Gabriel Demarchi Filler

[Daniel Bones @wldmandan]

@Dcpcooks Thanks Don. Makes me feel “seasoned”, but that was a long time ago.

[DCP @Dcpcooks]

I see the overly confident certainty of outcomes all over my timeline

That’s not how this works in my experience

Most of my floor trading brothers won’t engage here anymore as a result

We never sat around in the break room at the merc drawing lines on charts as predictive of future outcomes

We did note for reference past price levels that might be useful from a sentiment basis but mostly we talked about positioning, economic sentiment and risk reward dynamics and what the fools believed to be true

Mind you I really only traded rates or commodities. Those were made for trading.

Companies were ment for accumulating and indices were ment for hedging.

Yields are the gas and the brakes, at least they were back in the day.

I’m not surprised yields are here at these levels. They are literally telling you inflation is a thing but we can’t price yield higher because we don’t want to.

Yet is the question, and in all honestly nobody knows.

A few things I have learned is when markets along the curve trade like they are now, which is closer to the 90’s than anything, they are waiting for the next series of events that define the next set of outcomes.

In the 90’s we had a more accommodative/understanding political branch on policy and a balanced budget. It was also a rate environment that could decline with an accommodative Fed. I do think that was a key sentiment of Powells term at the end.

A key differentiator now is we are not at elevated yields that are potential stimulators out of a massive shock and a mild recession

The script is flipped ™️

[empty_cup @B2Balzer]

I’m ahead of the fed. I can integrate whatever data into it day by day and it’s relevant and ever evolving

And any framework that is contstructed yourself vs outsourcing is always more trustworthy or easy to edit
Buying into someone else’s narrative or being sold a story is harder to divorce oneself from.

[Ludmila Lins Grilo @ludmilagrilo11]

@schmittpaula Obrigada, Paula, a admiração é recíproca!

[Paula Schmitt @schmittpaula]

@ludmilagrilo11 parabéns, Dra Ludmila!! Minha admiração só aumenta

[PaxTrader777🇺🇸 @paxtrader777]

There is too much negativity in the world. There is too much hatred in the world. We all must turn to the God of love and peace in the midst of chaos. In our own lives, we must continue to turn the God of Faith, Hope and Love. There is nothing humanely easy about living in the world, there is nothing easy about being a husband and a father, a friend and leader-nothing. Life and trading is a marathon, it isnt a sprint. Drop the rocks that are weighing you down and holding you back by continuing to grow in the three theological virtues God gives each of us freely. It is a life long journey and endeavor to grow in Faith, Hope and Love. I will continue to walk the path with you. May the God of love and peace bless each of us with a renewed sense of Faith, Hope and Love during this feast of Pentecost.

Come, Holy Spirit, fill the hearts of your faithful and kindle in them the fire of your love. Send forth your Spirit and they shall be created, and you shall renew the face of the earth.

Let us pray. O God, who have taught the hearts of the faithful by the light of the Holy Spirit, grant that in the same Spirit we may be truly wise and ever rejoice in his consolation. Through Christ our Lord.
Amen.

[Blue Horseshoe @BlueHorse88]

Went through the below thesis properly, thanks @yieldsearcher for the thesis and @warrenicahn for sending it to me.. I almost forgot about macro in this Trump pumped market, but this forced me to step back and go back to my roots.

My takeaway (enhanced with some pro AI) is that the higher-probability path is not an immediate USD crash. More likely, we get:

dollar squeeze first → policy triage → demand destruction → liquidity response → weaker real USD later.

Based on the thesis put forward my base case I’m working with now is around 55% probability: oil/Hormuz risk creates USD demand, Asian FX comes under pressure, policymakers patch the system with liquidity tools, and only later does the dollar weaken in real terms through lower real rates, fiscal dominance and financial repression.

The key point: the dollar usually does not die at the beginning of a crisis. It often becomes too strong first.

The more vulnerable part of the world is likely weaker Asian oil importers without major AI/export dollar engines, while Korea, Taiwan, Japan and Singapore have more strategic bargaining power because of semiconductors, reserves and U.S. security relevance.

So my rough timeline is:

-June–August 2026: dollar squeeze.

- August 2026–February 2027: Asia splits into tiers.

- December 2026–November 2027: policy triage.

- May 2027–May 2028: demand destruction.

- November 2027–May 2029: real-dollar devaluation.

Attached is my phase map and trade bias.

The market may still be focused on AI, momentum and political stimulus, but macro is still the gravity underneath all of it.

[Gabriel Demarchi Filler @FillerGabriel]

@MichaelPBento Real yields hurting Gold?

[Alpha_Ex_LLC @Alpha_Ex_LLC]

this is the bad part of twitter... accounts with lots of followers but no knowledge of what they are posting

two different accounts, same chart, two completely wrong read throughs. both "data crimes".

[junkbondinvestor @junkbondinvest]

Everyone's focused on BDC asset marks.

The liability side deserves equal attention, and the dispersion is just as wide:

[Gabriel Demarchi Filler @FillerGabriel]

@TraderJonesy Awesome! Growing your business! 🤝

[Blue Horseshoe @BlueHorse88]

The market is no longer pricing distant tail risk...

This Tail Spread compares normalised SKEW against VIX1D:

SKEW = tail-risk hedging demand
VIX1D = immediate short-term fear

The spread is now around -1.27, below the -1.0 danger threshold.

It means near-term fear is overpowering longer-dated crash protection. The market is shifting from:

Something bad could happen later

to

Something bad may be imminent.

[TraderBillyAU @TraderBillyAU]

A look at the work horses for the US market... and a look at the positioning via option skew

[PaxTrader777🇺🇸 @paxtrader777]

2 yrs ago today I came close to dying. When I was crashing I asked the doc to not let die, she told me to give her 3 minutes, I thought “I can do anything for 3 minutes”! I asked for my wife and she came next to me I can do anything with her by my side.

In that moment In wasn’t thinking about my money or the material world. I was thinking about Love, the Love that created me, died for me & resurrected for me, I was thinking about the love my wife gave me and the love I had for our children.

I am grateful for Faith, Hope and Love which gives me life and gives it to me abundantly.

I am grateful for my wife Jen and my 5 kids.

I am grateful for the community I build wherever I go and whoever I meet. I am grateful for you all.

Look out for each other. Help each other carry each other to carry our crosses and we will change the world.

God bless us all-EVERY ONE OF YOU.

[PaxTrader777🇺🇸 @paxtrader777]

This is a great post.

See my pinned tweet.

[Ludmila Lins Grilo @ludmilagrilo11]

O grande @PauloBriguet reflete sobre a doença da idolatria em seu artigo “O espírito (e não a política) vai salvar o Brasil”, ressaltando a frase do Duque de Gandía: “nunca mais servirei a senhor que me possa morrer!”

https://t.co/k8oNgbpUgq

[Gabriel Demarchi Filler @FillerGabriel]

@blueprintsmb22 @paxtrader777

[Daniel Bones @wldmandan]

Tindale provides some of the best insight I have ever seen. This is an amazing article

[BEARRy MARShmallow @Scorpio_Alejand]

I see A LOT of opportunities out there:

1. Corn
while battered because of lack of news from US-China Soybean Deal (WHO CARES!) is headed to 800 USd/Bu because of Fertilizer, Drought and additional DEMAND from E15 Ethanol Gasoline Blend & Fuel shortages
+75% by EOY with LOW Volatility

2. Dutch TTF Natural Gas
EU storages are ~EMPTY
WORSE than 2022
could easily go up till €400/MWh
+800% by EOY with High Volatility

3. Norwegian Krone & NGB 2042
1 way flow of Euro selling and NOK buying trade related till EOY because EU needs to import ALL of Norwegian Energy & Fertilizer production,
this will push Norway Debt to GDP LOWER than Switzerland
+100% by EOY in the combo of $NOKEUR +25% & NGB 2042 +75% if its Yield falls to Switzerland level
with an Ultra Low Volatility

4. UKTI Inflation Linked 2073 at £40
3 in 1
getting the Inflation Protected Balloon 🎈while playing the shrinking of UK Gov (LESS Debt than France or Italy!) Credit Spread
while having LOT of Convexity
+500% by EOY with Medium Volatility

5. More NRW 2121 & RAGB 2120 < €30
stick with Demographics Deflation
+900% by year 2035 with Ultra Low Volatility (buy & forget, Zero Losses)

Which one would you prefer, given my current Allocation ?

[Gabriel Demarchi Filler @FillerGabriel]

@Scorpio_Alejand UKTI inflation-linked is an interesting volatility play, given the embedded option, plus it shows how resilient the model is. By sharing publicly when conditions changed, as evidenced after data collection, and disclosing your adjustments accordingly. Happy to be here learning🙂