丘山

每天实测 AI 新东西：前沿模型、生图玩法，顺带看加密市场。不转发抽奖，不喊单。

[丘山 @firethewalla]

来源：
新浪财经 11/6 https://t.co/VemdqzZXDq
金融界/智通财经 11/6 https://t.co/qgGbgBdsan

[丘山 @firethewalla]

中期选举的结果，市场只庆祝了一天。

11月4日，民主党拿下参众两院，道指涨 3.03%、创 2025 年 4 月以来最佳单日，油价跌超 8%，市场买的是「不确定性没了」。

11月5日，剧本反转：道指跌 3.44% 回吐全部涨幅，标普跌 4.36%，纳指跌 5.52%、较 10 月高点进入调整区间，三大指数同创 2025 年 4 月以来最差单日。费城半导体指数跌超 12%，英伟达跌 9.26%，AMD 跌超 17%，数据中心运营商普遍跌超 10%。

市场给出的理由是：新国会可能收紧数据中心审批与 AI 监管。但要注意，普通法案仍需参议院 60 票和总统签字，目前没有任何一项收紧政策落地——先跌的，是最拥挤的 AI 交易本身。加密也没躲过：比特币跌破 7.6 万美元，24 小时跌超 5%。

你觉得这轮 AI 抛售，定价的是真监管，还是借选举给拥挤交易找了个出口？

[丘山 @firethewalla]

https://t.co/TqqauYEyoH (sourced to AMD's official release): https://t.co/zCwq9V1onu
Filing-based read-back (evidinvest, figures checked against AMD's 8-K): https://t.co/PHvOOo024s

[丘山 @firethewalla]

AMD's Q3 reads like the quarter the second pole in AI compute became real. Revenue hit $13.38B, up 45% year over year, and Data Center nearly doubled to $8.55B — now 64% of all sales. Q4 is guided to about $17B, and for 2027 management guides revenue growth above 80%, with Data Center AI revenue more than doubling. Those 2027 numbers are guidance, not results.
The other side of the ledger: free cash flow was just $554M, down from $1.53B a year ago — a 4% margin versus 17% — while inventory jumped roughly $3B in a single quarter to feed the Helios ramp. The growth is real; the cash conversion has not caught up yet.
So is AI compute becoming a two-player market — or does the moat still live in the software stack rather than the silicon?

[丘山 @firethewalla]

腾讯新闻（凤凰网科技转《科创板日报》）：https://t.co/Si6xMkgCLt
电子工程专辑深度梳理：https://t.co/dMjtPejdD6

[丘山 @firethewalla]

据《科创板日报》11 月 3 日援引多名产业链人士的消息，DeepSeek 的下一代模型 V5，计划改用华为昇腾芯片做预训练。此前昇腾在 DeepSeek 的体系里主要承担推理，训练环节仍在海外芯片上——这次若按计划落地，将是它的旗舰模型第一次原生在昇腾上从头训练。
这不是临时起意：9 月 30 日，DeepSeek 已开源一整套面向昇腾平台的基础设施组件，包括 TileLang、DeepGEMM、FlashMLA、DeepEP 等，与此前适配英伟达平台的组件一一对应。软件栈的铺垫，先于硬件的切换。
但边界要写清：目前这只是产业链消息，DeepSeek 尚未公开回应；V5 仍在选型阶段，参数和发布时间都没有披露，各家对落地时间的说法也不一致。预训练对算力规模、互联和稳定性的要求远高于推理，国产算力能不能扛下完整的训练流程，还得等真正训出来才算数。
问题留给你：如果 V5 真的用昇腾训成，最先被改变的，会是国产算力的定价，还是国产模型的发布节奏？

[丘山 @firethewalla]

Binance official update: https://t.co/IsY1MkK4q9
https://t.co/Gyh2AM5qdc report: https://t.co/ldSFPoHNdT

[丘山 @firethewalla]

Binance's zero-knowledge proof is done — a day ahead of schedule.

The full proof for the Oct 31, 00:00 UTC snapshot landed on Nov 2. Holders of ten tokens — BTC, ETH, USDT, BNB, SOL, USDC, XRP, USD1, RLUSD and ZEC — can now verify for themselves that their balances are backed at least 1:1.

Coverage is now ~95% of the stolen amount, up from 90%. The remaining ~5% sits outside those ten tokens, in less-liquid assets Binance is still sourcing.

Phase two of withdrawals also started today, Nov 3 at 04:00 UTC, reopening more networks and assets progressively, each after its own checks.

Two limits worth keeping in view: the proof attests to one snapshot moment, before the withdrawal wave — it is not a guarantee about any future date. And every figure above is Binance's own claim; the point of the proof is that users no longer have to take it on trust, they can check the math.

Next checkpoint: a wider snapshot on Nov 4, with a new proof taking ~40–50 hours to generate.

Will you actually run the verifier — or is "trust me" still enough for most users?

[丘山 @firethewalla]

https://t.co/LAu3KKyfjs 解读：https://t.co/Y4xDW4EBTz
凤凰网报道：https://t.co/ydGltpFgso

[丘山 @firethewalla]

Anthropic 昨天交了修订版招股书，Q3 数字补上了。单季营收 169.56 亿美元，同比增长 1127%，环比还有约 47%——增速在放缓，绝对量还是惊人。

问题出在利润：Q2 刚做出 9.74 亿美元经营利润，Q3 又转成 5.67 亿美元经营亏损。算力与基础设施花了 98.63 亿美元，占营收约 58%，其中约 50 亿美元是高价短期算力；再加上约 19.6 亿美元的非现金捐赠匹配费用。把这类项目调整掉，调整后经营利润其实还有 24.63 亿美元。

账面净亏损 232.91 亿美元看着更吓人，但其中约 219.36 亿美元是可转债和 SAFE 的公允价值变动，非现金，不等于真烧掉了这么多钱。

真正的大数字在最后：算力和基础设施承诺总额约 8954 亿美元，约 4475 亿美元要在 2030 年底前发生，光未来 12 个月就到期约 698 亿美元；其中约 2138 亿美元带终止权或条件，并非全部无条件要付。9 月底它手里的现金及短期投资约 1318 亿美元。

营收一年涨 12 倍，同时先签下近 9000 亿美元的算力长约——你觉得这是远见，还是把未来十年的利润提前押上了？

[丘山 @firethewalla]

北京日报客户端报道：https://t.co/eDQxZFNyj8

[丘山 @firethewalla]

李佳琦昨晚没卖口红，卖了 Token。

千问办公月卡原价 28 元，直播间 1 分钱，半小时卖出近 10 万份，对应约 2 万亿 Token 额度——注意，是已售额度，整场福利池是 20 万亿，别混成一回事。

这才是关键转折：Token 第一次被当成零售商品卖进直播间。就像当年买流量包，你买的不是 GB，是能刷多少条视频；现在买的也不是词元，是能做多少份 PPT、写多少份周报。

1 分钱是补贴拉新，销量不等于商业模式跑通。但一个技术单位能被主播用“3、2、1”喊出来，本身就是出圈信号。

你会为 1 分钱买一张 AI 办公月卡吗？

[丘山 @firethewalla]

https://t.co/Ax36iHh3i6

[丘山 @firethewalla]

Sam Altman says your PC's RAM is a "quite terrible" use of the world's DRAM.

On the Cheeky Pint podcast (Oct 29), his argument was about allocation, not your machine: scarce memory sitting in everyone's computer, used — by his estimate — 5% of the time, when it could be kept busy in a data center. That 5% comes with no published measurement. Treat it as his estimate, not a finding.

He has a point about utilization. He misses the point about ownership. RAM sitting idle isn't wasted the way an empty warehouse is wasted — it's ready. Ready for the tab, the game, the compile, the local model you run without sending your data to someone else's servers. A car parked 95% of the time isn't "waste" either; it's there when you need it.

The real question isn't efficiency. It's who gets to call your hardware waste: the person who owns it, or the company that would rather rent it back to you by the token?

Would you trade owning your RAM for renting it by the token?

[丘山 @firethewalla]

https://t.co/gjvF8NCCMe

[丘山 @firethewalla]

币安被盗 63 亿美元那周，比特币周线没有崩。

周日收在约 7.82 万美元，连续第 7 周站在 50 周均线（约 7.57 万美元）之上。十月月线倒是收跌 7.32%，是 6 月以来第一次月度亏损——7 到 9 月三个月合计还涨了 43%。

所以现在的问题不是“币安那件事有没有伤到链”，而是 7.6 万美元这一带到底是防线还是陷阱：守住了，它就是这轮回调里被反复验证的地板；跌破了，上面那个 50 周均线就从支撑变成第一道要夺回的位置。

明天美国中期选举是个验证窗口，但别把它当方向信号：选举能给市场一个理由波动，给不了比特币一个底部。

你看 7.6 万美元是防线，还是陷阱？

[丘山 @firethewalla]

https://t.co/xjJhfzdYoH

[丘山 @firethewalla]

DeepSeek 刚开源的 Super-agent，讲的不是模型更强，而是人管不过来了。

10/31 Harness 团队开源 dsh-superagent-prototype（MIT 协议）：一个常驻 Router 接需求、派活，多个 Worker 各自并行干活、最后以 PR 交回来。团队的观察是：一般人同时只能跟进 3–5 个活跃会话——瓶颈从模型能力，变成了人的注意力。

先泼冷水：这是研究原型，不是正式产品；提速数字来自团队合成环境自测（p95 约 15.7 分钟 vs 单会话约 29.5 分钟），没测真实编码质量，也没独立复现。

但方向值得记一笔：以后用 AI，可能不是一次问一句，而是一次交办一批、只验结果。你现在同时开几个 AI 会话就跟不上了？

[丘山 @firethewalla]

路透·10/31 最新（补齐 90%）https://t.co/LkAMNLfDxr ；CoinDesk·第 3 份更新转述 https://t.co/r3oZ4TYq8B ；币安官方公告 https://t.co/DGsrMLxu3I https://t.co/NSVU1kA9ac

[丘山 @firethewalla]

The biggest hack in crypto history — and the market barely blinked.

Two days on from the ~$6.3B Binance breach: roughly $3B of the stolen funds are frozen (frozen isn't returned — that takes legal process), Binance says it has now replenished 95% of the hole from its own funds (up from 90%), with the top-10 coins fully covered, and its proof-of-reserves snapshot is already out.

BTC sits near $78K, about 3% below where it traded before the hack. By 21Shares' count, BTC fell just over 2% in the first 24 hours — versus a 26% drawdown after FTX. Different windows give different numbers (Reuters had Thursday down over 4%), but the direction is clear: an exchange got hacked, the chain didn't break, and the market treated those as different things.

Withdrawals have begun resuming today, in phases — phase one went live between 14:00 and 17:00 Beijing time, starting with BTC, ETH, BNB and major stablecoins across 15 networks. TRM attributed the attack to North Korea-linked TraderTraitor with high confidence, and the FBI has now formally confirmed North Korea-linked TraderTraitor as responsible; Binance itself hasn't named anyone.

Is this what maturity looks like — or is the market just numb?