoy!
Timestamps:
0:00 Intro
1:00 The Kindest Thing
13:19 Trading vs. Investing
17:33 Lessons from Warren Buffet
22:24 The Existential Risks of AI
29:54 The Nature of Trading
31:46 Bitcoin
35:55 Bubbles
42:08 A Day in the Life of PTJ
46:00 Information Overload
47:07 Passion for Markets
50:49 The Robin Hood Foundation
54:18 The Workless World
56:03 Journalism
1:00:00 Principal Components of a Great Life
1:05:06 Kill Them With Kindness
Have you guys ever experienced an 11.7 sigma event before?
Well you just did this week, exceeding the top of the dot-com bubble.
The cross-sectional standard deviation of annual returns within the S&P 500 Information Technology sector, as of April 15, 2026, dispersion hit 392.93, which sits 11.7 standard deviations above its long-term historical mean (data going back to 1973).
For context: The chart draws horizontal lines all the way up to +6 SD.
The current spike blows well past the +6 SD line.
Since 2002, the Bank of America's Bull & Bear Indicator has warned of market cycle tops with great accuracy.
We just completed one of those tops in Feb 2026 and we're likely in the process of verifying that top right now.