cigarettes

l'esprit américain

[Robin Hanson @robinhanson]

In 1872, Jules Verne published Around the World in Eighty Days, wherein Phileas Fogg says (on Oct. 2, 1872):

"A true Englishman doesn't joke when he is talking about so serious a thing as a wager. I will bet 20,000 pounds against anyone who wishes that I will make the tour of the world in 80 days or less".

Narrator says: "Everybody knows that England is the world of betting men, who are of a higher class than mere gamblers; to bet is in the English temperament. Not only the members of the Reform, but the general public, made heavy wagers for or against Phileas Fogg."

[Cajetan @MonteCarloSpam]

Annual citations to “The Promise of Prediction Markets” by @robinhanson.

Surprisingly, 2024 and 2025 did not see increased activity, but research is really taking off this year.

[PredictionMarketTrader @PredMTrader]

Notice how no one on prediction market twitter recognizes any of these people

Just goes to show the biggest winners on prediction markets don’t hang out on Twitter

[cigarettes @friendlyping]

i call bullshit

[Netflix @netflix]

Whether it’s the World Cup or Taylor Swift’s wedding, tens of millions are betting on the outcomes of almost anything using prediction markets.

Go inside the world of this legal but controversial form of gambling in INSTADOCS: THE PREDICTION GAMES. Premiering July 26.

[Suhail Kakar @SuhailKakar]

last week alone, polymarket paid over $4m back to users, just for trading on the platform

since this program started we've now paid over $35m directly back to traders

that's the whole point, the people using it should share in it

more trading rewards coming soon

[cigarettes @friendlyping]

@holy_moses7 hedging for peace

[cigarettes @friendlyping]

@MonteCarloSpam OTC trading should also allow you to trade on any tick size

[cigarettes @friendlyping]

🚬

[Cajetan @MonteCarloSpam]

The trillion dollar market makers in question are a random French guy with a VPN and a Claude subscription, a JS intern without a return offer, and @Eltonma

[cigarettes @friendlyping]

good job

[Josh @devjoshstevens]

What a day, but on a more positive note, we did a release this morning, and the latency on the CLOB is now 500% better. You should see a huge difference. Thanks for waiting for the fix. It was a hard one because it was at the lowest level of the services. We have many other fixes coming in the next weeks to take this down even further.

[cigarettes @friendlyping]

@MonteCarloSpam congrats, i started with 200 btw :)

[yung macro 宏观年少传奇 @apralky]

please consult the comprehensive theory