Frances Smith

[Frances Smith @francessmith]

Resurrecting this thread for purely selfish reasons

[Frances Smith @francessmith]

Starting a thread of traditional Christmas songs today on St Cecilia's day, to give you all time to learn them.

Shirley and Dolly first
https://t.co/j5kJJdQRWW

[Dan Neidle @DanNeidle]

Let’s welcome into the world the UK’s new 53% tax rate, for pensioners earning between £12,570 and £13,037:

[Chris Bayliss @baylissbaghdad]

None of the people involved with drafting these new rules have ever thought about income as anything other than a regular paycheck that comes in equal monthly installments.

[Paul Johnson @PJTheEconomist]

Mindblowing chart from OBR. In 2029 real household disposable income per person expected to be just 1% higher than in 2019. What an unbelievably awful decade. It used to grow by 2%+ every year, not 1% in 10 years.

[Frances Smith @francessmith]

@Scappaticci777 @Joe_Valachi777 @confidencenac They're not claiming to be members of the official opposition though are they.

[Frances Smith @francessmith]

FFS Conservatives are so trivial. Reform are appointing THEIR shadow Armed Forces Minister. Tories don't have exclusive rights to the word shadow

[Olivia @xraygal245]

FYI @reformparty_uk we already have a Shadow Armed Forces Minister, I should know, I’m married to him !

Still, it’s nice of you to finally notice defence exists.

[Stuart @StuartMaggs]

The new changes to drag forward income tax charges mean that many if not most people will be paying income tax on money they haven't earned yet.

Very few business have 1/12 of their profit available to distribute in April. Even if it's quarterly, how many businesses have 1/4 of their annual profit in the bank by the end of June?

If the Treasury knew anything about seasonality or billing cycles, they'd never have proposed this change.

[Stuart @StuartMaggs]

@KanishkaNarayan @JohnHealey_MP @dantomlinsonmp @LucyRigby @hmtreasury This is not true. The Founders Relief is, on the Treasury's own figures, going to impact barely a few hundred people every year. It is a niche irrelevancy to British business.

[Paul Johnson @PJTheEconomist]

That was a pretty small Budget in terms of fiscal scale, but there are 98 policy measures enumerated in the key table of costed policy decisions. Does anyone know if that's a record?

[Frances Smith @francessmith]

Why does Burnham look so miserable after this joke?

[Politics UK @PolitlcsUK]

🚨 WATCH: Kemi Badenoch responds to John Healey's Budget

"The Prime Minister came in promising to reverse 40 years of neoliberalism. Instead, we got 4p off gherkins"

#Budget

[Christian May @ChristianJMay]

It's a soup of subsidies, schemes, reliefs, new quangos and tax complication

[Frances Smith @francessmith]

@Joe_Valachi777 @confidencenac They can call themselves that outside parliament and you can't stop them. For god's sake stop whining, are you another Tory trying to enforce rules that are outside your remit? What a bossy little party you are.

[Daniel Cremin - Right Sharp Substack author @DanielCreminGB]

Quite. One @RaheemKassam and @Arron_banks might want to consider.

If the British legacy media are going to adopt the tactics of the left leaning US news networks with these "guilt by association" struggle session question tactics why should they not also face these questions about their own decisions to associate with particular organisations and individuals?

[🇬🇧UKJ0N🇬🇧 @ukJ0N]

Nigel Farage & Robert Jenrick with a full Q&A from the Press following John Healey's Autumn Budget

Betcha John Healey doesn't face a no holds barred Q&A from the media hacks today, not even the friendly ones!

@RobertJenrick @Nigel_Farage

[Frances Smith @francessmith]

The squeezed middle will not be happy, which benefits Reform

[Luke Tryl @LukeTryl]

🧵In the Budget one of the govt's risks comes from the 'squeezed middle' who feel they're working hard, but don't get any support. Labour leads with the most comfortable at one end & those who can only just/cant afford costs at other. But Reform still leads with the middle group

[Nigel Farage @Nigel_Farage]

These are the stats John Healey doesn’t want you to read.

Unemployment will rise to 5% in 2027.

The tax burden is going up AGAIN to the highest since WW2.

By 2031 we’ll be spending £160bn/year on debt interest alone – up £36bn/year.

Borrowing forecasts for the next 5 years have risen £65bn since March.

Households will be worse off in every single year of the five-year forecast than they were in March.

It’ll take until 2029 to get back to 2019 levels of prosperity.

Growth will be abysmal. GDP per capita grows less than 1% in 2027. It’ll peak at less than 2% per year, despite the AI revolution.

The national debt will stay above 95% of GDP.

We are on a fiscal knife-edge. Britain is Broke. Britain needs Reform.

[David | Fink | Markets Talk, We Translate @Fink_Money]

🇬🇧 The OBR just dropped 200 pages on Healey's first Budget.

I read it so you don't have to.

Tax is at a record 37.9% of GDP by 2027-28, past the old high of 37.2%.

Then it climbs every single year to 38.6%.

Frozen thresholds are doing way too much to workers since they get a pay rise, hand more of it over.

1.8x the national minimum wage now classes you as a higher tax rate payer - what the fuck?

Borrowing @ £133bn this year. In March they said £115bn. Seven months later it's £18bn worse. And it's higher than March in every year of the forecast because neither the OBR nor treasury has a clue what they’re doing.

Debt interest at £39bn in 2019-20.

£109bn last year 😩

£160bn by 2031-32 😩😩£15bn of this year's bill is extra bc inflation's pushing up index linked gilts, and we know the uk has a structural inflation problem, partly due to the relationship between treasury and BoE.

Headroom is £14.5bn, down from £21.7bn at the last Budget.

Keep the fuel duty freeze going and it's £10.2bn.

The OBR gives Healey a 56% chance of hitting his OWN FUCKING rule.

Debt will peak at 97.3% of GDP, still 95.6% in 2031-32. Five years and it barely moves which is completely against his fiscal demands.

How it affects you?

Growth 1% next year with gdp per capita basically the same as it has been since 2019

Inflation 3.4% when March said 2%.

Zero real pay growth in 2027.

Living standards in 2030-31?

Just 2% above pre-pandemic.

But don't worry. You're getting a £100 council tax rebate.

Jesus Christ.

[Nailcote Hall @NailcoteHall]

There are thousands more of us that are substantial employers who are feeling shattered by @andyburnham & @JohnHealey_MP Budget today - all we have is more costs added to our businesses for next year and no ‘breathing space’ at all !! More costs added to ‘cost of living’ prices & ‘costs of doing business’ up with more likely to be added to the unemployment level as a result of this feeble action Sacha ? Our Hospitality Sector has been very badly let down today so please don’t try to make out that we’ve had any really substantial help NOT even the young people job wrecking NI thresholds etc ! @allen_m_simpson @fsb_policy @MickKill @EmmaLewell @Caterertweets @CB_Hotels @Benleo @edballs @bbclaurak @piersmorgan @Iromg

[Douglas McWilliams @DMcWilliams_UK]

Looking at the detail, Budget raises taxes on business by £6.5 billion by 2031/32, equiv to 1.5 percentage point rise in corporation tax. About half comes from so-called modernisation of the tax system, the rest from deliberate tax rises. Detail to follow from @TheGrowthComm

[🇬🇧UKJ0N🇬🇧 @ukJ0N]

🔥🔥🔥

The Guardian tried to trap Nigel Farage with a question about Tommy Robinson's conviction.

Farage went above and beyond what was required and said that he does not tell Reform voters who they are allowed to support or reject and went even further stating that the conviction of Tommy Robinson on those charges is wrong.

@Nigel_Farage

[Gully Foyle #UKTrade @TerraOrBust]

The OBR analysis of the budget is reliant on revenues from north sea oil, that the Government haven't signed off on.

So the figures need to go straight in the bin.

[Robert Colvile @rcolvile]

The changes to self-assessment taxation exemplify a system that's run for the convenience of the Treasury/HMRC, not the self-employed, sole traders and small businesses. That has to change.