Finding Value Finance

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[DeepValue Signals @DVSignals]

$XLE / $GDX | A Major Rotation Underway? 👀

#Energy equities massively outperformed #gold miners between 2020 and 2022.

After bottoming in early 2026, the ratio has been recovering and now appears to be breaking out of a multi-year descending channel.

Interestingly, the previous major relative high dates back to 2014-15.

A sustained breakout could eventually open the door to another ~2.5-3x relative outperformance of energy versus gold miners.

And remember, both sectors can rise simultaneously. It simply means energy equities could rise substantially faster.

Potentially a major capital rotation in the making...

[Cycle Investment Strategy @cycle_strategy]

Also, US #oil production has not yet responded to the price spike. Despite (supposedly) high prices, the current level is not yet incentivizing an expansion of US output.

[David Burrows @barometerca]

Yesterday felt bad for Latam equities but did little to change the big picture.

Financials, energy and materials may outweight the politics.

$ILF

[Elliott Wave International @elliottwaveintl]

🚨 A handful of high-profile tech stocks are driving the market, creating the narrowest concentration in at least 35 years. Normal range is closer to 45-50%.

[Macro Liquidity by Sunil Reddy @Macrobysunil]

Oil prices are gradually repricing higher while oil volatility continues to coil.

Strikes on Iran appear imminent.

The moment oil volatility starts breaking higher, expect the gradual repricing to turn vertical, triggering an aggressive short squeeze.

The explosive phase of this move is still ahead of us.

[Axis Balance @Axis_Balance]

🇧🇷 Brazil vs. S&P 500 — The Great Rotation Setup

$EWZ / $SPX has broken above its secular resistance trendline dating back to 2009.

But Brazil still needs to reclaim the 4-year EMA and break above 0.0059 to confirm a sustained shift in relative strength.

One breakout is a start. Three technical barriers need to be cleared.

Will Brazil finally outperform U.S. equities in the next commodities bull market?

[SmartRealEstateBets @EstateBets1135]

Never bet against demographics

Ever.

[Investment Wisdom @InvestingCanons]

The most dangerous trade is the one that wins despite a bad process. You credit your skill, but you owe Lady Luck.

[Logan Mohtashami @LoganMohtashami]

Same story for the past 10 years: new home sales haven't grown or declined much, aside from the COVID sales burst and the subsequent decline from that peak.

[Finding Value Finance @finding_finance]

RT @RockBtmEntries: Uranium stocks are ripe.

[Patrick Karim @badcharts1]

There will ALWAYS be a million reasons why crude oil can't go higher.

But if my EPIC breakout triggers, I'll be looking UP, not listening to the endless stream of bearish headlines.

Trust the chart. The upside could be massive.

[Northstar @NorthstarCharts]

Mild panic?

[Jeffrey Currie 🆔++ @CommodMkt]

Higher for longer - that was the core message in my discussion with @CNBC Squawk Box Europe this morning.

Everyone is focused on the spot price of oil. But look further out: calendar 2027 Brent is holding around $97 a barrel. That’s close to $100 priced in for an entire year, not simply a short-term spike. That has implications for everything from industrial and agriculture production to transportation costs and inflation in the months ahead.

Now look at energy equities. The Munificent 7 are hitting all-time highs as the back end of the oil curve approaches $100. This is looking increasingly structural, not transient. It's the Revenge of the Old Economy in action.

The old economy is short-duration, asset-heavy and benefiting from higher commodity prices, whereas the new economy is long-duration, asset-light and increasingly exposed to higher interest rates and inflation.

The irony in all this is that the old economy is fuelling the new economy. AI needs electricity, transformers, copper, high-voltage cables and critical minerals. None of that exists without the physical world.

‘Generalists’ in the market are beginning to recognise what specialists across the physical economy has been telling us for some time: higher for longer isn't just centred on bottlenecks and disruption to the flow of hydrocarbons out of the Strait of Hormuz. Instead, it’s a structural shift that is likely here to stay.

We’re electrifying the world for many reasons, chief among them the so-called energy transition. The original driving force of the transition, led by the Carter administration, wasn’t the need to adopt clean energy with climate change in mind; it was driven by an urgent need for energy security in response to the oil shocks of the 1970s.

We’re seeing a repeat today: the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz and bottlenecks elsewhere, impacting our ability to source and transport hydrocarbons, is forcing states to turn to electrification.

Great discussion with @cnbcKaren and Steve Sedgwick - thank you for having me on.

[Fthegurus @fthegurus]

Sad reality of most Silver investors.

[Dividendology @dividendology]

The top marginal state income tax rates by state:

Would you move to another state to lower your tax bill?

[Giovanni Staunovo🛢 @staunovo]

EU natural gas inventories in % of full - EU at 74.62%

Germany at 61.48%, Italy at 90.02%, France at 87.17%, Netherlands at 65.24%, Austria at 67.19%, Spain at 79.26% https://t.co/ynVKPpos0p

[HealthRanger @HealthRanger]

There is virtually no sulfur coming out of the Persian Gulf. The world's above-ground sulfur supply is dwindling as a result (Canada has massive stockpiles but they are not infinite).

Without sulfur, you can't make rubber tires for cares because sulfur is the critical element in VULCANIZATION which does not refer to Spock from planet Vulcan, but rather the process by which liquid rubber is formed into a stiff, durable polymer with tough chemical cross-links. This makes rubber (a latex liquid from trees) turn into tires, essentially.

No sulfur = no tires.

No tires = total global collapse of industry and transportation and farming, and so on. Mass global collapse of human civilization at nearly an Extinction Level Event scale.

The Persian Gulf isn't the only place to get sulfur (Venezuela is another), but it's the primary source and it has been almost completely cut off.

I'll have a full video analysis on this subject tomorrow.

[Heinrich Leopold @LeopoldHeinrich]

From Feb to Oct European #natgas has tripled (+200%) from 30 to 93 Eur per MWh. A fantastic trade, which can easily match the AI trade. And it is not over yet.

[Investment Wisdom @InvestingCanons]

"Extreme patience combined with extreme decisiveness. You may call that our investment process. Yes, it's that simple."

— Charlie Munger

[Macro Liquidity by Sunil Reddy @Macrobysunil]

Oil/S&P 500 ratio is Set for a major breakout in the daily chart.

After breaking out against gold and silver, oil now looks ready to outperform equities too.

The rounding structure is nearing completion, and a confirmed breakout will trigger a powerful move higher.

I believe oil is very likely to outperform equities with significant force in the coming weeks.

The relative strength rotation into oil is becoming increasingly difficult to ignore.