AAN

Interested in AI/Semi/Energy
Former Autonomous Driving Engineer
Full-time Dog Walker

[AAN @fortunekeeper_]

Everything I've been pointing at is starting to surface

SK Hynix HBM inspection: x2~3 scale than expected
OSAT fluxless inspection: AVGO, Amkor, ASE — now AMD, SEMCO + maybe Ibiden. Demand running several times above expectations

The company is revising its business plan upward

[AAN @fortunekeeper_]

+++
Samsung foundry 3D AXI mass-production
TSMC 3D AXI & HBM Inspection under qualification
Invenctec SMT(for NVDA): also demand multiplies above forecast.

Showtime begins.

[AAN @fortunekeeper_]

Everything I've been pointing at is starting to surface

SK Hynix HBM inspection: x2~3 scale than expected
OSAT fluxless inspection: AVGO, Amkor, ASE — now AMD, SEMCO + maybe Ibiden. Demand running several times above expectations

The company is revising its business plan upward

[AAN @fortunekeeper_]

Pemtron confirms it's in active talks with new customers for HBM & DRAM inspection tools.
Read between the lines: new customer = likely Micron.
The single-customer story is quietly becoming a multi-customer one.
(Source: etoday, 2026.06.11)

[AAN @fortunekeeper_]

Just hit the tape:

Hanmi Semiconductor — ₩44.2bn TC Bonder 4.5 ‘Griffin’ order from SK Hynix for HBM4 mass production. (2026.06.08)

Bonders first. Inspection next.

This is the sequence I’ve been pointing at. Pemtron is the inspection.

[AAN @fortunekeeper_]

The best chance ever to buy K-Semi supply chain stocks.

Not only Pemtron
But almost every stock in Korea

Panic Sell + Leverage Capitulation
AI thesis still strong.
CAPEX cycle just begin

no pain, no gain

[AAN @fortunekeeper_]

I'm convinced Pemtron delivers a monster H2 this year.
And here's the kicker — OSAT fluxless inspection demand is running several times above the company's own forecast. Upside they didn't even price in.

Main catalyst in June = SK Hynix capex deployment for Vera Rubin.

[AAN @fortunekeeper_]

Plenty of Korean semi supply-chain names will see earnings estimates revised up.
But only one combines the steepest upward revision with the deepest market neglect — not even classified as a semi stock on Yeouido (Korea's Wall St).
That's Pemtron.

[AAN @fortunekeeper_]

The best time to buy is when everyone’s scared.

And stocks whose earnings estimates are rising while the price falls? Almost none exist. Actually — none.

[AAN @fortunekeeper_]

K-Inspection stocks: (Cap / 27E OP)
SMT → Koh Young: 2.3T / 70-80bn
Optical → Park Systems: 1.9T / 70-80bn
HBM probe → Techwing: 1.8T / n/a
Substrate → Gigavis: 1.8T / 70bn

SMT+Optic+HBM+OSAT 430bn / 100bn.
Not saying the others are overvalued.
Pemtron: Dirt cheap.

[AAN @fortunekeeper_]

Harsh week, but some Good news
Pemtron IR — the pipeline beyond Hynix HBM4:
→ SEMCO now testing flux (AVGO, Amkor, ASE, AMD) → Micron HBM qual this year → TSMC: one of AXI / 8800WI / flux → Inventec SMT full-capacity

The non-Hynix legs are filling in.

[AAN @fortunekeeper_]

Patience is bitter, but its fruit is sweet.

[AAN @fortunekeeper_]

P&T6 mass PO just started
The order is always the same:
→ Bonders first → Inspection second → Materials third
HBM4 mass production PO cycle just kicked off.
TC bonders going out now.
Inspection: Pemtron is next.

[AAN @fortunekeeper_]

Blackhole

No country for sub-value chain

[AAN @fortunekeeper_]

@aleabitoreddit KQ 168360. not related to 800VDC, but equip evolution, Now $300M, potential to be $3B. FY27 OP est. over $10M

[AAN @fortunekeeper_]

Stretch math.
Company FY27 unofficial commentary: ₩250b revenue.
Implied mix: SMT ~₩100b (40%) Semi ~₩150b (60%)
Plug 5-Q solved coefficients: GPM = 0.40·44 + 0.60·71 = 60.2%GP — SG&A ~₩62b = OP ₩89b → OPM 35.6%
That's ~28x FY25 OP. In 2 years.
Mix and volume multiply.

[AAN @fortunekeeper_]

One number Korean market isn't pricing yet:
Pemtron Semi-segment GPM ≈ 71%
Pemtron SMT-segment GPM ≈ 44%
Same factory. Same SG&A. Same R&D. Just different products.
Semi mix in 12 months: 15% → 26% (4Q25 spiked to 48%). This is a structural reprice in real time.

[AAN @fortunekeeper_]

Hanmi: a volume story
Pemtron: a mix story
Volume rerates 2-3x. Mix rerates 5-10x — because margin and revenue compound.
Every catalyst (P&T6, P&T7, Broadcom fluxless, Micron MARS, TSMC AXI) pushes Semi share higher.
Semi 62% (FY27) → OPM 30%+. 1Q is the floor, not the ceiling.