Adventure Capitalist

Livepool F.C.

[Tesla Europe, Middle East & Africa @teslaeurope]

FSD Supervised now approved in Denmark 🇩🇰

Rollout will begin soon

[Shaun Maguire @shaunmmaguire]

SpaceX just quietly amended its S-1 announcing another mega deal

$920M/month from Google from October 2026 through June 2029

With both parties being able to terminate the agreement with 90 days notice

Things are getting exciting 🚀

[Palantir @PalantirTech]

“Pointing an LLM at hundreds of disconnected, ungoverned databases gets you a system that hallucinates, is insecure, and unauditable. For something as consequential as our nation’s agricultural data, that is not just useless — it’s dangerous. The Ontology has been the key to delivering AI-enabled technology to every farmer in the country.”

At AIPCon 10, the USDA demonstrates how the Ontology now underpins national food supply security.

[Peter H. Diamandis, MD @PeterDiamandis]

Hot take: Universities charge $300,000 for a degree that teaches you skills any LLM can do for free. At some point we need to have an honest conversation about whether higher education is the greatest individuals misallocation of capital in recent history.

[Ashok Elluswamy @aelluswamy]

Unsupervised Robotaxi now available in the greater Austin area.

[Ryan Detrick, CMT @RyanDetrick]

Want to make a bear mad?

Tell them that after April & May gain more than 10% (like 2026 will), the rest of the year has gained double digits each time and been up an average of nearly 19% the rest of the year.

[Sawyer Merritt @SawyerMerritt]

Morgan Stanley in new $TSLA note:

"Per our assumptions, Tesla owners are now driving ~26.7M miles/day with FSD (up from 18.5M miles/day in April). We continue to track this metric as it has bearings on FSD adoption (both via new subscribers and existing subscribers using the technology more frequently) which at a ~90% GM can uplift profitability and give credence to Tesla's autonomous tech as it scales its unsupervised robotaxi fleet.

Our normalized data from the latest NHTSA release implies an improvement in Robotaxi miles/accident, based on consistent modeling assumptions across periods. Our Alphawise data shows increased hiring in northern metro areas for 'Al Safety Operators' - a sign that Tesla is gearing up to expand robotaxi operations."

[Elon Musk @elonmusk]

As the recently expanded partnership with @AnthropicAI demonstrates, @SpaceX is offering AI compute as a service at significant scale.

We are in discussions with other companies to do the same.

Over time, especially with orbital data centers, we expect to serve AI at extremely high scale.

[Gene Munster @munster_gene]

Physical AI & $NVDA

As in each of the past five quarters, Jensen reminds investors that physical AI will become a major driver in the next several years, but it has not yet started.

My take: Investors are under appreciating the impact of physical AI. This year, FSD will account for about 0.3% of total passenger miles driven in the U.S., and autonomous ride-hailing will account for about 2% of rideshare. Cars are one part of physical AI.

[Tesla Europe, Middle East & Africa @teslaeurope]

FSD Supervised now rolling out to Teslas in Lithuania 🇱🇹!

Making European roads safer, one by one

[Nick Timiraos @NickTimiraos]

Bessent: After "one or two more hot inflation numbers...I think we're going to see substantial disinflation."

"I was never on team transient during Covid, and a lot of that had to do with what happened with very expansionary fiscal policy that was financed by debt purchases from the Central Bank, kind of an experiment in modern monetary theory that caused inflation. And, but here, I firmly believe that nothing is more transient than a supply shock. And we can, we can look through that because before the Iranian conflict began, core inflation was coming down. So I think core inflation will continue coming down. We’ll get to the other side of this, and I don’t know whether it’s a few days or a few weeks, and energy inflation will come back down. And we’ve got the start of the Warsh Fed…. And I think that he’s going to bring an open mind to this. And I actually think he’s going to be in a very good position, because we may get a series, one or two more hot inflation numbers, but then I think we’re going to see substantial disinflation.

[Cern Basher @CernBasher]

The human won: 12,924 vs 12,734 packages over a ten hour shift.

Aime said that he was just another 30 mins away from needing to quit - his back and forearms are sore.

The human goes home to sleep and the Bot (Bob) continues to work.

[Adventure Capitalist @freeter4ever]

@SVTrivo 그나마 Sofi가 좋은 걸로 알고 있습니다. 작년 FIG IPO때도 그렇고 그나마 몇 안되는 개인들�� 공모가에 참여하게 해 주니까요. 참고로 저는 주 계좌는 IBKR, 은퇴계좌는 Schwab, Sofi는 개인 비자금 굴리는 계좌로 쓰고 있습니다.

[Adventure Capitalist @freeter4ever]

@SVTrivo Sofi에서 받았습니다. IBKR, Charles Schwab는 없더라고요.

[Tesla @Tesla]

Tesla Vision allows us to deploy airbags up to 70 milliseconds earlier if your Tesla detects an unavoidable collision

This can be the difference between serious injury & walking away from a crash

[Jamin Ball @jaminball]

Some rough math! (All napkin math...)

Assume Colossus 1 has 220k GPUs
Assume 150k H100s, 50k H200s, 20k GB200s
Pricing Assumptions:
- $2.30 / hour for H100s
- $2.60 / hour for H200s
- $5 / hour for GB200s
- blended rental rate across the entire fleet of $2.60 / hour

Assume it's all take-or-pay style deals (you pay for 24x365 usage)

This translates to ~$5b of annual rev to Xai. We have a new neocloud!

On top of that - on recent Dwarkesh podcast, Dario ran through some napkin math on unit economics (he framed it all as industry math vs Anthropic specific - which is important, he wasn't disclosing anything Anthropic specific).

What he mentioned was take $100b of compute spend (he just picked a round number). There will be a mix shift of that spend between training and inference. Skew too much on training and you don't generate enough revenue. Skew too heavy on inference and you kneecap future R&D progress. He thought the industry is currently 50/50 on training / inference of compute spend. He said as in industry, could turn that $50b inference spend into $150b of revenue (called out these are most likely the unit economics of the industry in 1-2 years)

So taking this back to the Xai deal. Under above assumptions, Anthropic paying $5b / year. Let's say they turn that into $15b / year in rev (60-70% gross margin)

Win win!!

[Emmanuel – Big Tech & AI Investor @EmmanuelInvest]

🚨 $CPNG Q1 2026 Earnings
Top-line growth continues…
but profitability took a sharp hit 👀

📊 KEY METRICS (Q1 2026)
🔹 Total Net Revenues: $8.50B (+8% YoY) 🟢
🔹 Product Commerce Revenues: $7.18B (+4% YoY) 🟢
🔹 Developing Offerings Revenues: $1.33B (+28% YoY) 🟢
🔹 Gross Profit: $2.30B (-1% YoY) | Margin: 27.0% (-228 bps) 🔴
🔹 Adj. EBITDA: $29M (0.3% margin, -449 bps YoY) 🔴
🔹 Net Loss: $266M (-$0.15 EPS) 🔴
🔹 Product Commerce Active Customers: 23.9M (+2% YoY) 🟢
👉 Core takeaway:

Steady revenue growth led by Developing Offerings, but significant margin compression and return to losses
________________________________________

📈 GROWTH ENGINE (CORE STORY)

🟢 Product Commerce still the core (84% of revenue)
🟢 Developing Offerings exploding (+28%): Eats, Play, international, etc.
🟢 Net revenues per active customer up 2–3% (constant currency)
🟢 Rocket Delivery + ecosystem expansion
👉 This is:

Korea’s dominant e-commerce + multi-vertical tech platform
________________________________________

🚀 STRATEGIC MOVES

🟢 Repurchased 20.4M shares for $391M in Q1
🟢 Board approved additional $1B buyback authorization
🟢 Heavy investment in Developing Offerings (Eats, streaming, fintech)
🟢 Continued fulfillment & logistics expansion
👉 Impact:

Aggressive capital return while betting big on new growth vectors
________________________________________

⚡ WHAT’S HAPPENING?

• Mature Product Commerce growing steadily but facing margin pressure
• High-growth Developing Offerings scaling fast but still deeply unprofitable
• Macro + investment cycle weighing on near-term results
👉 This is:
Growth investment phase with clear tension between current profitability and future scale
________________________________________

📉 PROFITABILITY (PRESSURED)

🔻 Gross margin down 228 bps to 27.0%
🔻 Operating loss of $242M (vs +$154M profit last year)
🔻 Adj. EBITDA margin collapsed to 0.3% (from 4.8%)
🔻 Developing Offerings EBITDA loss widened to $329M
👉 Translation:

Revenue growing, but cost structure and investments are hitting the bottom line hard
________________________________________

📅 OUTLOOK

No explicit full-year guidance provided in the release. Management continues to prioritize long-term ecosystem expansion and market leadership.
________________________________________

🧠 WHAT’S ACTUALLY WORKING

🟢 Strong momentum in Developing Offerings (+28%)
🟢 Customer base still growing (23.9M active)
🟢 Healthy cash position + aggressive buybacks
🟢 Dominant position in Korean e-commerce
________________________________________

⚠️ WEAK SPOTS

🔻 Sharp gross margin contraction
🔻 Significant profitability decline across the board
🔻 Developing Offerings remain a big cash burn
🔻 TTM free cash flow down sharply to $301M
👉 Still:

Proven scale player, but margin recovery is now critical
________________________________________

🧠 MARKET SIGNAL

👉 This is a mature high-growth e-commerce / tech platform
• Dominant in home market
• Diversifying aggressively into new verticals
• Balancing growth, investment, and shareholder returns
________________________________________

🔥 BULL vs BEAR

🟢 Bull Case

• Developing Offerings reach profitability inflection
• Product Commerce margins stabilize/expand
• Buybacks + strong cash flow support valuation
• Becomes the “Amazon of Asia” with multiple high-growth engines
🔴 Bear Case

• Margin pressure persists longer than expected
• Developing Offerings losses keep widening
• Macro slowdown in Korea hits consumption
• Capital allocation questioned if profitability doesn’t rebound
________________________________________

💭 CONCLUSION

$CPNG delivered solid revenue growth with strength in new segments…
but faces a clear near-term profitability challenge as it invests for the next phase of scale.
________________________________________

👀 KEY QUESTION

Can Coupang stabilize margins in Product Commerce while successfully scaling Developing Offerings toward profitability?

[mon @moninvestor]

$IREN "NVIDIA has named Mirantis as one of only three founding ISV partners in its NVIDIA AI Cloud Ready initiative. IREN, Mirantis, and NVIDIA represent exactly the combination that initiative was designed for."

I’ve said this before that dilution can be accretive when it is used effectively. Today’s acquisition is a clear example of management using dilution effectively to compound shareholder value.

Note that this transaction represents only a small portion of the outstanding ATM.

Very much looking forward to the earnings.

[Jonborica @jonborica]

쿠팡이 원투쓰리 펀치를 맞고 강냉이가 빠진 사이, 풍선 효과로 네이버 쇼핑이 재미를 보고 있었습니다.

그런데 최근에는 쿠팡의 묻지마 무료 반품과 빠른 배송에 익숙해진 소비자들이 다시 쿠팡으로 돌아가는 흐름도 보이고 있다고 합니다.

그러자 네이버가 월 4,900원 무제한 무료배송 카드를 ���냈습니다. 이탈 고객을 붙잡기 위한 꽤 강한 승부수로 보입니다.

쿠팡은 월 7,800원에
쿠팡배송, 쿠팡플레이, 쿠팡이츠 무료배송.

네이버는 월 4,900원에
무료배송, 넷플릭스, 네이버멤버십 포인트.

쿠팡이 다시 살아나나 싶었는데, 네이버가 바로 견제구를 던졌네요.

네이버와 쿠팡의 대결 구도가 점점 더 흥미진진해지고 있습니다.

둘이 치고 박고 싸우는 사이에 주가는 지지부진..