Michael Fiddle

My content helps you beat the books in sports betting. NBA/NFL/WNBA sharp bettor and +CLV getter. Contributor @YahooSports & @ActionNetworkHQ

[Michael Fiddle @FiddlesPicks]

Spurs -5.5 and under 215.5 were immediate clicks at game 2 open.

I’ve never been so split on what I want to happen (Knicks) vs what I am betting (Spurs).

I find value Spurs and thus I will bet it (my moneyline spurs today closed +EV against consensus devigged true odds and was right about a spurs money push at post).

I’m a lifelong New Yorker. Grew up in westchester, went to NYU, lived in manhattan for a decade after college. I can’t not be excited for the Knicks once I see them in the finals.

I truly can’t remember being so split on what I bet vs what I root for…. I’m lebrons biggest fan- I wanted rockets because my money was on them. Same with OKC. The stakes were less high.

[Luis @LAMichel92]

@FiddlesPicks Konnichiwa!! What we thinking for Game 2 boss?!

[Michael Fiddle @FiddlesPicks]

@AuguralHope @gorman2021 Undebatably yes. She runs in transition faster than most bigs in the league, can space in half court, can get offensive rebounds. I dont think it’s an 8 point switch, so there was under sentiment once she was out, but yes her in will increase total not debatable

[Michael Fiddle @FiddlesPicks]

NBA Finals starts in 12 hours here are my bets.

NYK @ SAS Under 218.5 (1u)
Knicks +4.5 (0.5u)
Spurs 1Q Game 6 vs OKC ✅ + Knicks +4.5 parlay (+264, 0.25u)*might hedge

WNBA
PHX Mercury -4.5 (0.5u)
PHX @ SEA Ov 161.5 (-114, 0.5u)
Alyssa Thomas Ov 7.5 Reb (+107, 0.25u)

BOL!

[Michael Fiddle @FiddlesPicks]

The level of disrespect this photo does to Olivia Miles fro can’t be understated

[StatMuse @statmuse]

The most 3P in a game by a rookie in WNBA history:

[Michael Fiddle @FiddlesPicks]

NBA Last 2 Minute report says:

This is NOT a travel.

This IS a foul on Devin Vassell, incorrectly not called and should have been an And-1

[Jimmy Spencer @JimmySpencer]

Not a hater but this is clearly a travel. So yes, how do you play sound defense on that?

[Michael Fiddle @FiddlesPicks]

@iamrahstradamus Real gambler. I’m retired from sports watch parties unless I got zero action on it.

[Michael Fiddle @FiddlesPicks]

I’d say no straight bets are crazy, unless you are willingly playing into a bad number at post.

NFL game about to kickoff with plenty of -3s
(-110) available but you only have access to a -3.5 (-105), down right crazy. Result doesn’t matter.

Here I would think spurs money comes and you can do better waiting for Knicks ML

[Jacob @iheartassets]

Call me crazy I think Knicks moneyline at +190 is a take. Knicks didn’t even play good yesterday, down 14 and end up winning by 10 on a night they didn’t shoot well. Plenty of room for spurs improvement as well but damn I think the Knicks are the better team right now at least when it counts

[Jason Irvine 🌮 🌮 🌮 @jasonirvine]

Let’s fucking gooooooooo

[Michael Fiddle @FiddlesPicks]

@DrewRipsCards Lolllllllll

[Michael Fiddle @FiddlesPicks]

As someone who regularly looks for these spots, the liquidity is often gone once you realize the game is decided and Knicks have two dash marks next to it, and Spurs show 1c (which is a horrific bet).

These markets are efficient and fast. Very rare to have 10k liquid with seconds left in a 10 pt game. Very very rare. Usually zero.

[Matty Chucks @MattyChucks]

This might be the smartest thing I’ve seen in a minute…👀

if we can do this on Polymarket what the hell are we waiting for!?

[Michael Fiddle @FiddlesPicks]

My wnba plays today:

Dream @ Fever Ov 172.5 (0.75u)
GS Valkyries +3.5 and ML (0.5u each)

BOL!

[berterame @LuckyFish_4]

@FiddlesPicks any wnba play man ? great games today

[Michael Fiddle @FiddlesPicks]

@Blen545 Prob real just not repeatable

[Dan Abrams @DoctorRazzWSOP]

@FiddlesPicks The math doesn’t care about your feelings.

[Michael Fiddle @FiddlesPicks]

My guy a month back or so I quote tweeted your post about broadcast packages for sports & forwarded it to @grok asking for the 5 most reliable illegal sports streaming sites so I can make sure I block them & never use. I suggest referring to that post in trying times like this. I watched from Japan today with ease.

[Jared Smith @jaredsmithbets]

POV: You’re a Knicks fan living in Vegas who can’t watch the NBA finals or the Stanley Cup final because of a contract dispute between DIRECTV and Scripps who runs the the ABC affiliate

[Michael Fiddle @FiddlesPicks]

@brianpe90643543 @betsonbets Yup. -110? Yes

[Michael Fiddle @FiddlesPicks]

Spurs -5.5 and under 215.5 were immediate clicks at game 2 open.

I’ve never been so split on what I want to happen (Knicks) vs what I am betting (Spurs).

I find value Spurs and thus I will bet it (my moneyline spurs today closed +EV against consensus devigged true odds and was right about a spurs money push at post).

I’m a lifelong New Yorker. Grew up in westchester, went to NYU, lived in manhattan for a decade after college. I can’t not be excited for the Knicks once I see them in the finals.

I truly can’t remember being so split on what I bet vs what I root for…. I’m lebrons biggest fan- I wanted rockets because my money was on them. Same with OKC. The stakes were less high.

[Luis @LAMichel92]

@FiddlesPicks Konnichiwa!! What we thinking for Game 2 boss?!

[Michael Fiddle @FiddlesPicks]

@Tripledoublekng Closing line or outcome?

[Michael Fiddle @FiddlesPicks]

@Tripledoublekng Don’t care about the result just care where the line closes. Above 215.5?

[Michael Fiddle @FiddlesPicks]

@LAMichel92

[Michael Fiddle @FiddlesPicks]

No hedging of emotions happening. I truly just don’t bet w emotions. A groundwork of ratings system and model and market read. If I beat the devigged closing line, my process was good. Just trying to repeat this high consistency and volume.

*exceptions are sometimes I find some edges the market is yet to reflect, and I have to do the homework to try and quantify the edge to determine how to risk stake it (and often I’m too conservative here)

[Luis @LAMichel92]

@FiddlesPicks Sounds like you’re hedging emotions brother lol. If the Knicks win, your heart is happy, if the spurs win, your pockets are happy. Love it!

[Michael Fiddle @FiddlesPicks]

@betsonbets Under yes. Spread no.

Said last stream I did the number 1 thing I was looking for was spurs to be -6.5 game 2 because not coming off the game 7 less rest spot.

-6.5 is where I’d price fair. No edge

[Michael Fiddle @FiddlesPicks]

@LAMichel92 I played spurs -5.5 and under 215.5

I’m out n about now idk what’s available. Would play 214.5 and -6 probably

[Michael Fiddle @FiddlesPicks]

And I already clicked into G2 ATS/Totals

[Chris Rizzo @TheRiz42]

@FiddlesPicks Successful capping recognizes no time zone differences!