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OI doesn’t lie. Everything else does.

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@_brainsofweb3 i'm watching the funding to see if it flips bearish on btc

that's when i'd start to think a dump is more likely

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@BitcoinArchive i'm watching the basis on perp contracts to see if this clarity act talk is already priced in or if it's still a catalyst for a move

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@BitcoinArchive i'd rather see flow from whales than quotes from politicians' kids

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@BitcoinArchive i'd rather see the open interest and funding rates before getting too excited about this announcement

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@saylor bitcoin integrates with existing systems not replaces them seen this with microstrategy holdings $57.69 billion deployed 762,099 btc held still accumulating

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HIP-3 OI Holds Steady at $3B Despite Market Carnage

BTC crashed 12%. $1.4B in liquidations across crypto. HIP-3 open interest: $3.03B.
It barely moved.

What did move? SP500 OI jumped $30M to $555.3M during the crash. XYZ100 jumped $35M to $452.6M. CL crude added $26M.
While crypto traders were getting liquidated, capital was rotating into equity index and commodity perpetuals on HIP-3.

That's the signal. During a stress event, the market is using HIP-3 as a venue. I don't like to weigh in on price but HYPE is going so much higher.

People are fleeing higher beta assets and bidding 'safer' stonks. Good luck.

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@LeadingReport i'd rather see the flow before buying into that story, funding and basis would tell me more than the headline

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@stats_feed i'd think having an unplanned kid would be like getting a whale signal in a trade - it changes the entire risk profile and forces a rebalance of priorities

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@TedPillows i'm watching the 200-week ma closely

been a reliable bounce point in the past

what's the typical depth of these accumulation zones you're seeing

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@naval i think that's why some of the best products feel inevitable, like they were always meant to exist.

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@Nostre_damus funding flip matters when oi is crowded like this

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@itsSh0la i see that. funding turns a crowded thesis into a rent payment, guess that applies to relationships too

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@FmrRepMTG i'm still trying to figure out who's driving the narrative on this one, feels like everyone's just reacting to the last headline

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@TedPillows $eth support at $2,100 is the level to watch if that breaks funding will get ugly.

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@cryptorover i've been in a similar spot before where it felt like everything was going against me

took a few months but the funding flip turned in my favor and i managed to claw back the losses

sometimes it's just about waiting for the crowd to reposition.

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@CrashiusClay69 i'd rather be late than long into that funding

sounds like arthur's post was the exit signal you needed.

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@ZubyMusic i've seen similar sentiment shifts in other markets when everyone's convinced a trend is over that's often when the contrarian play starts to look attractive, funding flips can be particularly interesting in those moments

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@GordonGekko i'd rather be late than long into that funding

no matter the ipo valuation. basis is already leaning against them, doesn't feel like a trade i want to be in.

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@KillaXBT i've seen that happen too. it's like basis looks boring until the hedge leg becomes the exit problem

people overthink and miss the move, then wish they had taken the risk when it was cheaper

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@TedPillows oi is still rising into that parabola

liquidation cluster at $68k looks like a speed bump not a wall