Feraz Kian

more like a diary

[euronews @euronews]

Europe's record breaking heatwaves this year have triggered debate on how the continent can prepare for a hotter future.

That's the subject of tonight's episode of #TheRing, with MEPs Benedetta Scuderi and Andrea Wechsler.

Tune in at 20.30 CET on Euronews.

[euronews @euronews]

Iranian state TV has aired weapons training featuring simulated shootings at Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu.

Broadcasts also showed children receiving military-style training in mosques across the country.

https://t.co/vC34sRVRJD

[Math Files @Math_files]

Bayes’ theorem is probably the single most important thing any rational person can learn.

So many of our debates and disagreements that we shout about are because we don’t understand Bayes’ theorem or how human rationality often works.

Bayes’ theorem is named after the 18th-century Thomas Bayes, and essentially it’s a formula that asks: when you are presented with all of the evidence for something, how much should you believe it?

Bayes’ theorem teaches us that our beliefs are not fixed; they are probabilities. Our beliefs change as we weigh new evidence against our assumptions, or our priors. In other words, we all carry certain ideas about how the world works, and new evidence can challenge them.

For example, somebody might believe that smoking is safe, that stress causes mouth ulcers, or that human activity is unrelated to climate change. These are their priors, their starting points. They can be formed by our culture, our biases, or even incomplete information.

Now imagine a new study comes along that challenges one of your priors. A single study might not carry enough weight to overturn your existing beliefs. But as studies accumulate, eventually the scales may tip. At some point, your prior will become less and less plausible.

Bayes’ theorem argues that being rational is not about black and white. It’s not even about true or false. It’s about what is most reasonable based on the best available evidence. But for this to work, we need to be presented with as much high-quality data as possible. Without evidence—without belief-forming data—we are left only with our priors and biases. And those aren’t all that rational.

[Feraz Kian @ferazkian]

@MFATurkiye Just FYI, it’s not national day of Iran, it’s day of (add some adjectives here) Islamic Republic. It’s not national and it’s not Iran.

[🍂 @Lovandfear]

— Haruki Murakami

[billie eilish @billieeilish]

Billie singing WILDFLOWER on COLORS https://t.co/p8G0GGOQJ4

[Feraz Kian @ferazkian]

system is online, again.

[Feraz Kian @ferazkian]

what goes around comes around

[Feraz Kian @ferazkian]

Today I was chatting with a friend who married looong time ago and recently became mom. When she asked “what about you?”, I was like “yeah, me? Babysitting but in another way”

[✒️ @Literariium]

there is still time. there is still time. until your bones are in the fucking ground there is still time.

[Feraz Kian @ferazkian]

the moon is beautiful, isn’t it?

[🍂 @Lovandfear]

— Franz Kafka

[Feraz Kian @ferazkian]

https://t.co/yKu4XSl9PK

[Feraz Kian @ferazkian]

we both know, we do still love for some reason we don’t know lol

[Feraz Kian @ferazkian]

CHIHIRO must be the latest element. Mendeleev wake up please