Philip John

Internet Privacy advocate, Green energy supporter, Programmer, Chess player.

[Philip John @filipposkat1998]

https://t.co/0JCiM2GHQA
Bayesian greek elections forecasting model.
Instead of focusing on individual polls, it estimates the underlying trajectory of public opinion by combining many surveys over time.
1️⃣ Poll aggregation
2️⃣ Pollster ratings
3️⃣ Fundamentals model

#Elections

[Stefanos Tyros @StefanosTyros]

Και να, που οι ΑΠΕ ρίχνουν τις τιμές του ρεύματος στην Ελλάδα.

Το ενδιαφέρον είναι ότι η μείωση είναι μικρότερη σε σχέση με άλλες χώρες.

[Ricardo @Ric_RTP]

Warren Buffett just warned that the US dollar could collapse and admitted he doesn't understand most of the stock market anymore.

95 years old, sitting on $380 billion in cash, and the first time watching from the sidelines instead of actively investing.

And what he revealed at this weekend's Berkshire shareholder meeting is genuinely concerning:

On the market, Buffett didn't hold back.

He compared it to "a church with a casino attached" and said the casino has never been more packed. On one-day options: "That is not investing. It's not speculating. It's gambling. Totally."

He pointed to the Avis short squeeze THIS WEEK. A rental car company that's been around for 50 years getting meme-squeezed in 2026. The same behavior that blew up retail traders with GameStop is back, except now it's hitting boring legacy companies with zero business being volatile.

"We have lots more regulation now, but people spend their time figuring out how to get around the rules rather than follow the rules."

That one sentence explains more about the current market than every CNBC segment combined.

When asked why he's hoarding $380 billion instead of investing it, Buffett said something no one expected:

"I understand fewer of the businesses as a percentage of the whole than I did 10 years ago. I have not learned new industries for some years. I'm not going to have an edge on a whole bunch of younger people that have actually grown up with it."

Think about what he's actually saying...

This is a man who made $140 billion by understanding businesses better than anyone alive. And he's telling you the current market is so detached from reality that even HE can't make sense of what's being valued and why.

He quoted IBM's Tom Watson Sr.: "I'm smart in spots and I stay around those spots."

In 60 years of managing money, he said MAYBE five were "really juicy." Five out of sixty. That means 92% of his career was spent WAITING while everyone else gambled. And he still ended up richer than all of them.

Then the conversation turned to inflation and that's where it gets really interesting:

Buffett said America is "not immune" from runaway inflation. He brought up countries that went bankrupt "six or seven times" in his lifetime.

Compared today to right before Volcker had to rescue the dollar, when Americans were borrowing at 12% to buy farmland earning 6% because they believed the dollar would disappear.

"Cash is trash" was the mentality.

Nebraska farmers collapsed
because of it. Entire communities wiped out not by a recession but by a BELIEF that the currency was dying. And Buffett sees that same energy building again.

Then someone asked the question everyone wanted answered: Do you see a crash coming?

"If you saw it coming, it wouldn't happen. The things people are talking about and thinking about? It's not going to happen. But there are things that can come out of the blue."

He compared it to the assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand in 1914 that triggered World War I. Nobody was discussing or anticipating it. But it changed the world overnight.

"That's particularly true now because of the things that can come out of the sky."

A 95yo man who has survived every crash, every war, every crisis of the last six decades just told you the market is a casino, the dollar isn't safe, and the real collapse will be something nobody sees coming.

$380 billion in cash is his answer because he believes things are about to get much worse.

[KalpiCast @KalpiCast]

Στατιστική ανάλυση όλων των ελληνικών δημοσκοπήσεων από το 2015: ποιες εταιρείες είναι οι πιο αξιόπιστες;

https://t.co/DiUH5E151o

[KalpiCast @KalpiCast]

Το προγνωστικό μοντέλο ενημερώθηκε με τις τελευταίες δημοσκοπήσεις μετά το αίτημα Ευρωπαϊκής Εισαγγελίας για την άρση της ασυλίας 11 βουλευτών, σχετικά με τον ΟΠΕΚΕΠΕ.

Παρουσιάζεται μικρή πτώση της ΝΔ, με παράλληλη άνοδος του ΠΑΣΟΚ και των αναποφάσιστων.
https://t.co/l2FwLek0xw

[KalpiCast @KalpiCast]

Άνοδος ΝΔ (+2.4%), ΠΑΣΟΚ (+1.5%) και μείωση των Αναποφάσιστων (-2.8%), στην τελευταία δημοσκόπηση της MRB για το OPEN.

Το προγνωστικό μοντέλο του KalpiCast ενσωμάτωσε την νεα δημοσκόπηση, δείτε την πιθανότητα αυτοδυναμίας και όλες τις προβλέψεις στο: https://t.co/HhI6amu9r6

[CNN Breaking News @cnnbrk]

Anthropic sues Pentagon after Trump administration designates the AI company as a "supply chain risk."
https://t.co/hiaKRLnEGF

[Philip John @filipposkat1998]

3️⃣ Fundamentals model
Economic and structural indicators help explain shifts in incumbent support beyond what polls capture.
#Economics

[Philip John @filipposkat1998]

https://t.co/0JCiM2GHQA
Bayesian greek elections forecasting model.
Instead of focusing on individual polls, it estimates the underlying trajectory of public opinion by combining many surveys over time.
1️⃣ Poll aggregation
2️⃣ Pollster ratings
3️⃣ Fundamentals model

#Elections

[Philip John @filipposkat1998]

2️⃣ Pollster ratings
Not all pollsters perform equally well. The model evaluates historical accuracy and systematic bias and adjusts their influence.
#Statistics

[Philip John @filipposkat1998]

@JonTatum @gelliottmorris Take a look at Murphy's law (https://t.co/7fCbESms8P)

[Philip John @filipposkat1998]

@hole_ghost @gelliottmorris This is a very good question

[Philip John @filipposkat1998]

@BernieSanders Unless you become the VP candidate, Trump wins the election 100%

[Philip John @filipposkat1998]

@NancyFaeser @DiEM_25

[Philip John @filipposkat1998]

@NancyFaeser So this is how liberty dies. With thunderous applause.

[CNN Breaking News @cnnbrk]

Four Minneapolis police officers have been fired after the death of a black man seen in a video with one of the four kneeling on his neck https://t.co/6ZPyb3j3qr

[Philip John @filipposkat1998]

@AppleSupport Hello! I am experiencing an issue with my iPhone 6s for about a month. Whenever someone calls me and I accept or decline the call, my phones keeps ringing indefinitely. When this happens I cannot use my phone and I have to restart. I doesn’t happen always though.

[Ευρωπαϊκή Επιτροπή 🇪🇺 @EEAthina]

Ο τελευταίος λόγος για τη νομοθεσία της ΕΕ εκφέρεται πάντα στο Λουξεμβούργο. Πουθενά αλλού.

Αναλύουμε λεπτομερώς την απόφαση του Γερμανικού Συντ/κού Δικαστηρίου. Πιθανά επόμενα βήματα μπορεί να περιλαμβάνουν τη διαδικασία επί παραβάσει
👉https://t.co/H5AOUjqBx7

[World Health Organization (WHO) @WHO]

WHO declared #COVID19 a Public Health Emergency of International Concern on 30 January 2020, when there were less than 100 cases, and no deaths, outside of #China.

[Philip John @filipposkat1998]

Please don't believe everything you see about COVID-19. Get informed by reliable sources only! Please take a moment and read the following Myth Busters from World Health Organization. https://t.co/Oa60WFToCq