@deepvaluedude Electron is fairly insulated from this, many (i'd suggest at least half?) of launches at this scale will be HASTE, which doesn't have really any competition coming online at all yet. Firefly has aspirations but not a functioning vehicle.
@deepvaluedude I can see a market where electron is at 50-100 launches/yr at a premium price. 0.5-1bn/yr profit. It's probably the strongest part of the company ironically.
@deepvaluedude same people who cheer on doubling mfcturing in tx and taking on additional production with JLEO suddenly shocked company needs more money to secure more launch.
Manage leverage and stay objective. This is accretive to present value.
@deepvaluedude@SpacBobby Seen posts glorifying 10x earnings on a cashflow stream facing what will end up being a textbook example of business decline. 10x is like a 5% cagr multiple, not a "we need to rebuild this business from the bottom up" multiple. They may NEVER recover the NPV.
@SpacBobby@deepvaluedude Also what a turnaround. You just totally dropped the notion that internal fcf will fund anything after being confronted with a pretty scary fact. The reality is that irdm revenues will probably HALVE, and will eat into the entire parent company over the next few years.
@SpacBobby@deepvaluedude It's uncanny how similar it is to the tsla sentiment over the last 5 years. "You think youre smarter than elon?" "He has a bigger plan"
@SpacBobby@deepvaluedude Every rocketlab thesis boils down to leaning on the CEO to unveil some mystery high value application, even after he's spent $8bn of shareholder value on nothing