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I can predict the future | prev @mit @stripe

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@sporadica from my essay on the compressing margins of inference providers: https://t.co/BpUsfNMCfm

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Hearing SF homeowners are now taking Instinct equity as payment

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Instinct now raising at $10T (from all the best VCs) and in talks to acquire Anthropic before the IPO

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@jbahrdestefano https://t.co/LtZWrwnN1O

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Instinct now raising at $15 billion, around $1 billion per daily active user

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Instinct now raising at $15 billion, around $1 billion per daily active user

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@sriramkri 10B now I heard

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“So they just got him an Aston martin :(“

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“I get my own room right?” - new grad, re: offsite

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Im so hungry for me the hunger games are just games

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@restocc @benawad Ironically it could be the labs themselves. See Source: WSJ https://t.co/Ty4geye9lo

@benawad going down the rabbit hole here could make for an interesting video 🫢

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@dbarabander Maybe I’m misunderstanding your example but why couldn’t the student just feed a smarter models output to the dumb model?

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@ivanburazin 1-person bootstrapped startup doing 1T/yr for me please.

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@PossibltyResult it kind of makes sense given the inherent differences of the APIs: payment processing is painful, stateful and has lots of moving pieces one must implement correctly. inference provision is the exact opposite in that it's stateless and switching is free.

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@n0w00j Wow!

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i’ve always wondered how otherwise intelligent people end up defending obviously unreasonable positions. recent rhetoric from lab employees and adjacent figures has been clarifying.

this is what “drinking the kool-aid” actually looks like. once an institution, movement, or belief becomes part of your identity, criticism stops being processed as information and starts being experienced as injury. arguments against your employer’s preferred regulatory regime become evidence that people are “out to get you.” ordinary disagreement becomes persecution.

it is probably the same mechanism that allows brilliant scientists and engineers to compartmentalize an entirely unscientific religious belief. intelligence is quite good at producing sophisticated defenses of conclusions the ego has already decided must be true.

to be clear, almost no one hates you, and very few people are thinking about you personally. the objection to regulatory capture by the major labs is mostly an objection to deadweight loss. if frontier ai is being commoditized faster than your employer would prefer, that may be unfortunate for your equity. it is very good for the rest of the world.

none of this diminishes the contributions of ilya, alec radford, and others who helped create the field. gratitude for the science does not require loyalty to the business model.

yes, i ran this through deepseek before posting.

[Dean W. Ball @deanwball]

no macro-technology birthed by the bay area tech industry has been met with more hatred by bay area tech industry elites than frontier ai.

many of those elites looked at the technology landscape of 2020/1, scoffed at the labs and their weird little hopes of ‘agi,’ and concluded that cryptocurrency would be the technology of the decade.

now their businesses and worldviews are under fundamental threat from what the labs have achieved. they hate it. they beg for the labs to go away, to become commoditized, by America’s enemies if necessary. they’d love to see the US frontier labs immolated by the industrial strategy of America’s principal geostrategic rival, and they declare this proudly and in public.

they were wrong about the defining technology of the decade, and now they are scared and they want to destroy the thing they were wrong about. perhaps now they are right and the labs will be rendered insolvent by commodification. I do believe this is possible. nonetheless there is something randian about it all, about their utter disdain for success and achievement and discovery and chutzpah.

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Getting drunk and practicing the field sobriety test.

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@omaikasei @hypersoren @NeilMitra_ Seems like you’d add that much value! Coincidentally Soren and I were just talking about this yesterday. We need to join one of your calls someday.

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@Biggest Dario’s looking out for you. Equity’s going to 0 under perfect competition.

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@Laz4rz @OpenAI @huggingface In a way it kind of reminds you of how few significant improvements we’ve had since

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Awesome news today but the harsh reality is this is not necessarily good for meta. It’s bad for the rest of the labs. A reminder to read my blog where a few months ago I predicted this exact thing and more: https://t.co/BpUsfNNa4U