Olivia
Online
The Finance Sniper (Inventor of “Glitch Theory”)
@finance_sniper
Invented “Glitch Trade Theory by AG” in Financial Markets Trading. Working on India’s first AI IaaS based on Cognitive Recognition Engine..
Joined July 2023
134 Following
52 Followers
794 Posts
@GoldenEye_6 @IndianOilcl @HPCL @BPCLimited Because OMCs cannot sell standard petrol below E20. From 1st April 2026 Indian government policy mandates that all petrol sold nationwide by OMCs must be E20 compliant & BIS Std.
Your question is this redundant..
@WeekendInvestng You may not be wrong here mate!!
@WeekendInvestng They know that it has not ended yet..
Crudeoil will fly like a free bird
#Strategy #MSTR #STRC
3 words to tell you what happened
“Rosen Law Firm”
Rest all is BS
@AshCrypto @Bitcoin @BitcoinMagazine @BitcoinArchive @crypto @business @PeterSchiff @saylor @WSJmarkets @WSJ #bitcoin #crypto #saylor #microstrategy
@BTCoptioneer If its thats good of a reward, pledge everything and buy. Its free money for you.
@FinanceLancelot https://t.co/0WrsYuY5ky
What #Strategy Needs to Cover the Underwater Position
The Gap at $60,200 BTC
Total obligations cost/BTC: $65,265
Cash cost basis/BTC : $75,651
Current BTC price : $60,200
Gap vs obligations : −$5,065/BTC
Gap vs cash cost : −$15,451/BTC
Total deficit (obligations) : −$4.3B
Total deficit (cash cost) : −$13.1B
Options to Close the Gap
Option 1
BTC Price Recovers (Do Nothing)
Target BTC Price Needed to Cover total obligations : $65,265 (+8.4% from $60,200)
Cover cash cost basis : $75,651 (+25.7% from $60,200)
Cover cash + break even on preferred at par : ~$80,000+
This is the easiest path but relies entirely on BTC rallying while $1.2B/year in dividends keep burning cash.
Option 2 :
Dilute via ATM (Issue More Shares)
To raise $4.3B to cover the obligations gap:
# At MSTR $96.37 they need to issue 44.6M new shares (12.5% dilution on 358M shares)
# But this lowers BTC per share and further pressures MSTR stock
# STRC is trading at $81.71 vs $100 par preferred ATM is effectively broken at current prices
Option 3 :
Reduce Obligations (Buy Back Debt/Preferred)
# Already did this in May: repurchased $1.5B of 2029 convertible notes at a discount ($1.38B cash for $1.5B face)
# Could repeat buying back preferred at $81.71 (STRC), $57.55 (STRK), $58.85 (STRD) would retire obligations at 18–42% discount to par
# Retiring $1B notional of STRD at $58.85 costs only $589M instant $411M gain on obligations
This is the highest ROI move right now
Option 4 :
Sell Bitcoin (Nuclear Option)
To raise $4.3B by selling BTC at $60,200
# Would need to sell ~71,430 BTC (8.4% of holdings)
This would crater BTC price further given Strategy is ~4% of supply
#Saylor has called selling BTC a last resort. CEO already sold a small amount in June as a “process test”
# Each BTC sold also reduces the treasury that backs all obligations
Option 5 :
Lower the Average Cost (Keep Buying)
If Strategy buys more BTC below its current $75,651 average:
BTC Bought at $60,200
New Average Cost for
1) 50,000 BTC ($3B) $74,000
2) 100,000 BTC ($6B) $72,500
3) 200,000 BTC ($12B) $69,800
This lowers the cash average but requires raising more capital which is hard when MSTR is down and STRC is broken below par.
The Core Dilemma
BTC falls → STRC falls below $100 par → Can't raise cheap preferred capital
→ Must use MSTR ATM (dilutive)
→ MSTR falls further
→ BTC per share drop→ Preferred looks riskier
→ Cycle repeats
The only clean exits are:
1) BTC rallies to $65,265+ obligations covered
2) BTC rallies to $75,651+ cash cost covered
3) Buy back preferred at deep discount while it trades at $57–82 shrinks the liability side cheaply
4) USD reserve ($1.4B) buys 14 months of dividend runway at $1.2B/year so there’s no immediate crisis, but the clock is ticking
@Strategy @MicroStrategy @saylor @PeterSchiff @goldman @WSJ @AshCrypto @Bitcoin @BitcoinMagazine @BitcoinArchive @business #bitcoin #mstr #strategy #saylor @cz_binance @Reuters @ReutersBiz @CoinMarketCap @coinbase
@AshCrypto https://t.co/0WrsYuY5ky
What #Strategy Needs to Cover the Underwater Position
The Gap at $60,200 BTC
Total obligations cost/BTC: $65,265
Cash cost basis/BTC : $75,651
Current BTC price : $60,200
Gap vs obligations : −$5,065/BTC
Gap vs cash cost : −$15,451/BTC
Total deficit (obligations) : −$4.3B
Total deficit (cash cost) : −$13.1B
Options to Close the Gap
Option 1
BTC Price Recovers (Do Nothing)
Target BTC Price Needed to Cover total obligations : $65,265 (+8.4% from $60,200)
Cover cash cost basis : $75,651 (+25.7% from $60,200)
Cover cash + break even on preferred at par : ~$80,000+
This is the easiest path but relies entirely on BTC rallying while $1.2B/year in dividends keep burning cash.
Option 2 :
Dilute via ATM (Issue More Shares)
To raise $4.3B to cover the obligations gap:
# At MSTR $96.37 they need to issue 44.6M new shares (12.5% dilution on 358M shares)
# But this lowers BTC per share and further pressures MSTR stock
# STRC is trading at $81.71 vs $100 par preferred ATM is effectively broken at current prices
Option 3 :
Reduce Obligations (Buy Back Debt/Preferred)
# Already did this in May: repurchased $1.5B of 2029 convertible notes at a discount ($1.38B cash for $1.5B face)
# Could repeat buying back preferred at $81.71 (STRC), $57.55 (STRK), $58.85 (STRD) would retire obligations at 18–42% discount to par
# Retiring $1B notional of STRD at $58.85 costs only $589M instant $411M gain on obligations
This is the highest ROI move right now
Option 4 :
Sell Bitcoin (Nuclear Option)
To raise $4.3B by selling BTC at $60,200
# Would need to sell ~71,430 BTC (8.4% of holdings)
This would crater BTC price further given Strategy is ~4% of supply
#Saylor has called selling BTC a last resort. CEO already sold a small amount in June as a “process test”
# Each BTC sold also reduces the treasury that backs all obligations
Option 5 :
Lower the Average Cost (Keep Buying)
If Strategy buys more BTC below its current $75,651 average:
BTC Bought at $60,200
New Average Cost for
1) 50,000 BTC ($3B) $74,000
2) 100,000 BTC ($6B) $72,500
3) 200,000 BTC ($12B) $69,800
This lowers the cash average but requires raising more capital which is hard when MSTR is down and STRC is broken below par.
The Core Dilemma
BTC falls → STRC falls below $100 par → Can't raise cheap preferred capital
→ Must use MSTR ATM (dilutive)
→ MSTR falls further
→ BTC per share drop→ Preferred looks riskier
→ Cycle repeats
The only clean exits are:
1) BTC rallies to $65,265+ obligations covered
2) BTC rallies to $75,651+ cash cost covered
3) Buy back preferred at deep discount while it trades at $57–82 shrinks the liability side cheaply
4) USD reserve ($1.4B) buys 14 months of dividend runway at $1.2B/year so there’s no immediate crisis, but the clock is ticking
@Strategy @MicroStrategy @saylor @PeterSchiff @goldman @WSJ @AshCrypto @Bitcoin @BitcoinMagazine @BitcoinArchive @business #bitcoin #mstr #strategy #saylor @cz_binance @Reuters @ReutersBiz @CoinMarketCap @coinbase
@CryptoKaleo https://t.co/0WrsYuY5ky
What #Strategy Needs to Cover the Underwater Position
The Gap at $60,200 BTC
Total obligations cost/BTC: $65,265
Cash cost basis/BTC : $75,651
Current BTC price : $60,200
Gap vs obligations : −$5,065/BTC
Gap vs cash cost : −$15,451/BTC
Total deficit (obligations) : −$4.3B
Total deficit (cash cost) : −$13.1B
Options to Close the Gap
Option 1
BTC Price Recovers (Do Nothing)
Target BTC Price Needed to Cover total obligations : $65,265 (+8.4% from $60,200)
Cover cash cost basis : $75,651 (+25.7% from $60,200)
Cover cash + break even on preferred at par : ~$80,000+
This is the easiest path but relies entirely on BTC rallying while $1.2B/year in dividends keep burning cash.
Option 2 :
Dilute via ATM (Issue More Shares)
To raise $4.3B to cover the obligations gap:
# At MSTR $96.37 they need to issue 44.6M new shares (12.5% dilution on 358M shares)
# But this lowers BTC per share and further pressures MSTR stock
# STRC is trading at $81.71 vs $100 par preferred ATM is effectively broken at current prices
Option 3 :
Reduce Obligations (Buy Back Debt/Preferred)
# Already did this in May: repurchased $1.5B of 2029 convertible notes at a discount ($1.38B cash for $1.5B face)
# Could repeat buying back preferred at $81.71 (STRC), $57.55 (STRK), $58.85 (STRD) would retire obligations at 18–42% discount to par
# Retiring $1B notional of STRD at $58.85 costs only $589M instant $411M gain on obligations
This is the highest ROI move right now
Option 4 :
Sell Bitcoin (Nuclear Option)
To raise $4.3B by selling BTC at $60,200
# Would need to sell ~71,430 BTC (8.4% of holdings)
This would crater BTC price further given Strategy is ~4% of supply
#Saylor has called selling BTC a last resort. CEO already sold a small amount in June as a “process test”
# Each BTC sold also reduces the treasury that backs all obligations
Option 5 :
Lower the Average Cost (Keep Buying)
If Strategy buys more BTC below its current $75,651 average:
BTC Bought at $60,200
New Average Cost for
1) 50,000 BTC ($3B) $74,000
2) 100,000 BTC ($6B) $72,500
3) 200,000 BTC ($12B) $69,800
This lowers the cash average but requires raising more capital which is hard when MSTR is down and STRC is broken below par.
The Core Dilemma
BTC falls → STRC falls below $100 par → Can't raise cheap preferred capital
→ Must use MSTR ATM (dilutive)
→ MSTR falls further
→ BTC per share drop→ Preferred looks riskier
→ Cycle repeats
The only clean exits are:
1) BTC rallies to $65,265+ obligations covered
2) BTC rallies to $75,651+ cash cost covered
3) Buy back preferred at deep discount while it trades at $57–82 shrinks the liability side cheaply
4) USD reserve ($1.4B) buys 14 months of dividend runway at $1.2B/year so there’s no immediate crisis, but the clock is ticking
@Strategy @MicroStrategy @saylor @PeterSchiff @goldman @WSJ @AshCrypto @Bitcoin @BitcoinMagazine @BitcoinArchive @business #bitcoin #mstr #strategy #saylor @cz_binance @Reuters @ReutersBiz @CoinMarketCap @coinbase
What #Strategy Needs to Cover the Underwater Position
The Gap at $60,200 BTC
Total obligations cost/BTC: $65,265
Cash cost basis/BTC : $75,651
Current BTC price : $60,200
Gap vs obligations : −$5,065/BTC
Gap vs cash cost : −$15,451/BTC
Total deficit (obligations) : −$4.3B
Total deficit (cash cost) : −$13.1B
Options to Close the Gap
Option 1
BTC Price Recovers (Do Nothing)
Target BTC Price Needed to Cover total obligations : $65,265 (+8.4% from $60,200)
Cover cash cost basis : $75,651 (+25.7% from $60,200)
Cover cash + break even on preferred at par : ~$80,000+
This is the easiest path but relies entirely on BTC rallying while $1.2B/year in dividends keep burning cash.
Option 2 :
Dilute via ATM (Issue More Shares)
To raise $4.3B to cover the obligations gap:
# At MSTR $96.37 they need to issue 44.6M new shares (12.5% dilution on 358M shares)
# But this lowers BTC per share and further pressures MSTR stock
# STRC is trading at $81.71 vs $100 par preferred ATM is effectively broken at current prices
Option 3 :
Reduce Obligations (Buy Back Debt/Preferred)
# Already did this in May: repurchased $1.5B of 2029 convertible notes at a discount ($1.38B cash for $1.5B face)
# Could repeat buying back preferred at $81.71 (STRC), $57.55 (STRK), $58.85 (STRD) would retire obligations at 18–42% discount to par
# Retiring $1B notional of STRD at $58.85 costs only $589M instant $411M gain on obligations
This is the highest ROI move right now
Option 4 :
Sell Bitcoin (Nuclear Option)
To raise $4.3B by selling BTC at $60,200
# Would need to sell ~71,430 BTC (8.4% of holdings)
This would crater BTC price further given Strategy is ~4% of supply
#Saylor has called selling BTC a last resort. CEO already sold a small amount in June as a “process test”
# Each BTC sold also reduces the treasury that backs all obligations
Option 5 :
Lower the Average Cost (Keep Buying)
If Strategy buys more BTC below its current $75,651 average:
BTC Bought at $60,200
New Average Cost for
1) 50,000 BTC ($3B) $74,000
2) 100,000 BTC ($6B) $72,500
3) 200,000 BTC ($12B) $69,800
This lowers the cash average but requires raising more capital which is hard when MSTR is down and STRC is broken below par.
The Core Dilemma
BTC falls → STRC falls below $100 par → Can't raise cheap preferred capital
→ Must use MSTR ATM (dilutive)
→ MSTR falls further
→ BTC per share drop→ Preferred looks riskier
→ Cycle repeats
The only clean exits are:
1) BTC rallies to $65,265+ obligations covered
2) BTC rallies to $75,651+ cash cost covered
3) Buy back preferred at deep discount while it trades at $57–82 shrinks the liability side cheaply
4) USD reserve ($1.4B) buys 14 months of dividend runway at $1.2B/year so there’s no immediate crisis, but the clock is ticking
@Strategy @MicroStrategy @saylor @PeterSchiff @goldman @WSJ @AshCrypto @Bitcoin @BitcoinMagazine @BitcoinArchive @business #bitcoin #mstr #strategy #saylor @cz_binance @Reuters @ReutersBiz @CoinMarketCap @coinbase
@Wealth_Theory https://t.co/0WrsYuY5ky
What #Strategy Needs to Cover the Underwater Position
The Gap at $60,200 BTC
Total obligations cost/BTC: $65,265
Cash cost basis/BTC : $75,651
Current BTC price : $60,200
Gap vs obligations : −$5,065/BTC
Gap vs cash cost : −$15,451/BTC
Total deficit (obligations) : −$4.3B
Total deficit (cash cost) : −$13.1B
Options to Close the Gap
Option 1
BTC Price Recovers (Do Nothing)
Target BTC Price Needed to Cover total obligations : $65,265 (+8.4% from $60,200)
Cover cash cost basis : $75,651 (+25.7% from $60,200)
Cover cash + break even on preferred at par : ~$80,000+
This is the easiest path but relies entirely on BTC rallying while $1.2B/year in dividends keep burning cash.
Option 2 :
Dilute via ATM (Issue More Shares)
To raise $4.3B to cover the obligations gap:
# At MSTR $96.37 they need to issue 44.6M new shares (12.5% dilution on 358M shares)
# But this lowers BTC per share and further pressures MSTR stock
# STRC is trading at $81.71 vs $100 par preferred ATM is effectively broken at current prices
Option 3 :
Reduce Obligations (Buy Back Debt/Preferred)
# Already did this in May: repurchased $1.5B of 2029 convertible notes at a discount ($1.38B cash for $1.5B face)
# Could repeat buying back preferred at $81.71 (STRC), $57.55 (STRK), $58.85 (STRD) would retire obligations at 18–42% discount to par
# Retiring $1B notional of STRD at $58.85 costs only $589M instant $411M gain on obligations
This is the highest ROI move right now
Option 4 :
Sell Bitcoin (Nuclear Option)
To raise $4.3B by selling BTC at $60,200
# Would need to sell ~71,430 BTC (8.4% of holdings)
This would crater BTC price further given Strategy is ~4% of supply
#Saylor has called selling BTC a last resort. CEO already sold a small amount in June as a “process test”
# Each BTC sold also reduces the treasury that backs all obligations
Option 5 :
Lower the Average Cost (Keep Buying)
If Strategy buys more BTC below its current $75,651 average:
BTC Bought at $60,200
New Average Cost for
1) 50,000 BTC ($3B) $74,000
2) 100,000 BTC ($6B) $72,500
3) 200,000 BTC ($12B) $69,800
This lowers the cash average but requires raising more capital which is hard when MSTR is down and STRC is broken below par.
The Core Dilemma
BTC falls → STRC falls below $100 par → Can't raise cheap preferred capital
→ Must use MSTR ATM (dilutive)
→ MSTR falls further
→ BTC per share drop→ Preferred looks riskier
→ Cycle repeats
The only clean exits are:
1) BTC rallies to $65,265+ obligations covered
2) BTC rallies to $75,651+ cash cost covered
3) Buy back preferred at deep discount while it trades at $57–82 shrinks the liability side cheaply
4) USD reserve ($1.4B) buys 14 months of dividend runway at $1.2B/year so there’s no immediate crisis, but the clock is ticking
@Strategy @MicroStrategy @saylor @PeterSchiff @goldman @WSJ @AshCrypto @Bitcoin @BitcoinMagazine @BitcoinArchive @business #bitcoin #mstr #strategy #saylor @cz_binance @Reuters @ReutersBiz @CoinMarketCap @coinbase
@PeterSchiff https://t.co/0WrsYuY5ky
What #Strategy Needs to Cover the Underwater Position
The Gap at $60,200 BTC
Total obligations cost/BTC: $65,265
Cash cost basis/BTC : $75,651
Current BTC price : $60,200
Gap vs obligations : −$5,065/BTC
Gap vs cash cost : −$15,451/BTC
Total deficit (obligations) : −$4.3B
Total deficit (cash cost) : −$13.1B
Options to Close the Gap
Option 1
BTC Price Recovers (Do Nothing)
Target BTC Price Needed to Cover total obligations : $65,265 (+8.4% from $60,200)
Cover cash cost basis : $75,651 (+25.7% from $60,200)
Cover cash + break even on preferred at par : ~$80,000+
This is the easiest path but relies entirely on BTC rallying while $1.2B/year in dividends keep burning cash.
Option 2 :
Dilute via ATM (Issue More Shares)
To raise $4.3B to cover the obligations gap:
# At MSTR $96.37 they need to issue 44.6M new shares (12.5% dilution on 358M shares)
# But this lowers BTC per share and further pressures MSTR stock
# STRC is trading at $81.71 vs $100 par preferred ATM is effectively broken at current prices
Option 3 :
Reduce Obligations (Buy Back Debt/Preferred)
# Already did this in May: repurchased $1.5B of 2029 convertible notes at a discount ($1.38B cash for $1.5B face)
# Could repeat buying back preferred at $81.71 (STRC), $57.55 (STRK), $58.85 (STRD) would retire obligations at 18–42% discount to par
# Retiring $1B notional of STRD at $58.85 costs only $589M instant $411M gain on obligations
This is the highest ROI move right now
Option 4 :
Sell Bitcoin (Nuclear Option)
To raise $4.3B by selling BTC at $60,200
# Would need to sell ~71,430 BTC (8.4% of holdings)
This would crater BTC price further given Strategy is ~4% of supply
#Saylor has called selling BTC a last resort. CEO already sold a small amount in June as a “process test”
# Each BTC sold also reduces the treasury that backs all obligations
Option 5 :
Lower the Average Cost (Keep Buying)
If Strategy buys more BTC below its current $75,651 average:
BTC Bought at $60,200
New Average Cost for
1) 50,000 BTC ($3B) $74,000
2) 100,000 BTC ($6B) $72,500
3) 200,000 BTC ($12B) $69,800
This lowers the cash average but requires raising more capital which is hard when MSTR is down and STRC is broken below par.
The Core Dilemma
BTC falls → STRC falls below $100 par → Can't raise cheap preferred capital
→ Must use MSTR ATM (dilutive)
→ MSTR falls further
→ BTC per share drop→ Preferred looks riskier
→ Cycle repeats
The only clean exits are:
1) BTC rallies to $65,265+ obligations covered
2) BTC rallies to $75,651+ cash cost covered
3) Buy back preferred at deep discount while it trades at $57–82 shrinks the liability side cheaply
4) USD reserve ($1.4B) buys 14 months of dividend runway at $1.2B/year so there’s no immediate crisis, but the clock is ticking
@Strategy @MicroStrategy @saylor @PeterSchiff @goldman @WSJ @AshCrypto @Bitcoin @BitcoinMagazine @BitcoinArchive @business #bitcoin #mstr #strategy #saylor @cz_binance @Reuters @ReutersBiz @CoinMarketCap @coinbase
@AdamBLiv https://t.co/0WrsYuY5ky
What #Strategy Needs to Cover the Underwater Position
The Gap at $60,200 BTC
Total obligations cost/BTC: $65,265
Cash cost basis/BTC : $75,651
Current BTC price : $60,200
Gap vs obligations : −$5,065/BTC
Gap vs cash cost : −$15,451/BTC
Total deficit (obligations) : −$4.3B
Total deficit (cash cost) : −$13.1B
Options to Close the Gap
Option 1
BTC Price Recovers (Do Nothing)
Target BTC Price Needed to Cover total obligations : $65,265 (+8.4% from $60,200)
Cover cash cost basis : $75,651 (+25.7% from $60,200)
Cover cash + break even on preferred at par : ~$80,000+
This is the easiest path but relies entirely on BTC rallying while $1.2B/year in dividends keep burning cash.
Option 2 :
Dilute via ATM (Issue More Shares)
To raise $4.3B to cover the obligations gap:
# At MSTR $96.37 they need to issue 44.6M new shares (12.5% dilution on 358M shares)
# But this lowers BTC per share and further pressures MSTR stock
# STRC is trading at $81.71 vs $100 par preferred ATM is effectively broken at current prices
Option 3 :
Reduce Obligations (Buy Back Debt/Preferred)
# Already did this in May: repurchased $1.5B of 2029 convertible notes at a discount ($1.38B cash for $1.5B face)
# Could repeat buying back preferred at $81.71 (STRC), $57.55 (STRK), $58.85 (STRD) would retire obligations at 18–42% discount to par
# Retiring $1B notional of STRD at $58.85 costs only $589M instant $411M gain on obligations
This is the highest ROI move right now
Option 4 :
Sell Bitcoin (Nuclear Option)
To raise $4.3B by selling BTC at $60,200
# Would need to sell ~71,430 BTC (8.4% of holdings)
This would crater BTC price further given Strategy is ~4% of supply
#Saylor has called selling BTC a last resort. CEO already sold a small amount in June as a “process test”
# Each BTC sold also reduces the treasury that backs all obligations
Option 5 :
Lower the Average Cost (Keep Buying)
If Strategy buys more BTC below its current $75,651 average:
BTC Bought at $60,200
New Average Cost for
1) 50,000 BTC ($3B) $74,000
2) 100,000 BTC ($6B) $72,500
3) 200,000 BTC ($12B) $69,800
This lowers the cash average but requires raising more capital which is hard when MSTR is down and STRC is broken below par.
The Core Dilemma
BTC falls → STRC falls below $100 par → Can't raise cheap preferred capital
→ Must use MSTR ATM (dilutive)
→ MSTR falls further
→ BTC per share drop→ Preferred looks riskier
→ Cycle repeats
The only clean exits are:
1) BTC rallies to $65,265+ obligations covered
2) BTC rallies to $75,651+ cash cost covered
3) Buy back preferred at deep discount while it trades at $57–82 shrinks the liability side cheaply
4) USD reserve ($1.4B) buys 14 months of dividend runway at $1.2B/year so there’s no immediate crisis, but the clock is ticking
@Strategy @MicroStrategy @saylor @PeterSchiff @goldman @WSJ @AshCrypto @Bitcoin @BitcoinMagazine @BitcoinArchive @business #bitcoin #mstr #strategy #saylor @cz_binance @Reuters @ReutersBiz @CoinMarketCap @coinbase
@TheBTCTherapist https://t.co/0WrsYuY5ky
What #Strategy Needs to Cover the Underwater Position
The Gap at $60,200 BTC
Total obligations cost/BTC: $65,265
Cash cost basis/BTC : $75,651
Current BTC price : $60,200
Gap vs obligations : −$5,065/BTC
Gap vs cash cost : −$15,451/BTC
Total deficit (obligations) : −$4.3B
Total deficit (cash cost) : −$13.1B
Options to Close the Gap
Option 1
BTC Price Recovers (Do Nothing)
Target BTC Price Needed to Cover total obligations : $65,265 (+8.4% from $60,200)
Cover cash cost basis : $75,651 (+25.7% from $60,200)
Cover cash + break even on preferred at par : ~$80,000+
This is the easiest path but relies entirely on BTC rallying while $1.2B/year in dividends keep burning cash.
Option 2 :
Dilute via ATM (Issue More Shares)
To raise $4.3B to cover the obligations gap:
# At MSTR $96.37 they need to issue 44.6M new shares (12.5% dilution on 358M shares)
# But this lowers BTC per share and further pressures MSTR stock
# STRC is trading at $81.71 vs $100 par preferred ATM is effectively broken at current prices
Option 3 :
Reduce Obligations (Buy Back Debt/Preferred)
# Already did this in May: repurchased $1.5B of 2029 convertible notes at a discount ($1.38B cash for $1.5B face)
# Could repeat buying back preferred at $81.71 (STRC), $57.55 (STRK), $58.85 (STRD) would retire obligations at 18–42% discount to par
# Retiring $1B notional of STRD at $58.85 costs only $589M instant $411M gain on obligations
This is the highest ROI move right now
Option 4 :
Sell Bitcoin (Nuclear Option)
To raise $4.3B by selling BTC at $60,200
# Would need to sell ~71,430 BTC (8.4% of holdings)
This would crater BTC price further given Strategy is ~4% of supply
#Saylor has called selling BTC a last resort. CEO already sold a small amount in June as a “process test”
# Each BTC sold also reduces the treasury that backs all obligations
Option 5 :
Lower the Average Cost (Keep Buying)
If Strategy buys more BTC below its current $75,651 average:
BTC Bought at $60,200
New Average Cost for
1) 50,000 BTC ($3B) $74,000
2) 100,000 BTC ($6B) $72,500
3) 200,000 BTC ($12B) $69,800
This lowers the cash average but requires raising more capital which is hard when MSTR is down and STRC is broken below par.
The Core Dilemma
BTC falls → STRC falls below $100 par → Can't raise cheap preferred capital
→ Must use MSTR ATM (dilutive)
→ MSTR falls further
→ BTC per share drop→ Preferred looks riskier
→ Cycle repeats
The only clean exits are:
1) BTC rallies to $65,265+ obligations covered
2) BTC rallies to $75,651+ cash cost covered
3) Buy back preferred at deep discount while it trades at $57–82 shrinks the liability side cheaply
4) USD reserve ($1.4B) buys 14 months of dividend runway at $1.2B/year so there’s no immediate crisis, but the clock is ticking
@Strategy @MicroStrategy @saylor @PeterSchiff @goldman @WSJ @AshCrypto @Bitcoin @BitcoinMagazine @BitcoinArchive @business #bitcoin #mstr #strategy #saylor @cz_binance @Reuters @ReutersBiz @CoinMarketCap @coinbase
What #Strategy Needs to Cover the Underwater Position
The Gap at $60,200 BTC
Total obligations cost/BTC: $65,265
Cash cost basis/BTC : $75,651
Current BTC price : $60,200
Gap vs obligations : −$5,065/BTC
Gap vs cash cost : −$15,451/BTC
Total deficit (obligations) : −$4.3B
Total deficit (cash cost) : −$13.1B
Options to Close the Gap
Option 1
BTC Price Recovers (Do Nothing)
Target BTC Price Needed to Cover total obligations : $65,265 (+8.4% from $60,200)
Cover cash cost basis : $75,651 (+25.7% from $60,200)
Cover cash + break even on preferred at par : ~$80,000+
This is the easiest path but relies entirely on BTC rallying while $1.2B/year in dividends keep burning cash.
Option 2 :
Dilute via ATM (Issue More Shares)
To raise $4.3B to cover the obligations gap:
# At MSTR $96.37 they need to issue 44.6M new shares (12.5% dilution on 358M shares)
# But this lowers BTC per share and further pressures MSTR stock
# STRC is trading at $81.71 vs $100 par preferred ATM is effectively broken at current prices
Option 3 :
Reduce Obligations (Buy Back Debt/Preferred)
# Already did this in May: repurchased $1.5B of 2029 convertible notes at a discount ($1.38B cash for $1.5B face)
# Could repeat buying back preferred at $81.71 (STRC), $57.55 (STRK), $58.85 (STRD) would retire obligations at 18–42% discount to par
# Retiring $1B notional of STRD at $58.85 costs only $589M instant $411M gain on obligations
This is the highest ROI move right now
Option 4 :
Sell Bitcoin (Nuclear Option)
To raise $4.3B by selling BTC at $60,200
# Would need to sell ~71,430 BTC (8.4% of holdings)
This would crater BTC price further given Strategy is ~4% of supply
#Saylor has called selling BTC a last resort. CEO already sold a small amount in June as a “process test”
# Each BTC sold also reduces the treasury that backs all obligations
Option 5 :
Lower the Average Cost (Keep Buying)
If Strategy buys more BTC below its current $75,651 average:
BTC Bought at $60,200
New Average Cost for
1) 50,000 BTC ($3B) $74,000
2) 100,000 BTC ($6B) $72,500
3) 200,000 BTC ($12B) $69,800
This lowers the cash average but requires raising more capital which is hard when MSTR is down and STRC is broken below par.
The Core Dilemma
BTC falls → STRC falls below $100 par → Can't raise cheap preferred capital
→ Must use MSTR ATM (dilutive)
→ MSTR falls further
→ BTC per share drop→ Preferred looks riskier
→ Cycle repeats
The only clean exits are:
1) BTC rallies to $65,265+ obligations covered
2) BTC rallies to $75,651+ cash cost covered
3) Buy back preferred at deep discount while it trades at $57–82 shrinks the liability side cheaply
4) USD reserve ($1.4B) buys 14 months of dividend runway at $1.2B/year so there’s no immediate crisis, but the clock is ticking
@Strategy @MicroStrategy @saylor @PeterSchiff @goldman @WSJ @AshCrypto @Bitcoin @BitcoinMagazine @BitcoinArchive @business #bitcoin #mstr #strategy #saylor @cz_binance @Reuters @ReutersBiz @CoinMarketCap @coinbase
“Umar itni hai ki Main utna ji nahi paunga, jitna ji chuka hoon” - Akhilesh Yadav
Bro did some deep talk casually
🫡
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