That's when the SpaceX IPO halo lifts the whole market and we set all time highs before the IPO. Once SpaceX IPOs the market will dump as there will be a liquidity rotation into SpaceX and all other tech names will be at a discount.
Just wanted to journal some late night thoughts during this volatile week to look back on.
Today 28 April till FOMC we dump hard. The bottom of the candle will be during powell's speech which is expected to be hawkish considering current oil prices.
Between 5/6 May and 20 May many smaller tech names will report earnings as well. After Nvidia's earnings we will see a slight correction as Nvidia's past earnings have shown and pump again once June starts.
US cannot afford to let the war carry on any longer with midterms coming up and oil above 100/barrel. Market by then has had its 5-10% correction and we start another rally into Nvidia's earnings around 20 May.
We continue dumping into 5/6 May when Iran and the US finally reach a compromise because Iran can no longer afford the blockade to continue any longer. They need to export their oil as storage is nearing a maximum.
29 April after 4 of the 7 Mag 7 report earnings we dump even more since there's nothing else propping up the market and a correction is long overdue. Profit taking regardless of earnings report even though earnings beat is expected.
CHINA IS PLAYING WITH TRUMP’S PATIENCE.
AND IT’S WORKING.👇
Over the past few weeks, reports suggest that China is using the U.S. stock market as a negotiation weapon.
They’ve know something crucial about Trump, he personally measures his presidency’s success by how high the stock market is.
Every time the S&P 500 hits new highs, Trump sees it as proof that his policies are winning.
And China knows this better than anyone.
So what are they doing?
They’re delaying negotiations, stretching talks, and creating uncertainty because they know one thing: uncertainty hurts markets.
When markets drop, Trump feels the heat directly.
And when he feels it, he’s forced to move faster toward a deal that benefits both sides not just the U.S.
It’s a psychological chess match disguised as a trade war.
Now, there’s another reason this timing matters.
In April next year, the U.S. has midterm elections.
And Trump can’t afford another April style crash like we saw earlier this year.
Stock market performance plays a huge role in voter sentiment.
If markets stay weak, it damages his strong economy narrative and that could cost him politically.
So, Trump is cornered between economic optics and policy reality.
Here’s what’s happening behind the scenes 👇
The Federal Reserve is already showing signs of easing its stance.
Several Fed officials have been hinting that a 25bps or even 50bps rate cut could be on the table soon.
Powell himself indirectly signaled that the QT (Quantitative Tightening) phase is nearing its end.
At the same time, the Treasury Secretary has said they are “ready to take all actions needed to stabilize the economy.”
In simple terms, that means liquidity is coming back.
Now, combine these pieces:
• Fed hinting at rate cuts
• Treasury preparing interventions
• Trump under election pressure
• China stalling negotiations
It all leads to one inevitable outcome, more volatility now, more liquidity later.
When uncertainty rises, the Fed steps in to calm markets.
When the Fed adds liquidity, risk assets, especially crypto benefit the most.
That’s why this moment is so critical for the market cycle.
Crypto isn’t just reacting to tariffs or headlines anymore; it’s reacting to the liquidity flow that follows.
We’re entering a phase where:
→ Rate cuts are back on the table.
→ QT is almost done.
→ Inflation data is softening.
→ Political pressure is rising.
And that’s the same mix we saw before every major rally 2019, 2020, and 2023.
But there’s one more twist this time.
Unlike earlier cycles, crypto is now a recognized institutional asset class.
It’s part of every global liquidity narrative.
Even the U.S. government, while cracking down on scams, has openly supported regulated crypto and stablecoin growth.
That’s why this cycle could last longer than previous ones.
In past cycles, the top usually came in November or December of the post-halving year.
But this time, it might extend into February or beyond as liquidity builds and institutions keep buying dips.
So yes, the trade war headlines look bad.
The volatility feels scary.
But under the surface, the next phase of the rally is being prepared.
Every policy move, every tariff announcement, every unexpected crash, it’s part of the same setup:
Pressure → Panic → Policy Response → Liquidity → Expansion.
We’ve seen it before, and it’s playing out again.
This isn’t the end of the bull market.
It’s the reset before the next leg begins.
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