You want to short this $ES ripper? You gonna do it anyway. Here’s how you think…
Instead of shorting on the way up into nATH that prints and losing 5-10-20p each time. Why don’t you wait for a KEY reference such as IB / Prior sessions Value, London Low, etc to fail then join? A perspective for y’all 👇
1) You’ll miss the first 30-50p PB because you didn’t catch the swing high. It is better than losing 50-100p stop loss in your quest to catching one. The Math is Mathin’ here!
2) It’s “obvious” when you attempt to secure a swing high, it is for a swing. If so your first “obvious” target will be 6,924 (Gap). Then what difference does it make by being 30-50p late…you’ll secure 100p profit anyway.
3) If you’re really attempting to catch the next swing high, then LEARN the concept of extensions & exhaustions before you attempt one. While you’re at it, being the “smart” trader, you’ll definitely have long runners…because hey who doesn’t like to make money?
#ES | #ES_F | $ES_F | #EdgebyRS - Clarity First / Action Next.
$ES Interaction at the Levels 🎯
Reflective Study: Alpha 👇
We have had consecutive weeks of events since January 26th, and the theme has remained consistent: When events fail to accelerate a trend, short term participants are forced to liquidate.
Fast forward to this past week, both NFP and CPI failed to drive continuation higher, and the result was new lows for the week. As always, the auction provided real time guidance through three recurring elements: Value migration, Event Ranges, and Balance Rules, all unfolding at pre-identified zones, while the LIS Framework and MGI defined execution. Let’s break it down.
Monday’s overnight session found sellers at the Upside Pivot (LIS Short). The London session then converted Friday’s high into resistance, leading to a rollover into 6,924, which aligned with January VAL and Friday’s Upper Distribution. Buyers stepped in there during both London and RTH. ES eventually reclaimed the Upside Pivot 6,974/83 (LIS Long) and printed the high of the day at 7,000.
Key learning: The 6,924 backtest was a clean convert of prior Thursday’s London high, where resistance turned into support, confirming continuation of Friday’s short covering rally. At this stage, the most important observation was whether ES could print a higher high for the week. Failure to do so would question the sustainability of Friday’s rally.
Tuesday’s overnight and RTH session held the Upside Pivot 6,974/83 (LIS Long) and printed a marginal higher high at 7,006, which ultimately failed. The session ended with a sharp spike lower after a lack of traction post IB. A subtle yet important clue emerged: on the second backtest, the Upside Pivot printed a higher low while responsive sellers remained active at YVAH near 7,000. Late in the session, the convert of IBL and the Upside Pivot (LIS Short) led to a rotation back to Friday’s high and Monday’s VAL.
Key learning: Watch for London edges to flip. When they do, it is often the first sign of a potential reversal. Also, sessions tend to consolidate ahead of events. The late day spike was simply value rotation, not directional intent, given the persistent responsive sellers at Monday’s VAH.
Wednesday marked the shift in character. The NFP release failed to accelerate to the upside, with multi session YVAH once again attracting responsive sellers. The breakdown that followed printed a higher low relative to Monday, but the more important development was value migration lower, as Tuesday’s YVAL flipped into Wednesday’s VAH.
Key learning: When events fail to accelerate, short term participants are liquidated. If a prior short covering rally does not attract initiative buyers for two to three sessions, the probability of reversal rises materially. Although Wednesday held Friday’s VAH for the second time, the lack of traction above the Upside Pivot meant validation failed and the odds of downside increased.
Thursday was textbook. ES printed a lower high against Wednesday’s higher low. The confluence was clear. ES failed to reclaim the Upside Pivot, printed a LIS Short, and once again met responsive sellers at Wednesday’s VAH. This triggered a liquidation break that unraveled Friday’s rally and activated a LIS Short at the Weekly Pivot 6,896/6,904, developing into Thursday’s Lower Distribution and completing a full retrace of last Friday’s session.
Key learning: When a rally built on weak structure fails to accelerate, especially despite multiple events, the market often rotates back to the origin. Observe how Period B develops. In this case, it turned 50% of Period A into resistance while aligning with the LIS Short at the Upside Pivot and YVAH.
Friday extended the move lower. Weakness was confirmed early as ES built value inside Thursday’s Lower Distribution. The move was validated by another LIS Short at the Weekly Pivot 6,896/6,904 and a lack of acceleration above the CPI + IB High. Although buyers responded at Weekly Support 6,804/12, they failed to convert the Weekly Pivot.
Key learning: The excess low at 6,808 Balance Top failed to exit Thursday’s Lower Distribution and reclaim Weekly Pivot. When a rally does not change structure, control remains with the prevailing side. That is when you fade the bounce. A strong buyers’ market reclaims levels quickly and shows OTFU or persistent bid. On Friday the opposite occurred to prior Friday, reinforcing seller control.
#ES_F | #ES | #EdgebyRS - Clarity First / Action Next.