Nathaniel Rakich

Managing editor @VotebeatUS. Previously senior editor and senior elections analyst @FiveThirtyEight. Email, don't DM: nrakich at votebeat dot org

[Nathaniel Rakich @baseballot]

Sad story out of Wisconsin Rapids, WI, whose city clerk died on Election Day after working to pull off a smooth election right until the end. https://t.co/rXAe5hX8M2

[cinyc @cinyc9]

We have new Alaska results (but not new precinct or CVR files yet, best I can tell).

Peltola's lead increases to 49.0-47.2%; Begich is on 48.9% to Hill's 41.0%.

[Nathaniel Rakich @baseballot]

Remember that you don’t call a race when you’re 95% sure about who’s going to win. You call it when you’re 100% sure.

[Eric Stone @eriwinsto]

One thing to keep in mind as we wait for this evening's major count update: folks at @ak_elections are working 12-hour days, seven days a week right now. The Division of Elections' operations manager said as much under oath in a court filing yesterday.
#akleg #aksen

[Nathaniel Rakich @baseballot]

@ZacharyDonnini A late bloomer! 😛

[Nathaniel Rakich @baseballot]

@grace_panetta @JessicaHuseman Unsubscribe!!

[VoteHub @VoteHub]

🚨 LEAD FLIP IN NC-03: Smith takes the lead!

735 new votes from Pitt County:
🔵 Smith: +507 (69.0%)
🔴 Murphy: +211 (28.7%)
⚪ Cavender: +17 (2.3%)

Smith nets 296 votes, turning Murphy's 41-vote lead into a 255-vote Democratic advantage.

[Joe Bruno @JoeBrunoWSOC9]

Guilford County just posted provisionals and Chuck Hubbard (D) is once again ahead of Rep. Virginia Foxx (R). His lead is 196 votes. Rockingham and Watauga remain. #NC05 #ncpol

[Bryan Anderson @BryanRAnderson]

JUST IN: Rep. Virginia Foxx has just overtaken Democratic challenger, now leads Chuck Hubbard by 33 votes. #ncpol #NC05

[Votebeat @VotebeatUS]

🗓️ IN ONE HOUR: Join @JessicaHuseman to debrief the midterms with two leading election attorneys: Ben Ginsberg, former attorney for the Bush and Romney campaigns, and Bob Bauer, former Obama White House counsel.

RSVP below ⬇️

[Max @maxtmcc]

Can I formally request the NYT add this feature permanently to all races? I cannot emphasize enough how useful it is

[Nathaniel Rakich @baseballot]

(You can subscribe to my Google Calendar of Obscure Elections here: https://t.co/X8a2LPnInF)

[Nathaniel Rakich @baseballot]

Thought elections were over? Think again! Lots of electiony goodness coming up…

[Nathaniel Rakich @baseballot]

Wasn't expecting an Alaska update yesterday, but the state tells me this included precinct votes from Chevak, some Anchorage absentees, and updated results from hand-count precincts. The big 7-day early/mail/provisional drop will come tonight.

[Jacob Rubashkin @JacobRubashkin]

Latest Alaska vote drop pushes Peltola's lead to 2,507.

If the AP estimate of ~73,000 votes remaining is accurate, she would need to win them by about 54-46% to win an outright majority (she won latest batch 69-31).

But even if she doesn't get to 50%, she's in a good spot.

[Michael Li 李之樸 @mcpli]

The wide expectation had been that Mississippi would do a redistricting special session this month to target Black districts, but after last Tuesday, you have to think there is some reconsideration of that plan.

[Nathaniel Rakich @baseballot]

@MichaelKiwi77 I don’t see that in the data. Silver Bulletin and FiftyPlusOne both rated #MSsen as Solid R; if anything, Cook was the most bullish on Colom.

[Nathaniel Rakich @baseballot]

Colom deserves a lot of credit for (probably) beating the odds, but the reality is, this is just what the data pointed to for most of the cycle. Forecasters can't be expected to divine hidden truths.

[Scott Colom @scott_colom]

At some point, we have to talk about @CookPolitical and other “prognosticators” who had me and other southern candidates labeled as solid R for much of the campaign cycle. They made it much more difficult to fundraise and are part of the reason the South has been neglected for so long.

They’re only a reflection of the past and mysteriously avoid any accountability when they’re wrong. One of their “analysts” was extremely condescending to me (not Jessica) when I tried to make my pitch for why they were wrong about my rating like he knew something about MS politics when he’s never been to the Sip. This attitude hurt Jaime Davis & others so much.

[Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn]

Job opportunity: NYT fellowship in Election Analytics, 2027.
A great early career opportunity for someone with a demonstrated interest in nonpartisan election data and analysis
https://t.co/YXLKlCmCCM

[Mississippi Today @MSTODAYnews]

Hinds County Election officials are on pace to finish counting affidavit ballots in Mississippi’s U.S. Senate race by the end of Monday, and expect to upload results on Wednesday, an attorney for the county told Mississippi Today. https://t.co/6WOunhX3fS