M

Not financial advice. Just my opinion.

[M @four3_m]

@AdamSmith_AK @justfactstruth Makes a lot of sense to me. And if AI buildout disappoints Power could be a zero. I’m an owner of the stock so hoping that’s not the case. Fair value probably $250-280 with little or no contribution from Power.

[M @four3_m]

@incrementalROI @justfactstruth Good point. But what is FTAI's AP free cash flow margin vs those peers? D&A is a real expense since they have to buy these engines to grow (SCI partially solves that problem I guess) Again, I still struggle with maintenance capex for FTAI AP.

[M @four3_m]

@incrementalROI @justfactstruth Yes, there is more value-add than my oversimplification...but at the end of the day used engines are their feedstock. My point is that using a WWD, HEI, TDG multiple on all of AP is probably too generous.

[M @four3_m]

@calvinfroedge @GrainGuy5 If anything goes right with the ag cycle $60+ EBITDA and 9x multiple...$15 stock price.

[M @four3_m]

@calvinfroedge @GrainGuy5 With you in $AVD. Total shit co but huge upside potential. Priced like it’s going BK but it’s not. Now trading at 5.5x trough EBITDA. Chems typically trade for 7-9x EBITDA. Roll forward the model one year: $55mm fwd EBITDA, $150mm net debt...at 7x that's a $7.50 stock.

[M @four3_m]

$AVD - 1Q solid progress on simplification plans while the cycle is bouncing along the bottom. Committed to $600m rev. and 13% EBITDA margin by ‘28 = 80m EBITDA. $195m net debt today, will decline to $120m by ‘28, so the stock is trading for 2.6x ‘28 EBITDA. Should trade for 7-9x

[M @four3_m]

@cleanmoney86 @dburner996 Early signs of a turn positive but those dynamics aren’t showing up in their financials yet. The stock is trading for a low multiple on depressed earnings. Micro cap stock now so no one cares.

[M @four3_m]

@cleanmoney86 @dburner996 Big cyclical downturn that they managed horribly. Wasted significant capital on tech that didn’t work. Product recalls. Overall bad management and bad balance sheet. Toxic recipe for the stock. Much of that is in the past. Option like equity return if the cycle turns.

[M @four3_m]

@zerohedge If a new ag cycle is starting (positive supply and demand factors) look to beaten down ag chems - $AVD trading like no equity value left after a costly refi but in a normal environment easily see $8 stock. $15+ in an ag upcycle. Trades for $2 today. No issues servicing debt imo

[M @four3_m]

$AVD Now trading at 5.5x trough EBITDA. Chems typically trade for 7-9x EBITDA. Roll forward the model one year: $55mm fwd EBITDA, $150mm net debt...at 7x that's a $7.50 stock ($2.70 today). Upcycle $60+ EBITDA and 9x multiple...$15 stock price.

[M @four3_m]

$AVD Disappointing 4Q amid a still challenging ag industry. Cash flow weaker as fewer farmers pre-bought crop chems, leading to a costly refi. But, debt-reduction options exist for the next cycle turn. See them generating its entire market cap in FCF over the next four years

[M @four3_m]

@Stockspy1 Interesting set up. From a fundamental perspective, ag chem cyclical is at a bottom and turning, new mgmt is streamlining the business, and the valuation is low on depressed earnings. Look for new credit facility soon - once that’s done, clear path to a double+. $AVD

[M @four3_m]

@resourcebull $AVD - new mgmt getting back to basics. Bottom of Ag Chem cycle. Refi credit facility need and see no reason why they can't get that done. No sell side coverage. Could see $55mm EBITDA in '26, $30mm FCF. Clear path to $10 stock price when refi overhang is removed.

[M @four3_m]

Specialty Chem stocks typically trade for 9-12x EBITDA. Call it 10x $87mm of EBITDA = $870mm long term EV. Take out about 70mm of debt to get $800mm market cap ($145mm cap today)

Not financial advice. Just my opinion.

[M @four3_m]

$AVD

2x upside over the next 12 to 18 months - simple mean-reversion and new (better) management

4x upside over ~3 years as the company reaches long-term margin targets (15% EBITDA vs 8% in 2025)

[M @four3_m]

2026 - Ag chem destocking / downcycle coming to an end. New CEO focused on streamlining the business.
EBITDA: $57mm (4.9x)
FCF: $1.00/share (20% yield)
Year End Leverage: 1.7x

2028 (when they reach LT margin goals)
EBITDA: $87mm (2.3x)
FCF: $1.70/share (35% yield) Leverage: <1x