forecastguy (Jason Cali)

I have no blue check mark, so you know I am real!

[forecastguy (Jason Cali) @forecastguy]

@ryanhanrahan same reason people vote presidents out of office when there is high unemployment, high inflation. when people are generally unhappy, they oppose anything the president touches.

[forecastguy (Jason Cali) @forecastguy]

@ryanhanrahan plus, Nixon himself was unpopular, and during Watergate people generally opposed most of Nixon's policy initiatives.

Technology has changed, daily schedules have changed, schools have changed, people used to let kindergartners walk to the bus stop by themselves in the 70s.

[forecastguy (Jason Cali) @forecastguy]

@ryanhanrahan a lot of things are different. when this was implemented there were lots of other things Nixon did for the energy and inflation/unemployment crisis in the early 70s that were deeply unpopular (e.g. wage freezes, lowering national speed limit.)

[forecastguy (Jason Cali) @forecastguy]

@TheGrainiac You’re talking about Trading Places, right? Where they traded FCOJ instead of liquid orange juice?

Where in the hell is Beeks?

[forecastguy (Jason Cali) @forecastguy]

Narrator: It ended up 111.

[Todd Crawford @tcrawf_nh]

None of our best models are over 110, but incredible day coming tomorrow nonetheless

[forecastguy (Jason Cali) @forecastguy]

@tcrawf_nh ...and Leominster... and Peabody... and Worcester... and Woburn.

[forecastguy (Jason Cali) @forecastguy]

@Chigeorge72 @commoditywx ergo, without any meteorological info at all, the baseline assumption should be that this summer would be 1.44 hotter than the 1981-2010 mean based purely on linear trend.

[forecastguy (Jason Cali) @forecastguy]

@Chigeorge72 @commoditywx It's not 5 years... the climo is between 15 and 45 years old. CONUS summer trend (source NCEI) is 0.48/decade. This means the baseline for this summer is approximately 0.72F hotter than 2010 and 2.16F hotter than 1980.

[forecastguy (Jason Cali) @forecastguy]

@Chigeorge72 @commoditywx Again though, these orange maps are not saying we are going to have a hot summer by 2020s standards. They are saying that this summer will be hotter than those 20-40 years ago. This, of course, is a no brainer and not very useful information.

[forecastguy (Jason Cali) @forecastguy]

@Chigeorge72 @commoditywx ECMWF S5 uses 1993-2016, CANSIPS uses 1990-2020.

[forecastguy (Jason Cali) @forecastguy]

@Chigeorge72 @commoditywx Yes, but the CLIMO (warm/cold) is based on an older and much cooler climate, which is why those maps are always orange.

[Weapon 𝕏 @HellRaz0r1776]

Well, I’ll be damned. It finally happened.

[forecastguy (Jason Cali) @forecastguy]

@TheGrainiac

[forecastguy (Jason Cali) @forecastguy]

@WeatherProf It was cold in the East (for Ontario and Erie), but not far from the long-term average in the Upper Midwest (Superior).

[forecastguy (Jason Cali) @forecastguy]

@wxjerdman KISP and KPVD show 24" in the 8am METARs

[forecastguy (Jason Cali) @forecastguy]

Here’s a close-up:

This was all open water yesterday at 6pm.

@NWSBUFFALO @NWSBinghamton @scotthetsko @TomNiziol @JimCantore

[forecastguy (Jason Cali) @forecastguy]

Canadaigua Lake yesterday afternoon vs this morning.

Very rare for this lake to freeze over.

[forecastguy (Jason Cali) @forecastguy]

Not the greatest shot, but was able to catch a glimpse of the aurora tonight.

[forecastguy (Jason Cali) @forecastguy]

@Fortnit23891742 @NWSBinghamton @NWSBUFFALO Ambient WS 2000

[forecastguy (Jason Cali) @forecastguy]

HEAVY freezing rain rapidly accreting in South Bristol NY

@NWSBinghamton @NWSBUFFALO