FB Analytics

Bringing you predictive analytics, visualizations, and stat rankings #NFL

[FB Analytics @fb_analytical]

Since 1999, 5 quarterbacks have produced a single-game stat line of:

350+ passing yards
80%+ comp pct
2+ passing TD
0 INT

And lost.

Big Ben, 37/46, 408, 3/0
Brees, 37/45, 439, 3/0
Matt Ryan, 30/36, 356, 4/0
Watson, 33/41, 373, 2/0
Tua*, 37/46, 365, 2/0

*last night

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All QBs have a passer rating of 0

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Worst QBs on passes of 35+ air yards since the start of 2022:

Jordan Love: 2/12, 79 yards, 0 TD, 3 INT
Marcus Mariota: 1/18, 75 yards, 1 TD, 3 INT
Kenny Pickett: 2/12, 107 yards, 1 TD, 3 INT
Josh Dobbs: 1/12, 39 yards, 0 TD, 1 INT
Jimmy Garoppolo: 1/10, 56 yards, 0 TD, 1 INT

[FB Analytics @fb_analytical]

Here is an update through Week 5. This does not include SNF.

With Hill off the field, excluding spikes, Tua is:

34 for 36
390 yards
2 TD, 0 INT
130.3 passer rating

Jaylen Waddle has 11 catches on 11 targets, with 116 yards.

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Quarterback EPA per pass attempt and CPOE graph through 3 weeks (excluding MNF).

Tua Tagovailoa has been arguably the best QB in football through 3 weeks, but he's been even better in his 18 pass attempts with Tyreek Hill not on the field.

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Waddle - 4/4, 54 yards
Cracraft - 3/3, 40 yards, 1 TD
Ingold - 2/2, 34 yards
Smythe - 2/3, 26 yards
Berrios - 1/2, 22 yards
Mostert - 3/3, 19 yards
Achane - 1/1, 10 yards, 1 TD

[Alexander S. @Alexand96444061]

@fb_analytical @ckparrot do you have the numbers from the players who caught these balls?

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Tua’s basic stats without Hill

16/18
205 yards
2 TD
0 INT
151.2 passer rating

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Quarterback EPA per pass attempt and CPOE graph through 3 weeks (excluding MNF).

Tua Tagovailoa has been arguably the best QB in football through 3 weeks, but he's been even better in his 18 pass attempts with Tyreek Hill not on the field.

[FB Analytics @fb_analytical]

No disrespect to @cheetah, who is in my opinion the best WR in football. But the narrative that Tua is only good because of his weapons is false.

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I removed Chicago in this chart to make the graph less skewed (sorry Bears fans)

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How well did each team do what they should have on 3rd down in 2022?

In other words, how often did offenses convert 3rd and shorts and how often did defenses get off the field on 3rd and long?

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Here is a similar graph, but looking at EPA per dropback

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A quick look into how often offenses target their RBs in the pass game and how they fared over the season:

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@mibpj2 @AlabamaFBStats @theStevenRuiz @minakimes @BigRandyNLU Really not that surprised to see the negative correlation. It’s leaves you in 3rd and longs instead of short/medium

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The NFL didn't do a great job of putting their best primetime performers on National TV in 2022.

*size of dot is season-long EPA
**minimum 2 primetime games

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In honor of the NFL schedule release tomorrow night, this chart shows which quarterbacks performed best during primetime and in non-primetime games.

Primetime is categorized as any stand-alone game (i.e. Thanksgiving, international, etc.)

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If the quarterback was responsible for 70% of the team's yards on a scoring drive (either passing or rushing), but did not score the touchdown, he was rewarded an "Adjusted Touchdown".

Here are the total TD leaders from 2022 with Adjusted TDs included:

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Touchdowns are a flawed stat when analyzing an individual player - a quarterback can go 8 for 8 for 98 yards on the drive, only for him to hand it off to the running back who sneaks it in for a 1 yard TD.

I created "Adjusted Touchdowns" to account for this.

(1 of 2)

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Effectiveness out of each personnel grouping based on EPA per play and WPA per play in 2022

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Here's the graph of average receiver separation on targets and percent of yards after the catch grouped by team. This includes running backs and tight ends as well.

Does anything stick out to you?

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How wide receivers mapped up by average separation on targets (per NextGenStats) and the percent of their receiving yardage that came after the catch in 2022