Carlo

Grumpy Old Man

[Carlo @flockherd]

@DanFessler We see to be accelerating civilisational decline by wasting so much money, deeply concerning.

[Carlo @flockherd]

@orstraya @TrenchHuntr123 @eevblog That's interesting

[Carlo @flockherd]

@TrenchHuntr123 @orstraya @eevblog What happened there ? I can't keep up with all this!

[Carlo @flockherd]

@eevblog How is it practical if it doesn't make economic sense ? Has someone done the calculation ? My guess is all the things they need to ship up for cooling will outweigh the main payload 2-3x and not to mention the maintenance costs. It'd be cheaper to build it under the sea.

[Carlo @flockherd]

@DrewPavlou @elonmusk At least 5 women are killed each year in Northern Ireland by their partners who are mostly white, does Elon tweet about that ? Why this sudden interest in the sanctity of human life ?

[Carlo @flockherd]

@eevblog You must be fuming inside. Sucks to be #21.

https://t.co/xUZjTZaSlw

[Carlo @flockherd]

@eevblog Commsec supports put options. How much are you willing to gamble on this one ?

[Carlo @flockherd]

@AshPolitik What's immoral about the world's oldest profession ? Stop being self righteous.

[Carlo @flockherd]

@AshPolitik He sounds more sensible that Pauline.

[friendlyjordies @friendlyjordies]

The utter brilliance of Pauline Hanson

[Thierry from arvy 🇨🇭 @ThierryBorgeat]

51% of the S&P 500's market cap is in stocks trading above 10x sales.

Half the index.

In 2002, after Sun Microsystems crashed 90%, CEO Scott McNealy famously said this about his own stock at 10x sales:

"At 10x revenues, to give you a 10-year payback, I have to pay you 100% of revenues for 10 straight years in dividends. Zero costs. Zero R&D. Zero taxes. Zero employees. What were you thinking?"

He was explaining why investors had been insane to pay it.

Today, half the S&P 500 trades there.

Different decade. Same math.

[S Tominaga (Aka Dr Craig Wright) @CsTominaga]

This is a charming little theory, mostly because it mistakes a spreadsheet coincidence for a capital-flow model.

“AI market cap increased by $19 trillion” does not mean $19 trillion of cash was transferred into AI stocks. Market capitalisation is not a bank account. It is last price multiplied by shares outstanding. When Nvidia rises, nobody needs to gather the full increase in market cap from BTC holders in a wheelbarrow and deliver it to Nasdaq.

That is the first error.

The second is calling BTC “the most liquid risk asset on earth.” No. It is a risk asset, certainly. Liquid compared with many speculative tokens, yes. But compared with Treasuries, major FX, S&P futures, large-cap equities, or actual institutional funding markets, this is adorable.

The third error is assuming that BTC is being “drained” to fund AI IPOs. That requires evidence of a flow channel: BTC sales, fiat conversion, capital migration, allocation into AI primary issuance, and enough scale to explain the price move. Otherwise it is just a bedtime story for people who discovered correlation and mistook it for causation.

The fourth error is confusing public-market revaluation with IPO funding. AI market cap expansion is mostly repricing of existing listed firms, not fresh capital formation equal to the headline number. A stock going up does not mean the economy found new cash equal to the market-cap increase. It means the marginal buyer repriced future expectations.

BTC is falling because marginal demand is weakening relative to marginal supply. ETF flows, leveraged positions, miner economics, treasury-company pressure, derivatives liquidations, liquidity withdrawal, and declining speculative appetite are all actual mechanisms. “AI got big” is not a mechanism. It is a slogan wearing a calculator.

The phrase “13x the size of Bitcoin” is not analysis either. It merely compares two market capitalisations as though size alone explains capital movement. By that logic, every large asset class should constantly drain every smaller one. Strangely, reality declines the invitation.

If BTC were truly the superior reserve asset its promoters claim, AI investment would not drain it. Capital would use BTC as collateral, settlement, treasury reserve, or transactional infrastructure. Instead, when productive opportunities appear elsewhere, capital leaves the speculative shrine and goes looking for cash flows.

That is the part being avoided.

AI equities at least claim earnings, infrastructure demand, productivity effects, enterprise adoption, and future revenue. Whether overvalued or not, there is a business model underneath the froth. BTC offers the hope that someone later pays more for the same inert object.

So no, BTC is not crashing because AI created “$19 trillion” and sucked the money out through a golden straw.

BTC is falling because its marginal buyer is weakening, its leveraged structure is fragile, its institutional wrappers are procyclical, and its economic utility has not matched the narrative sold around it.

A market cap comparison is not economics. It is numerology with better lighting.

[Carlo @flockherd]

@BullTheoryio Correction this is not, be patient you must.

[JerryRigEverything @ZacksJerryRig]

CONGRATS @elonmusk ! Your work at DOGE was amazing. You decreased the national debt by a positive 2.8 trillion dollars, and parasites the USA hasn't seen in 60 years are BACK. Nice work dude. Nobody could have predicted this.

[Carlo @flockherd]

At least someone's being sensible in this crazy world we live in. You'll find this one interesting @eevblog

https://t.co/8AQEySvdoe

[Carlo @flockherd]

@GhostOfFrederic @eevblog @bowtiedstocks A correction long overdue.

[Carlo @flockherd]

@IanSJohnston you have a hoarding problem, when's the repair video coming ? :)

[Rony @RonyToThePoint]

@MikeCarlton01

[Mike Carlton @MikeCarlton01]

It’s a podcast on autism. But still the Jewish lobby demands to cancel Grace Tame… or anyone they don’t like. The arrogance is next level.

https://t.co/7rU8MzXjmT