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Ray Dalio says we are in a bubble, but this doesn't mean that the market will go down.
Something should prick the bubble to cause a crash.
What generally pricks bubbles is monetary tightening, and we aren't getting it soon.
Here is what I believe will happen:
The next Fed chair will aggressively cut rates. Credit will become abundant and the economy will start to overheat toward the end of next year.
By then, the inflationary effects of the tariffs will have fully kicked in, and inflation will start moving higher.
At that point, the Fed will start increasing rates, credit will tighten, and cash needs will drive money out of liquid assets. This will be what pricks the bubble, and we'll get something like the 2022 correction.
So, in short, the market is indeed expensive, but it'll likely get worse before we have a crash, as money supply will increase further before it starts to shrink.
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