Tom

#AFLFantasy armchair pundit, Creator of the AFL Fantasy Formguide and Coach of the Formguide Foxes 🦊🏉📚 AFL Fantasy Formguide content is all posted on IG 👇🏻

[Tom @formguidefoxes]

1 month on; I think it’s solidified in my mind that I will take ‘priced at’ as a guide of a player’s likely breakeven. The core of what I want to assess a player’s value by is what their season price change is; whether I’m getting relative value vs if I started them. #AFLFantasy

[Tom @formguidefoxes]

I’m struggling to word what I’m getting at but I think this is a reasonable attempt. I’m starting to wonder if we are interpreting the ‘priced at’ figures in #AFLFantasy incorrectly. I think the concepts of maintaining price and perceived value could be being conflated.

[Tom @formguidefoxes]

@Merv_Longo There is my answer

[Tom @formguidefoxes]

How did Zorko give up a 50m penalty for sack whacking but finish without a free against #AFLFantasy

[Tom @formguidefoxes]

@Radsalty Interesting ill look into it

[Tom @formguidefoxes]

I’m struggling to word what I’m getting at but I think this is a reasonable attempt. I’m starting to wonder if we are interpreting the ‘priced at’ figures in #AFLFantasy incorrectly. I think the concepts of maintaining price and perceived value could be being conflated.

[Tom @formguidefoxes]

@DCCaterpillars Valid add-on points which I agree with. It’s difficult to allocate so many dollars to a premo when the market requires them to provide so much opposed to cheaper players way overperforming price. Less about the fact they need to score at their priced at figure season long. 👍🏻✅

[Tom @formguidefoxes]

@AnnaWillis Sheezel point in case

[Tom @formguidefoxes]

@Keegs74 Correct

[Tom @formguidefoxes]

@gm_butcher Yeah I did a bit of dabbling in forecasting priced at with magic number relative to end of last year, its a good point

[Tom @formguidefoxes]

@ReegsSF 👍🏻

[Tom @formguidefoxes]

@Fantasy_H2H Yeah when I started to think about it recently it certained changed my fantasy world view. Too much focus is put on priced at for sure.

[Tom @formguidefoxes]

Another example is Bont averaged 111 last year and is $22K cheaper than his starting price but priced at 117. I think the magic number is saying he is priced at that figure to maintain price currently, but it doesn’t mean he needs to avg 117 for the szn to be worth that price.

[Tom @formguidefoxes]

Interesting to put into context how easy of an #AFLFantasy matchup ESS have been (2 games).

Most AVG PTS against by year:
2025: RIC (1670)
2024: RIC (1652)
2023: NTH (1649)
2022: NTH (1624)

ESS are giving up 1905 PTS a week. The 2nd easiest matchup is WBD (1656 PTS).

[Tom @formguidefoxes]

Surprised to see a 701K Dan Houston at only 2% owned a few weeks out from the season. 66 AVG coming off 3 years of 90+ before that. I think his usage rate will go up in his 2nd year at the Pies and his AVG will recover substantially. Is everyone 💤😴💤 on this pick? #AFLFantasy

[Tom @formguidefoxes]

@Lefty113 😂

[Tom @formguidefoxes]

Surprised to see a 701K Dan Houston at only 2% owned a few weeks out from the season. 66 AVG coming off 3 years of 90+ before that. I think his usage rate will go up in his 2nd year at the Pies and his AVG will recover substantially. Is everyone 💤😴💤 on this pick? #AFLFantasy

[Tom @formguidefoxes]

@Slabotage 😁👍🏻

[Tom @formguidefoxes]

@fantasynut_afl Its a good question, I have tried to remove outliers in the past but I’m coming around to the idea that it is to be expected that you might have one really influential or poor qtr in a game, probably too robotic to want players to score evenly across a match

[Tom @formguidefoxes]

Preseason #AFLFantasy game reviews with CBA’s and player notes for all 18 games are all on my Fantasy Formguide IG page 🚀

[Tom @formguidefoxes]

@wembanyanas In Kennedy’s 5 games without Bont he scored below his season AVG and it was the 2nd worst 5 game stretch of his season. I don’t really think Treloar moves the needle much but if he played most of the year I agree he could regress Kennedy a few pts maybe.

[Tom @formguidefoxes]

Finding the Fox Commentator unironically calling him Ned Flanders repeatedly very amusing so I made this #AFLFantasy