shock

trading journal

[shock @fentdoteth]

went all in btc at 28.3k

let it ride

[Simon @simononchain]

For everyone who watched hyperliquid:native run all cycle and never pulled the trigger, now might be the time.

In fact, I believe the case for $100 HYPE by the end of summer is very strong.

This is due to a mix of factors:

- First, Hyperliquid's underlying fundamentals are arguably stronger than they've ever been...

Yes, DESPITE monthly fees being down ~57% (from ~$145M in August to ~$63M in May).

Context matters here ^

We are in a DEEP crypto bear market, w/ BTC down ~50% from ATH.

That is to say this isn't a product of their market share eroding but, instead, due to structural and market-wide forces.

(e.g. Coinbase's revenue fell ~60% peak to trough last bear).

Even still, HYPE's revenue has held up surprisingly well, largely because they're servicing traders who want to trade (and list) non-crypto assets on HIP-3 markets: 24/7, permissionless, in a way ONLY they can really pull off.

This has, very clearly, found real PMF well outside even crypto natives (off-hours oil trading during global conflict being the perfect example).

//

For the first time too, there's a credible path to hyperliquid:native pulling in unexposed marginal capital from TradFi through ETFs (something required for a true parabolic ATH break).

TradFi allocators now have multiple Hyperliquid spot ETFs to choose from.

(Access had been a real blocker for anyone even considering exposure, even among positioned, crypto-native allocators post TGE)

The HL story has also now permeated outside of crypto, repeatedly even to the point now where HL is undeniable: multiple @WSJ features, a @citrini allocation, @CNBC charting it.

Set against an overwhelmingly successful SPCX pre-IPO market that became the "source of truth" on for everyone involved...

Yet, the best is likely yet to come here.

I expect the OpenAI and Anthropic markets to build off that momentum and pull in an EVEN MORE absurd amount of TradFi attention toward Hyperliquid.

(This is key because, at EOD we are all really just trading attention)>>

///

While, it might seem obvious to anyone in crypto - "everyone knows" Hyperliquid has been the most fundamentally sound project this cycle...

If these variables play out, I think we get a genuinely reflexive loop that could catch people offsides (assuming broader markets hold).

The most access to Hyperliquid there's ever been + repeated Wall Street and media attention + OpenAI/ Anthropic pre IPO markets = higher hyperliquid:native:

- more attention --->
- more flows --->
- higher price --->
- more attention--->
- repeat

For the FIRST time that means real TradFi bidders in the book

(Remember how ETH ran on far worse fundamentals?)

And if/when HYPE takes out its ATH, I believe a ton of sidelined crypto-native capital will chase as well.

(Shocking how little exposure many of us still have)

///

A couple other points worth touching on in the HL story...

1.) I believe it is very underdiscussed that @fomo (ex @dYdX team w/ reportedly ~500k users) built their perps product on HL's builder codes.

If their offering really takes off, which I think they will given how well their meme-centered product has done while the meme market's been dead, the builder code / "AWS of liquidity" narrative (not to mention marginal fees) will be dragged right back to the forefront.

(~40% of HL's active users already trade through third-party frontends, not the native UI.)

TradFi will LOVE this.

2.) While HIP-4 hasn't done as well as I'd have expected, I do think there's a chance HL becomes a viable competitor in prediction markets down the road, especially as those markets get aggregated and traded through terminals.

(Worth noting the comps here = Kalshi @ $22B & Polymarket @ $15B)

HL has arguably the most valuable user base in the space, and from a dev POV, building on Hyperliquid is far friendlier than anywhere else, large reason builder codes have taken off the way the have.

For this reason I do not think it's a stretch to say we could see this play out the same way their perps liquidity did, though it'll take time.

3.) Finally, USDH being acquired + Circle/Coinbase giving 90% of the USDC yield back to HL heavily derisks HYPE IMO

(not to mention the incremental ~$200M /yr in HYPE buybacks).

Two things here are true:

1. Circle and Coinbase are among the most connected companies in Washington and some of the highest spenders on lobbying
2. They've decided they can't afford not be part of Hyperliquid's growth story.

US approval or not, the non-KYC offshore market Binance has owned for years is more than enough reason for them to get in the mix.

Hyperliquid.

[Simon @simononchain]

"there is free money on the table zcash:native funding is 91% APR on hyperliquid vs 10% on bybit/binance...

please farm this for me"

who is building this?

[Simon @simononchain]

"i highly recommend you investigate this"

shilling a 36m mkt cap coin on the "biggest business podcast in the world"...

@jason what are we doing man

[Simon @simononchain]

fairly confident most of bitcoin's relative strength can be attributed to saylor

this week $strc has bought ~9,500 BTC (~$665M). today alone, 2,500+ BTC (~$185M) so far. last week the total was ~4,300 BTC (~$300M)

buying has more than doubled in 7 days

$strc is strategy's new preferred stock -- pays 11.5% monthly yield, tradfi can't get enough, saylor takes the cash and market-buys bitcoin

curious how long they can keep this running

[shock @fentdoteth]

fuck crypto im spending all my money on peter millar

[Simon @simononchain]

Bitcoin is getting brutally mogged by a narrative crisis it can't shake:

- Too political (Trump's pet asset)
- Too vulnerable (quantum risks)
- Not private enough (transparent ledger in a surveillance state)

Gold, meanwhile, just sits there being:

- Boring, tangible
- Politically neutral
- Free from any quantum risk

= actual flight to safety/debasement hedge

///

Over time these threats shouldn't be existential but they'll weigh for a while and have complicated the "Bitcoin Story".

The $1T to $10T journey will require institutional conviction at scale, which IMO - will not happen w/ narrative confusion.

BTC will needs to clearly win ONE dominant story:

- Quantum resistance is an upgrade cycle away (solvable)

- Trump association fades over time (if BSR happens it cuts both ways: supportive short-term but risks alienating other sovereigns + creates unwind risk under future admin. Conversation for another day.)

- Gold's scarcity story breaks down when space narrative grows --> asteroid mining, massive deposits on Mars, etc.

Right now, thought BTC remains in no man's land, not appealing to any core constituency.

- Sovereigns want gold
- Cypherpunks want privacy
- Institutions want quantum clarity

Eventually this snaps back, violently.

Maybe when gold's "physical scarcity" gets challenged or people remember why verifiable digital scarcity > "trust us there's no more gold anywhere."

Until then, not sure what catalyzes us out of this.

[shock @fentdoteth]

@keoneHD please pump this shit jfc

[ryoh 🕊️ @ryohhno]

how does ubering from one place to another cost $20 but the DoorDash delivery fee from the same places is $5

[shock @fentdoteth]

mkt is very bad

[shock @fentdoteth]

@uduz @Derivatives_Ape hey @uduz this fucker monke stole 20eth from me last year and never sent it back - maybe you could send a brotha some $ZEC too?👀🙏

[shock @fentdoteth]

@BNBCHAIN @bouncebit is literally the franklin tempelton black rock chain (backed by binance)

[Jack | BB @Jackventure]

And @bouncebit is currently the largest User of $Benji in trading through BB prime.

[shock @fentdoteth]

@bouncebit @cz_binance @yzilabs Shoulda finished this w “built better”

[shock @fentdoteth]

4 diet cokes
11 3mg zyns
12k steps

solid day so far

[shock @fentdoteth]

@ryohhno, i need some financial advice

fomc will be fine right?

[shock @fentdoteth]

@Derivatives_Ape @zachxbt @FIOD

[shock @fentdoteth]

@EddieHacopian Let bro cook

[shock @fentdoteth]

@simononchain

[shock @fentdoteth]

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