Fine Analysis

Political data science & electoral analytics, with frequent forays into the prediction markets. Honest analysis of hard questions.

[Fine Analysis @fineanalysis]

Prediction markets barely moved after Callais — here's why:

https://t.co/8F8YkjFdiI

@Kalshi @KalshiPolitics

[Fine Analysis @fineanalysis]

@GoodmanMike2 @gelliottmorris *A singular poll

[Fine Analysis @fineanalysis]

@ChrisCillizza Kalshi disagrees - though not by much

[Fine Analysis @fineanalysis]

@IAPolls2022 The GB this cycle really has been pretty different from 2018. (Very) slow and steady gains for Democrats.

[Fine Analysis @fineanalysis]

@ChrisCillizza Why reduce uncertainty when you can handwave and speculate? /s

[Fine Analysis @fineanalysis]

@Fat_DTEA I'd still be pretty nervous about the polling averages. For Dems to only be up 7 with Trump 20 points underwater is not a good sign for the brand, and could spell problems for 2028 if something doesn't change.

[Fine Analysis @fineanalysis]

@USA_Polling Looking at this poll, my first thought was, "Not bad for Trump!"

That should indicate just how bad his polling has been the last few weeks.

[Fine Analysis @fineanalysis]

@ChrisCillizza Well, outside of the Georgia Supreme Court races, that is.

Though I guess you could take that as further evidence of your case, considering a main reason Rs won there is because they did not have to label themselves as such.

[Fine Analysis @fineanalysis]

@Polit_eurOpines "In the bag" seems a bit strong of a conclusion when neither candidate is crossing 40%. Plenty of tactical voting still to be done.

[Fine Analysis @fineanalysis]

@CheesyBulgari @baseballot Sorry, to be clear - I'm saying the fact it wasn't a special election wasn't so significant.

[Fine Analysis @fineanalysis]

@DenverBob2 @baseballot The candidates for senate actually have their political party listed next to their names.

[Fine Analysis @fineanalysis]

And handicappers like Sabato's Crystal Ball seem to further disagree with Murkowski.

https://t.co/sxD71J54ZW

[Kyle Kondik @kkondik]

when/if Paxton wins the primary next week, the Crystal Ball will move the Texas Senate race from Likely Republican to Leans Republican

[Fine Analysis @fineanalysis]

It's not a question that Trump's decision to endorse Paxton hurt GOP chances of winning in Texas. Republican Senators aren't wrong to be upset with him.

But to say that TX is "all but lost" to Dems, as Murkowski did, simply isn't a factual statement. The race is still a toss-up.

[Andrew Desiderio @AndrewDesiderio]

Senate Republicans are livid with Trump. Just now, Sen. Wicker remained stone-faced (appeared to be intentional) for about 20 seconds as he walked into lunch and we asked him for his reaction

Sen. Murkowski says TX is all but lost to Dems now

[Fine Analysis @fineanalysis]

@DecisionDeskHQ Accordingly, James Talarico is now slightly favored on @Kalshi

[Fine Analysis @fineanalysis]

@ChrisCillizza Yeah, look, if the *average* is getting to D+11 territory, I'd scale back my claim significantly. But we've been seeing a smattering of D+10 or more polls throughout the last month, while the average still hasn't crossed D+7.

[Fine Analysis @fineanalysis]

@Stroonzy1 @ChrisCillizza @NateSilver538 's polling averages are garbage data?

But fair on the title, a roughly net 8% drop isn't really "cratering". I'll change it next time.

[Fine Analysis @fineanalysis]

@ChrisCillizza It definitely isn't fully translating over at the moment

[Fine Analysis @fineanalysis]

A quick update: unfortunately for Democrats, this trend is still holding.

[Fine Analysis @fineanalysis]

And zoomed in on 2026 specifically, the generic ballot seems even more stubborn.

[Fine Analysis @fineanalysis]

@_fat_ugly_rat_ So why *is* Louisiana so much less R in primary composition?