Fernando Martel García, PhD

Causal Inference, Enterprise Experimentation & ROI Strategy (ex-Microsoft, Nike, Marriott)

[Fernando Martel García, PhD @fmg_twtr]

@Afinetheorem I believe there was a study done in NY comparing electricity use in blocks lined with trees versus those with no trees. AC related use down due to shade, also temps, IIRC

[Fernando Martel García, PhD @fmg_twtr]

@GergelyOrosz the problem is that internal allocations are done via rationing, not the price system. The net is often a a significant missallocation of resources. I wrote about this here https://t.co/eA3VmPGoTy

[Fernando Martel García, PhD @fmg_twtr]

One (of many) reasons why public infrastructure is so expensive in the USA is because local authorities lack engineering and procurement expertise. They rely on consultants who exploit the principal-agent problem to their advantage.

In Spain costs are low bc the public sector has experts in its staff.

I think there is a lesson here about optimal delegation to agents....

see https://t.co/KG8usI4qDb

[Fernando Martel García, PhD @fmg_twtr]

@paulg The question is not whether it is possible so much as wether it is probable, no? I suspect rapid compound growth for years on end is quite rare...

[Fernando Martel García, PhD @fmg_twtr]

@ojblanchard1 @tylercowen I read the piece and to me it reads like an argument for mercantilism (the USA and China are being mercantilist, the EU should follow suit )

https://t.co/2EjV2R6TWb

[Fernando Martel García, PhD @fmg_twtr]

@lugaricano The report paints a picture of a return to mercantilism. Where all important economic activity has to be done in the metropolis (USA).

My reading of economic history, and economics, is that this would be a very bad policy for the USA, sowing the seed of its own decline.

[Fernando Martel García, PhD @fmg_twtr]

@lugaricano The report paints a picture of a return to mercantilism. Where all important economic activity has to be done in the metropolis (USA).

My reading of economic history, and economics, is that this would be a very bad policy for the USA, sowing the seed of its own decline.

[Fernando Martel García, PhD @fmg_twtr]

Great piece highlighting the political roots of macro instability. What is the latest on the dynamics of how economic policy and political equilibria interact?

The Chilean Mirror: What Argentina Sees and Cannot Yet Reach https://t.co/H0ixkMNetK

[Fernando Martel García, PhD @fmg_twtr]

Hard to trust stochastic agents in deterministic applications https://t.co/zGxJrE7oxw

[Polymarket @Polymarket]

JUST IN: Starbucks retires AI inventory tool across North America after it reportedly miscounted & mislabeled store items.

[Fernando Martel García, PhD @fmg_twtr]

For lovers of the arcane: Knotting Matters Magazine - IGKT https://t.co/xVEERPCayU

[Fernando Martel García, PhD @fmg_twtr]

Couldn't the AI have helped them come up with an incentive scheme, and a set of metrics, that focused on driving outcomes not outputs....

[Joe Weisenthal @TheStalwart]

The FT says that Amazon employees are doing random unnecessary task automations to consume tokens and to show their bosses that they're using AI more https://t.co/wZ204CKi32

[Fernando Martel García, PhD @fmg_twtr]

@Afinetheorem To me it looks no different than copy paste. The video and voices are good bc they copy almost exactly the style of the training material, but with a different script. The AI has learned to mimic Disney. What are the general equilibrium implications of this?

[Fernando Martel García, PhD @fmg_twtr]

People make similar arguments about gambling. I am not convinced. I suspect there are a lot of second order effects, social contagion, etc that interfere with the selection effect.

It's like saying a world of sin selects for the virtuous. Maybe. Or maybe the virtuous go down with the sinners. I suspect the model is underspecified...

[Fernando Martel García, PhD @fmg_twtr]

It seems folks have forgotten their Adam Smith 101: Specialisation and the gains from trade....

[Armin Ronacher ⇌ @mitsuhiko]

Why does everybody want managers to be ICs? Please someone explain this to me from first principles.

[Fernando Martel García, PhD @fmg_twtr]

Would like an RCT comparing these kinds of organizations to more traditional ones. What is impact on software reliability and performance, security, customer adoption and churn, employee retention and satisfaction, revenue and profit. Until then, this is all speculation.

[Alex Tabarrok @ATabarrok]

Coinbase moving to a leaner, AI-based, learning organization.

[Fernando Martel García, PhD @fmg_twtr]

@johnmyleswhite But then you are stuck managing state, no? An ASI should master memory - and just as important - forgetting.

[Fernando Martel García, PhD @fmg_twtr]

Great article by @timoreilly on scenarios for AI adoption and impact on jobs. https://t.co/sBWzMzRJ7z

[Fernando Martel García, PhD @fmg_twtr]

@johnjhorton +1 for using tung oil. Are you using the raw stuff or the stuff mixed with solvents? If the former, how is it holding up to rain, uv etc.? Does it dry well? I'm trying to experiment with less toxic / biodegradable options....

[Fernando Martel García, PhD @fmg_twtr]

This chart commits the classic base-rate error: it shows P(college | CEO) and pretends that answers P(CEO | college). "No college" can top the list among CEOs and still be a terrible path to becoming one, because the denominator is enormous.

[Christian Keil @pronounced_kyle]

If you want to be a S&P 500 CEO, the best college to go to is "no college"

[Luis Garicano 🇪🇺🇺🇦 @lugaricano]

I have a new piece out today on AI Adoption in @HarvardBiz with Antonio Cabrales, José Durán @toniroldanm, and colleagues from @BBVA on why most enterprise AI programs fail and what BBVA did differently.

Most large companies have a shadow AI economy. As of Summer 2025, only 40% of firms had bought official LLM subscriptions, but employees at 90%+ used consumer AI for work on the side. The standard corporate response is to restrict and monitor. The "core IT" department takes over and sees its task as reducing usage. This is the wrong reaction. Shadow AI is not a threat. It is a demand signal telling you that productivity gains exist.

BBVA deployed ChatGPT Enterprise company-wide in a secure cloud, compressing risk assessment, legal review, and GDPR compliance into two months. Their bet was that unmanaged hidden usage is more dangerous than rapid managed deployment.

The rollout leveraged "FOMO" (fear of missing out): only 3,000 initial licenses, allocated competitively with a "use it or lose it" policy. This turned enterprise AI from a mandate into a privilege. Then they built an Adoption Network: Champions, Co-Champions, and 200 Wizards (power users) who provided peer-to-peer support. The Community of Practice became the most active internal forum in BBVA's history.

Within a year, active users grew from 3,000 to 11,000. 83% use it weekly. Employees built 4,800+ custom GPTs. In audit, 99% of 600 auditors worldwide became active users, saving 3-4 hours per week. In Mexico, an insurance-advisory GPT cut query response time by 92% for 4,400 branch managers. These tools were built by frontline employees, not by IT. A human always owns the output. No direct writes to core systems.

If you want enterprise AI to work, stop building centralized plans. Trust the people who already figured out where AI helps. Give them a secure environment, clear rules, and a network to share what they learn.
https://t.co/99szYBlTwv