Fremm

Qualitative investor attuned to exponential thinking. I deep dive and focus on a single stock at a time as if I'm the owner. Right now, it is $IREN.

[Fremm @fremmseven]

Today I spoke for the first time on @FransBakker9812's space about $IREN. Some of my key points for the short term and long term:
Short term:
1. IREN is going through a rerate as an AI company. The initial move was early movers who could see beyond the bitcoin miner framing and recognised that IREN's transition to AI would compound on their proven blueprint of mass-printing bitcoin mining facilities which are not far off AI data centers. Most of the market hasn't caught up yet. The Mirantis acquisition, on top of all its software benefits, has a second-order effect of accelerating the rebrand. My thesis is this rerating has just started and will continue as new tech-native investors discover IREN through Mirantis and realise the potential.
2. It's been ~6 months since the Microsoft deal. I didn't expect a new deal at last earnings — IREN is conservative and was always going to execute on Microsoft before committing to another customer. That's partly to prove out the blueprint for the first time post-BTC-to-AI-HPC pivot, and partly to manage the risk of scaling too fast. Now that Dan has posted about delivering on the first Microsoft tranches, my thesis is they'll have the confidence to scale up and run multiple build-outs in parallel. Combine that with the "advanced negotiations" language from last earnings, and I wouldn't be surprised by a deal before or at earnings — either a new customer or a Microsoft extension. With the blueprint now battle-tested through production hell, I also wouldn't be surprised by a second deal at the same time or shortly after (given the 6 months – almost 2 quarters of no deal), to scale data center production simultaneously. The constraint is no longer execution risk — it's capital, and that's what the ATM is for.
3. IREN has been plastering the US and Australia with ad spend. Knowing how conservative they are with capital, I doubt they'd let that momentum die without capitalising on it short-term. That leads me to expect (one or the other) an announcement on their enterprise strategy targeting higher margin, easier to serve customers than just Hyperscalers or something specifically in Australia.
4. I find it hard to believe IREN hasn't front-run commercial negotiations ahead of Sweetwater energising and the Microsoft deal completing. Having that much uncontracted power sitting available without a deal lined up to keep monetisation going feels off for such a highly competent pair of co-founders from deep infrastructure banking backgrounds.
5. IREN has dropped substantial announcements in the last few weeks — Horizon progress, Sweetwater energised, the Mirantis acquisition — all before the earnings call. Hard to believe they'd reveal all of that with nothing left to disclose at earnings. Contrast with last earnings, where they had nothing big and saved the Oklahoma site reveal for the call itself.
6. Mirantis was happy to be acquired in 100% shares. Employees who've built that company over 20+ years accepting stock-only consideration suggests they see the growth ahead in IREN — and potentially what's coming near-term in price accretion (a customer deal).
7. There's a narrative that Dan and Will don't care about short-term price action vs long-term shareholder returns. But with the ATM they need to tap soon — to fund more build-outs and effectively pay for Mirantis — I find it hard to believe they'd let the stock tank when they need to dilute. I think they've been very coordinated with announcements for exactly this reason. They're price-conscious, they have incentive to drive the share price short-term, and they have a final card to play at earnings.
8. Nebius has run hard recently — to a P/E of over 4,000 as per Yahoo and Google Finance. IREN trades around 40 — ~100x lower. With the software FUD now resolved by Mirantis, I think the market will start to see IREN as the more undervalued pure-AI play vs NBIS.
9. In addition to the ‘IREN has no software’ FUD being solved now, there was also light FUD around IREN being an Australian company and therefore less familiar and trustworthy to some American and International investors. I believe with an announcement for an expansion in Australia, this FUD will turn into a strength as IREN’s roots proves to be a highly valuable access point to Australia and even Asia-Pacific. This is similar to NBIS’s perceived strength of being an access point to Europe.
Long term:
1. IREN is a one-of-one company. Dan and Will Roberts are first-principles operators who saw the AI compute demand over 5 years ago, knew how to fund it by mining bitcoin and selling it at the spot rate without needing a customer, prioritised renewables from day one, and understood the importance of investing in local communities to avoid NIMBY pushback. Best management team in the space, in my opinion. The market has largely got it wrong assuming that printing AI data center requires a deep tech background — in my view infrastructure banking and the ability to identify, procure and develop large scale sites is far more relevant - everything else is an add-on.
2. AI compute is the oil of the digital world. It's required to run every industry efficiently and competitively from here on. You can't model IREN's future market cap based on point-in-time GPU pricing. Even applying growth rates is too thin — rates can move exponentially via second-order effects (supply chain disruption, AI breakthroughs that ramp compute requirements). This isn't quantitative; it's probabilistic and exponential. If NVDA can be a future 20T market cap company, I wouldn't be surprsied by IREN being a 1T company emerging as the most competent company to plug their chips in.
3. IREN has the best blueprint for mass producing data centers. Vertical integration means they control the refinement loop — every nut and bolt of the build process. If Coreweave or NBIS lease out one piece of that process to another player, how can they control quality? How can they understand how to improve it? IREN can, because they own the whole process. That closed-loop quality feedback lets them refine the blueprint to the point where they can run it across multiple parallel processes with little incremental risk. As time compounds, that's what monetises their estimated 10GW pipeline runway (4.5GW disclosed so far) exponentially faster than their competitors.
4. I've often joked that IREN is the SpaceX for Earth. Like SpaceX, IREN sits at the intersection of three vectors: datacentres are extremely high value right now, has an infinite TAM, and very difficult to build. That difficulty is the part the market hasn't priced in yet — and it's what will eventually command a multiple. SpaceX and NVIDIA both have plenty of competitors but emerge as winners because they built proprietary mass-production blueprints with closed feedback loops and first-principles thinking. Other neocloud players are too diversified or too leveraged on outsourced construction. NBIS has interests well outside data centers. Coreweave is software-first and leases its construction to Core Scientific — so they don't really own their construction quality in full. IREN isn't missing the forest for the trees. They know the real neocloud edge is compute, and that vertically integrating construction — though hard — leads to better service quality, performance, and blueprint refinement for the next datacenter. @mikealfred

[Fremm @fremmseven]

@jiahanjimliu @StockAnalystPro 1% position Jim?

[Fremm @fremmseven]

@DollarCostAvg i think Dan likes it too 👀👀

[Fremm @fremmseven]

@DollarCostAvg thanks mate! lets go!! 🚀🚀🚀🚀

[Fremm @fremmseven]

Don’t evaluate a stock through the rear-view mirror. Evaluate it through the windscreen. Steve Jobs made plenty of ego-driven mistakes, but he course-corrected enough for Apple to become a trillion-dollar company. Time is a wonderful remedy, and Dan has plenty of it to reflect, adapt and improve, especially given the strength of IREN’s asset base and the immense tailwinds the company has from AI. People and companies alike are works in progress. They can improve over time; they are not static reflections of their past mistakes. As Buffett said, invest in a business so good that even a fool could run it and it would still make money. In this case, Dan is no fool. He is simply not perfect, and no one is. The business itself remains incredible, especially at the current discount. NFA.

[Fremm @fremmseven]

FounderMaxxing.

$IREN Chairman David Bartholomew recently published a letter defending the controversial RSU compensation plan for founders Dan and Will Roberts.

I’m not going to dive into every negative aspect of the plan at the risk of being labelled a bear, despite $IREN still being my largest position.

However, from what I have gauged, a large number of retail shareholders strongly disagree with the letter, largely because it contains several major logical flaws.

The biggest, in my opinion, is the argument that the Roberts brothers own a comparatively small percentage of the company relative to other founders.

This is like buying a house with a smaller upfront deposit, contributing less towards the mortgage than your neighbours, and then complaining that you own less of the property.

Other founders often commit more of their own capital upfront and buy back stock during periods of weakness. The Roberts brothers had opportunities to increase their ownership, including around the company’s lows in 2025, but chose not to.

There are plenty of other questionable arguments too.

The justification of time-based vesting over meaningful performance hurdles. The idea that the brothers might leave their own startup immediately before a critical inflection point after spending eight years building towards it. The implication that they could simply recreate the same opportunity elsewhere, despite the secured gigawatts of power remaining with $IREN.

But I’m ready to move on.

The positive way to look at this plan is through the lens of FounderMaxxing.

We know that many of the best-performing companies of the past few decades were founder-led for a very long time: Amazon, Palantir, Meta, Google, Tesla, Apple—you get the point.

Well, $IREN is taking that model to the extreme.

By maximally compensating the founders through an enormous RSU plan, with time-based vesting and no arbitrary operating targets, the board is giving them complete freedom to pursue what they believe is the optimal decision at every point between now and 2033.

At the same time, their financial incentives are heavily tied to shareholder interests on the upside—although, importantly, not on the downside. The higher the share price, the greater the value of their RSU payout.

Seed investors who know them personally have hinted that Dan Roberts wants to become the richest man in Australia.

Well, he now has a very clear and motivating path towards achieving that ambition—but he can only get there if the $IREN share price appreciates enormously.

That is the FounderMaxxing trade-off.

The risk is that your trust in the Roberts brothers must now be sky-high—higher than it would under a normal compensation structure. You are placing enormous faith in their integrity, capital allocation and long-term judgement.

The reward is a maximally incentivised pair of founders who could theoretically deliver far more than they would under a conventional incentive plan—and who have delivered so far: a near 10x return over the past 24 months (depending on where you bought it), with what appears to be a clearer runway towards the next 10x.

So, to continue holding $IREN, you have to ask yourself:

Do you trust the integrity of the Roberts brothers?

Do you trust the confidence that recent hires, institutional investors and acquisition counterparties have placed in them?

And do you believe in FounderMaxxing—the idea that highly incentivised founders remain the most powerful force for building exceptional technology companies?

I know that I do.

But you have to make that decision for yourself.

[Fremm @fremmseven]

@LandoInvests looking forward to it mate! lets go 🚀

[Fremm @fremmseven]

Hi mate, I haven’t met them in person, though I’d love to @danroberts0101. I’ve studied them extensively through the sources you mentioned and many others. I’ve also spoken with various seed investors who have no doubt that Dan “The Difference” Roberts is a workhorse, a generational talent, and will undoubtedly become one of the richest people in Australia. I initially discovered IREN through a fairly unconventional path, unlike many of the Bitcoin bros. My wife works at Macquarie Bank, where the Roberts brothers and many of IREN’s other executives came from, and she has told me over and over again about Macquarie’s rigour and competence as one of the largest infrastructure banks in the world. When you add all of that up, I find it very difficult to believe that Dan and Will Roberts don’t possess the work ethic and integrity required to succeed at Macquarie at such a young age. Both of them made VP before their 30s I believe, Will founded the digital assets team, and Dan had a generational run at Palisade Investment Partners, going from Director to co-owner over eight years. In my view, they are highly dedicated, loyal, and effective leaders who only move on to the next big thing. And if all of that still isn’t enough, IREN has 5GW+ of secured power, not including any undisclosed capacity. The company is trading far below book value, in my opinion, because the PPE line on the balance sheet likely doesn’t reflect anything close to an AI multiple. Ask yourself: how much would the Mag 7 or the frontier labs pay to acquire 5GW+ of secured power not including any IP? I’m certain it would be more than $14 billion, and I’m sure as hell not shorting 5GW of compute at this price.

[Fremm @fremmseven]

@chinoalemano Bro when you gonna follow me back and read my DMs 😂

[Fremm @fremmseven]

For dedicated $IREN holders this space is a must listen. For those of you who tried to trade in and out of $IREN you’d better get back in soon. Fade $IREN at your own peril, nobody is bullish enough. You were warned. NFA.

[Lando @LandoInvests]

RAISE Day 1 Summary $IREN:

‣ Horizon 1 handover confirmed 19th July
‣ Commisioning H2
‣ MSFT very happy with IREN so far, very hands off. Great partners.
‣ IREN on call with NVDA basically everyday
‣ Deals signed today are even better than 2 months ago.
‣ Pre payments sweetspot now between 25-40 roughly. Some even offering 100%
‣ IREN GB300 NVIDIA EXEMPLAR Cloud certified. Likely announced next week. Only THREE have this right now.
‣ IREN selected with small number for VERA rubin for testing VERY SOON. Unofficially late EOY mass production. Likely early 2027
‣ H5-H6, Sweetwater 1 Vera Rubin
‣ Mirantis deal closing this month is the aim
‣ Semi conductor shortage micron $MU seeing into 2031

h/t: @FinGigawatt

https://t.co/Rx84G8EYzc

[Fremm @fremmseven]

@LandoInvests 100% prepayment is bloody insane!!

[Fremm @fremmseven]

@LandoInvests @jiahanjimliu So BULLISH!! Thanks mate

[Fremm @fremmseven]

Outstandingly fair letter by @neel_epochal. Answers and reform will be great for the long term health of the company.

[Neel Khokhani @neel_epochal]

Today I published an open letter to David Bartholomew, Chairman of $IREN.
Two requests: an independent review of the 18.2M RSU grant to the co-CEOs — time-vested, no performance conditions, ~5% dilution — and a board-level review of director conduct on this platform.
Written constructively. I'll publish the Board's response with the same prominence.
Full letter below. 👇

[Fremm @fremmseven]

@neel_epochal 👀

[Fremm @fremmseven]

@neel_epochal @mikealfred peanut gallery 👀

[Fremm @fremmseven]

@luvthefive @LandoInvests Let’s go 🚀

[Fremm @fremmseven]

Great work putting the clues together @LandoInvests. We should get more material clues soon.

I’ve been saying it for a while now, I’m not selling a share until we reach $1000-$4000. Have a long term mindset and avoid too much options and margin.

[Lando @LandoInvests]

Alright $IREN crew let's breakdown this post a bit more:

IREN has been networking relentlessly the past few months. There's been lots of unsettled investors, questionable decisions, and little communication between management + the rest of the world.

With that said, I believe we're in the quiet period before multiple announcements.

Let's review May 1 - Present:

‣ Energized Sweetwater 1 (1.4GW)
‣ Acquired @MirantisIT for $625 Million
‣ Secured a 5-year, $3.4 billion contract to provide cloud services using air-cooled Blackwell GPUs for @nvidia
‣ Granted NVIDIA a 5-year right to buy up to 30 million shares of IREN stock at a fixed $70/share
‣ Acquired Ingenostrum (Nostrum Group) locking down 490MW of grid-connected capacity in Spain
‣ Announced and Priced Upsized Convertible Notes Offering (Due to overwhelming institutional demand, the deal was upsized from $2.0 billion to $2.6 billion within 24 hours)
‣ Closed $3.0 Billion Convertible Senior Notes & Capped Calls @ 1.00% (Insane!!)
‣ Acquired Awaken Agency
‣ Projected $4.4 Billion ARR Target
‣ Secured $3.65B GPU Financing: Closed an investment-grade, asset-backed financing facility to buy GPUs, while partnering with $BE Networks to roll out custom "AI Factories" using NVIDIA DSX architecture
‣ Announced First Australian Data Center Campus in APAC (800 MW)
‣ Completed Acquisition of Nostrum Group
‣ Jefferies Initiates Coverage with a Huge $79 Buy Rating
‣ @warriors Golden State Warriors Jersey Partnership (visibility in the Bay)
‣ Added to the Large-Cap Russell 1000 Index
‣ Poached Key Executives from Oracle and Google: Appointed Kambiz Aghili (former VP at Oracle Cloud Infrastructure) as Chief Product Officer and Michael Nudelman (former Google infrastructure lead) as Chief Development Officer
‣ Shortlisted for a Mind-Boggling $15B–$22B Anthropic Deal in Australia: A confidential Request for Proposal (RFP) leaked by The Australian Financial Review revealed that @Anthropic is seeking 1.4 Gigawatts of data center capacity in Australia

Now that we've reviewed I'm going to give you the pieces, and I'll let you put the puzzle together:

‣ RAISE Summit starts today for @IREN_Ltd, I'm going to breakdown IREN, Mirantis, and NVIDIA by teams:
1. IREN: Kent Draper (Chief Commercial Officer), Gabriel Nebreda (Head of Spain Operations), Chris Parker (Chief Marketing Officer), and Denis Skrinnikoff (Chief Technology Officer)
2. Mirantis: Alex Freedland (Co-Founder & CEO) and Shaun O'Meara (Chief Technology Officer)
3. NVIDIA: Paolo Guglielmini (Vice President EMEA), Rod Evans (VP Supercomputing & AI Cloud Infrastructure EMEA), Dion Harris (Senior Director, HPC & AI Infrastructure GTM), and Boris Neiman (Solutions Architect Manager)

‣ What does EMEA stand for?
- Europe, Middle East, and Africa
‣ Why is it important?
- EMEA represents a highly fragmented regulatory environment (driven by the European Union's strict GDPR, AI Act, and data sovereignty mandates). It symbolizes the push for countries to build and control their own computing power, data, and models within their actual geographic borders. (sounds a lot like IREN right?)
- IREN engaging heavily with the EMEA heads of NVIDIA symbolizes an attempt to become the premier alternative cloud provider for an entire hemisphere that is actively looking to reduce its total dependence on traditional US hyperscalers.

‣ Why is Spain important for IREN? (490MW)
- Spain has abundant renewable energy and strong fiber infrastructure. By connecting directly with Paolo Guglielmini (NVIDIA VP EMEA, who leads regional Sovereign AI deployment), IREN is signaling that Spain is their beachhead to become the primary Sovereign-Ready cloud alternative for the entire European Union

Closing Statement:
I don't believe for one second that IREN raised billions of dollars (via notes or ATM), bought an ad-heavy headline slot at RAISE/GSW sponsporship, gave themselves an egregious pay package, and gave NVIDIA millions of equity warrants just to sit there and do nothing.

They locked down a massive position in the European energy pipeline (Nostrum), integrated an automated enterprise cloud software stack (Mirantis), poached elite hyperscale operators from Oracle and Google, and built their entire footprint natively inside NVIDIA’s structural reference framework (DSX/DGX).

By sitting on panels with NVIDIA’s highest-level EMEA execution and infrastructure teams right now, they're sending a massive signal: They have built a fully vertical, renewable-energy-backed, sovereign-ready AI Cloud alternative.

Can you solve it?
https://t.co/UtQWs4UxDA

[Fremm @fremmseven]

He never talked me off the ledge. I used the wrong words which caused a misunderstanding later clarified. I have never sold a single share of IREN since the dip to $38. If I believed it would dip to $20 I would have sold, please see receipts on my posts. I’m not calling for a definitive $4000. I have lofty targets for my personal sake so I can root my thinking to exponentials. $1T is the new $1B good luck 👍.

[Fremm @fremmseven]

Never said we will go to $20. I said that IREN is able to see around the corners and prevent the stock from falling to $20 so that ATM is not tapped at an unfavourable price. Not to mention our asset base as a floor stability. Please listen to the full conversation in full as it develops not just cherry pick.

[Fremm @fremmseven]

Absolutely. EU makes a ton of sense given the top secrecy with IR, 100% renewable energy alignment with EU values, IREN is politically agnostic to the EU being an AU entity not a US or CN entity, plenty of available uncontracted energy and runway unlike competitors, Nostrum Acquisition for serviceability from Spain, Mirantis Acquisition for software services that GOVTs require, and vertical integration for simplified vendor management and compliance controls.