financebully

All in on #biotech, #fintech, and #crypto!

[financebully @financebully]

@f8434784752 in addition, i thought the comment at the end about their in vivo car-t program was very exciting. most in vivo car-t companies (many of which have recently been acquired) are still private so there hasn't been an ability for retail to invest in them. $acet

[financebully @financebully]

@DmitryKovalchuk thanks for sharing. the high-dose durability (10.5+ mo tnbc, 7.5+ mo hl, both active) further validates the cleavage moa. i look forward to seeing the 3 and 10mg expansion data in q4 - could be a big catalyst.

[financebully @financebully]

@a_a_free @thecellengineer @Lord_of_Biotech i think we're both looking at two separate big pictures. my big picture is 'does it make sense to invest in a $7b fdmc with a moderate pys estimate of $2b.'

yes, a small company can win rare disease, but much more difficult with a big pharma competitor already entrenched.

[financebully @financebully]

@Archimedes20311 @jawnzilla @mickeychiku acquirers don't primarily look at doc surveys—this is actually pretty low on the list of consideration. m&a due diligence focuses on hard structural realities: fda review precedents, payer/formulary restrictions, and mechanistic toxicology.

[financebully @financebully]

@Drchik23 celc was raising into strength, based on their data. abvx would've been raising with less leverage, but this could quickly change with additional updates.

[financebully @financebully]

@DmitryKovalchuk before readout, i had calculated a bo valuation of $15-20b (~$200/sh+). after readout, bo value is unclear because assumptions will evolve over the next few months (regulatory, company updates, etc). i'm not sure about acq more likely than before - it will be predatory now.

[financebully @financebully]

smart $celc management move:
-$500m upsized raise on heavy institutional demand
-40% conversion premium locked at $124/sh
-super low 0.25% annual interest rate

wipes out toxic bank debt, fully funds the 1l trial/2l launch, and increases bo leverage.

https://t.co/hvv9CCWhsc

[financebully @financebully]

@phoenicianstrat @thecellengineer @a_a_free @Lord_of_Biotech highly aggressive and likely unrealistic. you should really do your own deep diligence on the numbers and assumptions.

[financebully @financebully]

@a_a_free @thecellengineer @Lord_of_Biotech i get that you're bullish, but you really have to understand the challenge of the rare disease market as a small company.

[financebully @financebully]

@phoenicianstrat @thecellengineer @a_a_free @Lord_of_Biotech fdmc was ~$7.5 at $36 when i wrote my initial post a few days ago. you're missing options/notes shares in your figure. let's say ~200m fully diluted share count = $6.5b at $32. better, but still on the high side (as investment) relative to realistic pys of $2b (still generous).

[financebully @financebully]

@thecellengineer @a_a_free @phoenicianstrat @Lord_of_Biotech bezu is a good drug, but the "nasty side effects" narrative ignores the ~95% long-term stability on ayvakit. the addressable switch pool is smaller than bulls think. at a $7b fdmc, you are already pricing in a flawless blockbuster launch that ignores real-world commercial walls.

[financebully @financebully]

@thecellengineer @a_a_free @Lord_of_Biotech this isn't a question about molecule clinical superiority (for now) - i agree that bezu is a good molecule compared to soc. i question whether the bull case is already priced in to valuation relative to pys potential. at $7b, i believe the upside is minimal or non existent.

[financebully @financebully]

@Driller562 @FidelisAurelius @a_a_free i'm very up-to-date. 😂 1. the zovega/atirmo/AI 1l trial has not started - likelihood of completion in 2030+. a double branded premium-priced triplet will be commercially difficult to justify. 2. my original comment still stands re: zovega doublet 2028/29 launch in 2l.

[financebully @financebully]

@Driller562 @FidelisAurelius @a_a_free i believe zovega will have a much more difficult 2l ph3 and commercial journey. 1. comparator has changed to capivasertib (not apelisib) increasing safety/efficacy bar. 2. if $celc geda hits in 1l setting, mutant selective 2l+ options will take a huge hit (regardless of roa).

[financebully @financebully]

@jeromeleonard5 i think $idya likely had more leverage with roche vs rvmd, given stage of assets. but $rhhby certainly has more resources to support a future late stage trial and commercial rollout.

one thing to note re: rg6505 is exclusion of pts taking ppi/h2 blockers. https://t.co/NVOj2z32f1

[financebully @financebully]

@BiotechObserver take analyst notes with a grain of salt. it's as if this leerink analyst is new to oncology trials and how data usually degrade from ph1 to ph3. in any case, the $150-160 (near term) target is believable, but the company is likely worth ~$15b ($220/sh) to an acquirer today.

[financebully @financebully]

@Banana_Oncology 8 malignancies. ;)

[financebully @financebully]

$arvn re(de)prioritizing their g12d kras asset (arv-806). i guess this is probably for the best, given the likelihood for low/no differentiation (or worse) compared to inhibitors. arvinas investors can't catch a break.
https://t.co/iALJfAsrst