$IQE #IQE coming back to life this afternoon.
I dont think market has fully grasped what yesterdays news with $TSEM means, with no debt potential to rerate is very real imo.
DYOR.
$IQE may be one of the most overlooked bottleneck plays in photonics.
The biggest story isn't AI demand anymore. It's securing enough InP substrates and epitaxy capacity to meet that demand. JX expanding production and CSPs reportedly engaging directly with suppliers suggests the industry is taking supply constraints very seriously.
That's why $IQE's vertical integration matters. Control of both substrates and epitaxy could become a significant strategic advantage if optical demand continues accelerating.
The next key question is whether management can clearly articulate how shareholders benefit from that positioning.
$AAOI, $LITE, $COHR, and $XMAX remain key names I'm watching across the photonics stack.
@ParadisLabs My thesis is that many more LTAs involving $IQE will be announced in the future not only in photonics, but also in areas such as microLEDs and GaN based power semiconductors. It is quite interesting that the market still values $IQE below IntelliEPI.
Just as a recap, these were all my core European longs:
1. $SIVE
2. $LPK
3. $SOI
4. $RPI
5. $IQE
6. $ALRIB
7. $XFAB
Sivers: As you know by now, core laser chokepoint over next generation photonics, from 1.6T pluggables to CPO.
Embedded in many hyperscaler suppliers from Jabil to Ayar. Should go brrr 2027 but markets are forward looking, so ramps + qualifications should get priced in now.
LPK Laser - Glass core substrate "monopoly" with LIDE.
"More than 80% of major global players have selected our equipment for process validation, learning and scaling to mass production"
Soitec - Silicon photonics SoI substrate pure monopoly while coming out of legacy drag segments.
Raspberry Pi - Was my fun idea around Raspberry Pis being used for AI hardware deployments.
Previously this thing was mainly educational or hobby boards, but now used for edge/local AI. Just thought revenue increase would be extremely material and it played out well.
IQE - Critical epiwafer player for your Western photonics like Macom, Tower, Lumentum, and others.
Was kinda going under, but thought their latent capacity relative to Landmark was undervalued.
Also given how important it was, I thought that your downstream players + Govs wouldn't let it go under, so it was more of a moonshot idea earlier in the year.
Lot more derisked now, very important.
Riber - Kinda monopoly in the MBE space, exposure to Quantum / quantum dot + silicon photonics.
Found out from OSINT help from a friend latentvalue that Microsoft Quantum was buying their machines, so this was direct hyperscaler validation + kinda de-risked at current MCs.
XFab - SiC foundry backed by EU/US CHIPS Act with power semi upside. (152% Y/Y growth for their sic vertical).
Main growth was their silicon photonics foundry past 2027 that's getting evaled by nvidia. And that they're leading Europe's value chain efforts in photonics, kinda like an early tower semi.
We'll see how this plays out, thought power semi exposure + low P/B would derisk the company until they scale their photbunchonics efforts.
From my own personal thoughts:
Out of the maybe $SOI has already been re-rated the most? But I'm holding anyway.
$LPK and $ALRIB I think are still undervalued despite their monopolies.
$RPI is just kinda seeing how things go at this point, would be hilarious if they ended up like a mini nvidia for low end edge ai.
$IQE probably has a long way to go given new tower long term agreement, alongside macom. And if they convert latent capacity, I still think it has a chance of rerating like landmark.
$XFAB idk if im missing something or are markets missing something. you have nvidia as a direct eval of their silicon photonics foundry, and it's trading below replacement P/B. i think im right though.
$SIVE I see has the highest upside out of all of them given laser company ability to vertically integrate, acquire companies downstream to make their lasers more valuable, etc. Just like coherent/lumentum.
There's like 1-2 more random ones that aren't really material, but just in general.
These are the ones I've liked the most.
$IQE x $TSEM just announced a multi-year InP epiwafer supply agreement.
IQE is the non-Chinese InP epiwafer source Tower needed. Thatโs a geopolitical moat that is ever so crucial in this political complex tape.
200Gb/s pluggables today. 400Gb/lane modulators + optical circuit switches next. IQE is being designed into the full optical roadmap for AI data centers.
Shat makes this so interesting โ IQE sued Tower in 2022 for IP theft. Today Tower grants IQE a royalty-free porous silicon patent license as part of the deal.
Former adversary becomes anchor customer, if you canโt beat them? Join them. That only happens when your product is irreplaceable.
$LITE $MTSI were already IQE optical anchors. Add $TSEM and now you have three Tier-1 foundry relationships in the AI photonics stack.
When the market hands us lemons, we make lemonade. I position myself after the drop at 45 and 32. Now I can rip the benefits.
Iโm long $IQE