DatBoii

[PvP Terminal @pvpterminal]

After more than a year in development, we are live!

PvP TradFi is a modular, low-latency news-trading platform built for active traders who want crypto-grade UX with real TradFi execution.

Trade the @TreeNewsToken feed alongside hand-curated sources and AI-generated summaries designed for market impact.

[Tur @trdrtur]

As per popular request i’ve now launched
https://t.co/mGtBuww60k

Check it out and let me know if you’d like to see any more features. Will keep cooking on this as i use it as my main dashboard to pick trades off of.

[Skely @123skely]

> Hold Algo-Stable backed by large trading firm Jump.

>it goes to 0$

>Run Delta neutral strategy to "safely" collect funding.

> Get ADL'd. Lose all your Money.

>Run low Leverage long on decentralized perps exchange to be “safe”.

>Scam Wick. Get liquidated.

>Hold stables in trusted 2021 defi project.

>It gets hacked.

> Send funds to centralized exchange.

> Exchange goes bankrupt. Money gone.

> Make money on new centralized exchange.

> Exchange freezes then steals the funds.

> Try to claim airdrop.

> Get drained.

>Put funds on Hardware wallet.

>Lose seed phrase. Money gone.

>Trade on phone.

>Sim swapped.

Hmm I wonder why people say making money in crypto is hard?!?

[DatBoii @fre3zzy63]

@Irresponsibly_B 4

[Ari @daaniyaan]

Market has changed. does anyone remember those near perfect BTC book statistics I was posting back in the day? They haven't appeared in over a year. The edges you have in the market aren't going to be here forever. That's why they say the edge is the trader, not the tool.

[Vida @Vida_BWE]

- 新闻交易
- 资费套利
- 参与Pump、Plasma这种交易所白送钱但需抢活动

对于《管自己的钱》的大资金玩家来说一年整个portfolio以0%回撤增长30%的性价比高于以最大20%的回撤增长50%。

对于像strategy、sbet这种《管别人钱》的大资金玩家则反之，他们不怕亏，反正亏的不是自己的钱，赚的是aum，所以他们对于回撤什么的就不怎么在意，不看价格就是买

[DatBoii @fre3zzy63]

@chop324 Is this relative to news publish time, or just the execution?

[DatBoii @fre3zzy63]

@thedefivillain btw, velo has the aggregated premium

[Game @game_for_one]

It’s Not the News: It’s the Reaction

Some notes on how I think about market reactions and when to make a bet:

1. Reaction > Headline
– Good news, market sells off → weak.
– Bad news, market rallies → strong.
– Markets don’t move on the news itself, they move on surprise.
– Most events are anticipated and priced in - what matters is what happens after.

2. Ask Before You Bet:
– Has the move already happened?
– How many people are left to act on this idea?
– Is this positioning already crowded, or just getting started?

3. Absence of Reaction = Signal
– You don’t always need a major move.
– If the market should have broken and didn’t → strength.
– If it should have ripped and stalled → weakness.
– What doesn’t happen can tell you more than what does.

4. Reading Tone
– Strong markets absorb bad news.
– Weak markets fade good news.
– Assets that hold up during stress tend to lead when the pressure lifts.
– Buy strength. Sell weakness.

5. Watch Correlations
– In highly correlated markets, divergence is a tell.
– If BTC, ETH, SOL are pumping and one starts lagging - pay attention.
– Correlation breakdowns often mark turning points or rotations.

6. Make the Bet
– Real edge comes when the reaction contradicts the expected outcome.
– Market tone > market thesis.
– Don’t trade the story - trade the response.

[DatBoii @fre3zzy63]

@Mengqin_yi nice

[Conor @jconorgrogan]

There are 36.4+ million crypto tokens today. We are on pace to have 100 million tokens by the end of 2025

To put in perspective, the 2017-2018 "alt season" had just <3000 tokens and the 2013-2014 alt season had <500 tokens

[DatBoii @fre3zzy63]

@thedefivillain i just assumed he's gonna use the coin to accept bribes.

[DatBoii @fre3zzy63]

@lookonchain @tayvano_ money laundering probably

[Metaquant @QuantMeta]

Not everyone will make it this cycle.

You need to shift your mindset and detach from the crowd.

Coinbase app ranking will not tell you when the top is in.

Start thinking differently.

“When a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure.”

In other words, when we set one specific goal, people will tend to optimize for that objective regardless of the consequences. This leads to ignoring other equally important factors of a situation.

Furthermore, let me tell you that most of the top signals mentioned on CT won't work this time.

What was an obvious top signal in 2017 wasn't in 2021, and the same goes for 2024-25.

We’re moving towards the right curve of the adoption rate, and now all retail knows about crypto - some heard about it in 2017, and then almost everyone heard about it in 2021.

Don't mix the signs of adoption with top signals. Don’t let the PTSD ruin your fun.

Another point to address is the shift of influence - BlackRock & Co. controls Bitcoin now.

They are the major ETF providers and own shares of each other. So, they control the sentiment around BTC now.

And they also own all the media platforms. They can literally shape the narrative as they want.

Let me re-phrase it like this:

If most of this run-up is driven by institutional bids, why would retail indicators be relevant?

The indicator for this cycle will come from the people who haven’t been onboarded yet.

Yes, It can be retail who still haven't touched crypto - "late majority" and "laggards" - but you gotta think on a bigger scale.

Sovereign Wealth Funds

Think of those countries with a sovereign wealth fund starting to diversify in $BTC. Some already invest in stocks, so it might be possible to see this scenario.

• Saudi Arabia - $400 billion
• Abu Dhabi - $800 billion
• China - $1 trillion
• Norway - $1 trillion
• Australia - $150 billion
• Qatar - $300 billion
• Singapore - $500 billion

Corporate Treasuries

We have already seen this in 2021 with Tesla purchasing $BTC and, more recently, with Reddit disclosing some of its crypto holdings.

The trend is just starting. Once you see daily headlines of companies diversifying their assets into
,it might be rational to start derisking.

Stock Market IPOs

Coinbase IPO in 2021 was the first major crypto company to be listed in the stock market. We might see this time tens of crypto companies doing their IPOs, and at some point, one listing will mark the top.

Over-Leveraging

Big hedge funds, companies, and maybe even small countries over-leveraging in the final stages of the bull run and getting rekt could be another scenario we might see this cycle.

Rehypothecation Crisis

The next Luna-type of collapse might come from the restaking sector and kickstart the bear market. It seems like everyone is overlooking the huge consequences of a depeg or slashing event in this sector.

Gold Reserves

The ultimate ultra top signal could be governments diversifying a small % of their gold reserves into Bitcoin - the "digital gold".

Some additional minor signals

Low-Income Countries Workers Shortage

Another big signal is when low-income countries will have a shortage of workers because these are making $300 to $600 a month mapping the roads with hivemapper or other DePIN projects and earning a higher salary than what they'd normally get.

Happened at a small scale last cycle with Axie and StepN. Will happen at a larger scale this cycle.

Las Vegas Sphere

Time Square was full of shit memecoins in 2021. The Las Vegas Sphere with crypto ads running on it for weeks straight will be the version of this cycle.

Funding Rounds

A pretty secure signal again will be checking the volumes of VC investments. Funding rounds skyrocketing and, maybe overpassing tradFi ones might be the indicator again to start exiting.

“The financial markets generally are unpredictable. So that one has to have different scenarios... The idea that you can actually predict what's going to happen contradicts my way of looking at the market.

- George Soros.

[DatBoii @fre3zzy63]

@LogonYiYi even coinmarketcap still has the wrong coin for velodrome

[Game @game_for_one]

@Coinbase make GOAT great again, Christmas present for us.

[DatBoii @fre3zzy63]

@LogonYiYi same situation. other withdrawals wasnt working except for TRX
https://t.co/LzsgmIbyrU

[DatBoii @fre3zzy63]

@LogonYiYi reminds me of when FTX went down

[DatBoii @fre3zzy63]

@SolidTradesz nah, wats the ticker was 2023.
whats the CA is 2024

[DatBoii @fre3zzy63]

@Vida_BWE 👑