Forecast Capital Management

A Global Macro Risk Management Firm Observing the Markets Fractally.

[Forecast Capital Management @ForecastCapMgmt]

We've been involved with precious metals off and on for 25 years. There are times to own them and times to short them. We've rarely seen a more explosive setup as we see today in our opinion. Few of our collegues who were involved in gold in the 2000 or 2008 recessions are currently involved. Stealth bull markets are the best! So here are some thoughts if you care.
A) Silver and the mining stock are MUCH more volatile than gold. Gold is money. Silver and the miners are effectively volatile derivatives of gold.
B) gold maintains and can amplify your net worth when times get tough like the 2000 and 2008 recessions. We think today's economy may result in an even greater dislocation than in 2000 or 2008. Silver and the miners can make you rich(or destroy you too). For example, the HUI which is a miner index went from 39 to 248 from late 2000 to late 2003 for a 600% return in 3 years!!! Or from 194 to 692 from 2008 to 2011 for a 356% return. HUI is at 241 today...imagine if fomo(fear of missing out) got you to buy it at 692 in 2011! If we're right about the coming recession, then these things may go nuts. Btw silver(slv) went from 9.58 to 46.88 from 2009 to 2011...a 489% return. Can this happen again?
C)gld, phys and aaau are decent etfs for buying gold. Slv for Silver and gdx/gdxj for mining companies. Gdxj is especially volatile since they are small cap miners....btw it traded at 166 in 2011 to 38 today! Buying individual mining stocks can be much more lucurative than buying gdx or gdxj. I've used a newsletter called TheHigh tech stratagist put out by @htsfhickey who is very good at buying mining stocks. Don't do this on your own! Mining is a crappy business making individual mining companies very dangerous.
D) Gold is manipulated. There, i said it. That makes it more difficult to trade or own. You will RARELY hear wallstreet tell you to buy it. GOLD is anti establishment. It competes against the us dollar which is the reserve currency. Do you ever think you'll get a call from your Morgan broker telling you he's liquidating your million dollar account and will send you a million dollars worth of gold bars? He/she would loose $15k a year in fees forever! Ain't gonna happen.
E) Be careful allocating to this sector. Sizing is critical. The best service we have found barr none is working with @KeithMcCullough ceo of @Hedgeye . These guys get it. They know how to risk manage this sector. They allocated to gold recently at about $1700 per ounce(currently at $2040) when no one had any interest. BRILLIANT in our opinion.

If this tread gets some interest we'll follow up with more...like etf vs physical, where to buy and safely store this stuff, when to short it, central bank buying, etc.

As always, do your own research.

[Jason C. Hilliard @JayDidder]

In this episode:
*Why high performers feel fragile even when they’re “winning”
*The performance trap (and why it’s so hard to downshift)
*How to rebuild real security by creating separation — emotionally, structurally, and financially
*Why health is infrastructure (and what happens when it breaks)

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https://t.co/dfLeo4TBYm

[🇦🇺Craig Tindale @ctindale]

https://t.co/vWLN07swYq

[Mac10 @SuburbanDrone]

In a timely warning to AI zealots, this past week Cisco - the leading and most valuable stock in Y2K finally reached its Y2K price level.

25 years later.

Only an abject fool thinks this bubble won't end far worse.

[Forecast Capital Management @ForecastCapMgmt]

@Mike_Taylor1972 Mike why just through year end?

[Edward Dowd @DowdEdward]

The Grand Harvest

[Forecast Capital Management @ForecastCapMgmt]

@KeithMcCullough Looks like keith got out at about $52....went up to $53 yesterday....$51 now...not sure worth getting excited over it...but don't forget, some of these miners produce A LOT of copper as byproducts so not sure being out of these names is a good idea imo

[Forecast Capital Management @ForecastCapMgmt]

AI is a game-changer! Former Google CEO Eric Schmidt dives into the rise of non-human intelligence in this TED Talk. 🚀 What’s one way YOU think AI will shape our future? Share below! 👇 Watch: https://t.co/8JGl9eDCcw #AI #TEDTalk #ArtificialIntelligence #Innovation #TechFuture #Leadership #FutureThinking #TechTrends

[Edward Dowd @DowdEdward]

Very interesting gold thread.

[Mac10 @SuburbanDrone]

Today was the highest down volume in Nasdaq history as Tech gets liquidated and probably a few hedge funds as well.

[Edward Dowd @DowdEdward]

In 2000 we had the tech bubble.

In 2008 we had the housing bubble.

Wouldn’t it be a grand idea to combine the two and see what happens?

[Keith McCullough @KeithMcCullough]

Gold vs. Bitcoin

Our #process told you #Quad4 was coming in FEB

That's when you sell Bitcoin and buy-MORE Gold with the proceeds

[Edward Dowd @DowdEdward]

Speculation & food for thought:

What if a large number of these corrupt NGOs were investing in the stock market with the expectation of continued tax payer funding?

What if @Doge has changed those expectations with some even liquidating before they are caught?

What if the NGOs were the price insensitive marginal buyer?

[Edward Dowd @DowdEdward]

$NVDA One of the largest market cap companies beat on top and bottom line after close.

Gross Margins peaked at 79% in April last year. Decelerating ever since. 73.5% this quarter guided to 71% next quarter. Don’t worry though they will go back up! Management says so!

Big Tell in quarter was AR DSOs (Days sales outstanding) were 53 versus range of 35-40 last 4 quarters.

Momentum is rolling and they are extending credit terms to make sales.

Prediction: They will miss next quarter or the one after that is my guess.

No idea what stock does tomorrow but since GMs peaked the stock has gone essentially sideways.

[Forecast Capital Management @ForecastCapMgmt]

RT @DowdEdward: Fake account sorry gang.

[fred hickey @htsfhickey]

Evercore to Apple (investors) rescue! After Apple's stock fell close to $10 yesterday (-$9.61) on truly bad fundamental news and with the stock down 9% year to date, Evercore decided it was time to add the world's highest valued stock to its "Tactical Outperform" list today - to stem the bleeding. Evercore came up with a bunch of lame excuses (the iPhone 17 is coming!), including this doozy: the concern around iPhone weakness "could help lower expectations and enable the stock to work on a weaker than expected guide."

In other words, while Apple's Q4 numbers and current Q1 guidance may be rancid, if the analysts cut their estimates enough before Apple reports on Jan. 30 - Apple may be able to meet the lowered targets and all will be swell - "enabling the stock to work" again.

There was no mention that Apple's stock may be a bit (egregiously) overvalued at a historically high 38 times earnings and 10 times sales on zero revenue growth or worse (possibly negative again).

Evercore and others on Wall St. have been able to get away with this type of garbage "analysis" during the bull market, but it doesn't work during bear markets. It will be interesting to see how this call plays out in coming weeks.
https://t.co/3SvRRiE6tB

[Forecast Capital Management @ForecastCapMgmt]

🚀 Exciting News! Forecast Capital Management now offers exclusive 1031 DST investment opportunities with top-tier sponsors! Discover a tax-efficient way to diversify your portfolio with institutional-grade real estate. Ready to learn more? Let’s connect! #1031Exchange #DST #RealEstateInvesting #TaxStrategy

[David Finch @DavidFi_]

So here is the gold mining industry's AIC - (total costs i.e AISC+ growth capex, G&A, M&A, dividends etc.) vs the gold price. As you can see its been a horrible business, slipping in and out of marginally positive and negative free cash flow over the past 15 years. And suddenly...Boom! Massive positive margin expansion. I'm not sure anyone is really getting this outside the sector specialists. In theory the industry can now, for the first time in living memory, finance reserve replacement and a much higher return of capital to shareholders from FCF.

[Keith McCullough @KeithMcCullough]

BREAKING: Judy Shelton hits half-a-MILLION views for calling money what it is vs. @federalreserve and the Old Wall @judyshel
https://t.co/uhofDD7Hnn

[Kuppy @hkuppy]

New all-time high in $AMRK after a 3-year consolidation.

Where’s my buddy @PatrickCeresna ?? Need his crayons. Wondering if this is bullish…🤣🤞