François Berrier

Quant Trader

[François Berrier @fripchoc]

happened a few times … and they have already discussed this Matt. If you want to find some examples go to their dashboard’s section Purchases and look for weeks where the sats per share decreased.
Over time their stated goal is to increase sats per share … when the stock was trading at a large mnav premium this was easy, now they have to combine the common ATM and the prefs ATM to do that while balancing debt ratio. This means individual capital raises might not be accretive (like this past week’s) but combined together over a few weeks they are.

[François Berrier @fripchoc]

@BitcoinPierre few understand it because, unlike most theorems, it’s the hypotheses that are hard to derive, not the conclusion.

[François Berrier @fripchoc]

@PunterJeff @Werkman probably nothing 🙂

[François Berrier @fripchoc]

@PunterJeff @coffeebreak_YT Proper spanking

[François Berrier @fripchoc]

@AdamBLiv @mikewmunz not only this is not new news, but they in fact already did sell btc in the past for tax purposes if i recall correctly.

[François Berrier @fripchoc]

@FinFreedom414 that R2 is in sample. Out of sample, the forecasts of the PL have been quite poor actually.

[François Berrier @fripchoc]

@roxom @STRC_live 😎

[François Berrier @fripchoc]

@HermesLux the “discount from spot” only applies if you use mnav = MC/NAV. 1.25 is EV/NAV, more lime a traditional equity premium.
Last week’s operation was barely accretive (47 sats per share :) but is nevertheless very good as it backs STRC without any dilution at all!

[François Berrier @fripchoc]

@d_sisley29 @_Adrian @CrisReed Second order effect: the btc purchases, that both ATM fund, are pushing the common up since the anticipated outperformance of BTC vs USD goes to the common shareholders, not to the debt/pref holders.

[François Berrier @fripchoc]

@d_sisley29 @_Adrian @CrisReed First order effect: because the STRC ATM, when active, is 50-100% of the volume above par. MSTR ATM is usually in low single digit percentage points, or even basis points of trading volume.

[François Berrier @fripchoc]

@PinkShirtMigo @saylor @Strategy more fundamentally: looking at their bitcoin purchase price without looking at their common shares sell price is just nonsense.

[François Berrier @fripchoc]

@dmendel305 @ByteSideQuest @saylor @Strategy no you cant, cuz your mnav would be 1. that is rather basic maths.

[François Berrier @fripchoc]

@Simi_2210_ 179

[François Berrier @fripchoc]

@danheld maybe

[François Berrier @fripchoc]

@Etherealize_io lol … wipe out technical debt by adding 2 servings of spaghetti code on top the existing mess 🤡

[François Berrier @fripchoc]

@_Adrian @Reddit Are you telling me they are worse than “but the ATM” Twitter? 😂

[François Berrier @fripchoc]

@ActuallyClimber Not the arbitrage between Bitcoin CAGR and pref yield. Arbitrage between DCA-Bitcoin CAGR and pref yield. Details matter.

[François Berrier @fripchoc]

@FaithOdjugo @elonmusk @jack you're stopping one step too early: reality is the code as well. (best explained by Minsky ... first 5 minutes of this if you are curious: https://t.co/3OtMSrDDLb)

[François Berrier @fripchoc]

@ArthurMacwaters the belief that GDP per capita is a good proxy for cost of living is logically false

(maybe replace by real disposable income net of direct and indirect taxes)