AJ

Advertising sales, Raiders, Michigan State, Warriors, Lions, stocks, tacos, passport stamps 🇮🇳 🇺🇸 ☠️ 🏈 🦁

[Heisenberg @Mr_Derivatives]

Bill Ackman’s fund $PSHZF hit a fresh 13 month low today and is now down -24% ytd, underperforming the S&P500 benchmark by over 3,000 basis points.

Oof.

[AJ @flipcuplegend]

@RickPalaciosJr as crazy as your chart looks, i can attest to it living currently in chicago but from bay area. constantly comparing income between jobs for myself in tech/gf in nursing, bay area kept making more sense vs chicago. curious to see it on a rental vs 6.5% home ownership

[Rick Palacios Jr. @RickPalaciosJr]

#Austin is now the only big housing market ‘fairly priced’ according to our under/overpriced index.

Historically, housing markets rarely hit this threshold. You’d have to rewind the clock to the post-GFC period (2009-2012) to see ‘fairly priced’ across various housing markets.

[FTN @FTNFantasy]

Nobody had a better DVOA vs. the blitz than Matthew Stafford 👑

📊 FTN Stats & Charting

[Saagar Enjeti @esaagar]

Home ownership cost increase 2019-2025 via @WSJ

Principal - ⬆️ 22%
Interest - ⬆️ 35%
Property taxes - ⬆️ 31%
Insurance - ⬆️ 72%
Home maintenance - ⬆️ 85%
Emergency repairs - ⬆️ 175%

[Collin Corbett @CollinCorbett]

16 different host cities for the World Cup. Chicago isn't one of them.

That's tens of thousands of tourists who aren't spending money in Chicagoland right now. Road trips that aren't traveling through Illinois. A wasted opportunity to showcase America's 3rd largest city on the world stage.

Why? Because we couldn't afford it. Illinois and Chicago are in fiscal and economic death spirals, and it's bankrupting our potential.

When cities like Kansas City are thinking bigger than we are, it's time to look in the mirror. Chicago is a world class city. It's time we started acting like it.

[AskLivermore @asklivermore]

The next stock market CRASH will happen in 2028 - 2029.

Until then, we have a MINIMUM 60%+ more to go for the S&P 500 ( $SPY ).

From 2008 to 2016 was a 276% gain until the cycle ended (8 years)
From 2016 to 2022 was a 207% gain until the cycle ended (8 years).

From 2022 until now, we're at 132% gain, with ~2 more years to go of our AI super-cycle.
Let's get rich together.

[Arthur MacWaters @ArthurMacwaters]

1% of people account for 63% of all violent crimes.

0.2% of people ever commit murder, and **67% of all murders**are committed by people with prior arrests

You can literally just fix crime by not tolerating people who show a history of being destructive to society.

[AJ @flipcuplegend]

@elliotrades Leo’s is the best. Have tried brothers cousins? I miss tacos in LA

[AJ @flipcuplegend]

@Mr_Derivatives brooo what happened $LMT

[AJ @flipcuplegend]

@investorRandR @michaelsikand Michael has lost his edge pumping spacex dude was a true dog spitting out gems now talking about the most overrated IPO in history lol

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

Just some random thoughts, I do think AI is the most disruptive technology in human history.

To the level of agricultural or industrial revolution.

Since Anthropic, OpenAi, XAI, and others are racing to build superintelligence.

The amount of economic impact can't be measured if AI helps find cures for cancer or accelerates discovery for Quantum Computing.

Or if AI end up displacing the workforce, which increases profitability for companies.

The US Gov has every incentive to keep the buildout going too, as the implications from Warfare, Cybersecurity, is also immeasurable if China takes the lead.

So there's likely to be incentives and subsidies to win, even if there's not enough profit derived LLM training/inference.

As for sustainability, when you look upstream, $GOOGL is able to fund it majorly with their own cashflow, same with $AMZN, $MSFT.

More lukewarm on $META. Very iffy about $ORCL.

But I do see some bubbles forming around debt interest like $CRWV.

Maybe circular valuations that's happening with OpenAI backlog agreements or $NVDA / $AMD agreements with Neoclouds to buy their GPUs.

But as seen with $MSFT and having OpenAI be a major part of the backlog, it did correct off the information, so "bubbles" like that do pop despite the overall markets increasing.

Definitely don't see a bubble in upstream semiconductors from $LITE to Sk Hynix though since the amount of profit they get from the buildout would likely be insane to make up for capex decreasing.

OpenAI was actually my biggest fear from contagion, eg. $CRWV, $CBRS and others, but they just raised a lot.

So think it will be fine for another 1 1/2 years of capex, especially if they IPO this year.

I also don't think we'll get massive Fed tightening despite "predictions" since this will trigger a contagion since many of these players rely heavily on debt.

And although the Fed is independent, don't think Trump would have supported someone who is against his administration goals.

As for semiconductor valuations going up every day like $AMD or $MU, there's probably going to be some corrections here and there. Everything going up together is kinda unhealthy.

Can't time the capex peak but just from $AVGO and other projections, it just keeps accelerating exponentially into 2028.

Especially as everyone is starting to sign multi year agreements as well.

OpenAI contagion / hyperscaler capex decreasing / fed tightening was what I'm looking out for, and no blaring signs of any of those yet.

So I think the music will keep playing for this year at the bare minimum.

[Gregory Blotnick @gregoryblotnick]

I swear bro...Bessent hitting Newsom with this, might have been the closest thing to a Verbal Knockout that I've ever seen.

"Newsom strikes me as Patrick Bateman meets Sparkle Beach Ken. He may be the only Californian who knows less about economics than Kamala Harris."

Like, u don't say "nice one"...its omg, or silence.

It's Carthage in 216 BC. The war ends, nothing is left but scorched earth...complete and total annihilation.

Lesson in there for real

Bessent's command of English, his demeanor...calm yet amused, hints of contempt and scorn and mild annoyance at having to swat this pesky gnat

all shows u that war doesn't have to be long or drawn out.

15-20 words is all u need -- delivered with a smile -- is all it takes to just bury a motherfucker.

perfect 10/10

and then puts alex soros in a closed casket for absolutely no good reason lmao

clean domeshot - "sugar daddy" - ping.

he bodied those two guys so bad, u forgot that Kamala caught a vicious stray off the rip.

triple kill.

son muerte...seeya later bozos 😎

Bessent = Top 3 Americans of my lifetime, and I don't know who 1 and 2 are...cannot remember ever feeling so proud of an official 🇺🇸

[Fareed Zakaria @FareedZakaria]

California is one of the most dynamic places on the planet.

But it is a case study in how a rich society can spend more and more while producing less and less of what its ordinary citizens need.

My take:

[Heisenberg @Mr_Derivatives]

Sydney Sweeney sighting at tonight’s Knicks/Spurs game.

Whoa.

[Vinod Khosla @vkhosla]

I'm a technology optimist. I’ve spent four decades studying disruptive innovation, from the microprocessor, the internet, mobile phones to OpenAI. I'm certain AI will do 80% of the economically valuable work humans do today, for 80% of all jobs, faster than most believe. The question isn't whether mass underemployment arrives, but whether we have a policy framework ready. Right now we don't.

[Charlie Bilello @charliebilello]

Price Increases over last 5 years...
New Cars: +19%
Groceries: +26%
Family Health Insurance: +27%
Shelter: +29%
Restaurants: +31%
Dozen Eggs: +35%
Home Prices: +35%
Electricity: +40%
Gas Utilities: +41%
Transportation: +42%
Gasoline: +52%
Auto Insurance: +54%
Ground Beef: +64%
Fuel Oil: +69%
Coffee: +108%

[Prof @TheProfInvestor]

My First purchase of SpaceX will be in 10 months.

All IPOs trade in a similar trend.
Shocking stats:

- Most IPOs drop 50% after going live. Look at $CAVA $RDDT $ALAB $CRWV $CART $CBRS
- Some drop further to 70-80%, look at $HOOD $PLTR
- And some never recover: $MBLY $CRCL $KLAR